Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-11 (section)

==== 11.3.10.2 Projected Impacts ====

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Risks for the energy sector are projected to increase with climate change ( ''medium confidence'' ). Projected increases in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves, fires, droughts and wind-storms would increase risks for energy supply and demand ( [[#AEMO--2020b|AEMO, 2020b]] ; [[#ESCI--2021|ESCI, 2021]] ). Households are unevenly vulnerable to energy sector risks due to varying housing quality and health dependencies (11.3.6). In New Zealand, a warmer climate and increasing energy efficiency is projected to marginally reduce annual average peak electricity heating demand ( [[#Stroombergen--2006|Stroombergen et al., 2006]] ; [[#MBIE--2019a|MBIE, 2019a]] ). Winter and spring inflows to main hydro lakes are projected to increase 5–10% and may reduce hydroelectric energy vulnerability ( [[#McKerchar--2004|McKerchar and Mullan, 2004]] ; [[#Poyck--2011|Poyck et al., 2011]] ; [[#Stevenson--2018|Stevenson et al., 2018]] ). However, major electricity supply disruptions are projected to increase as dependence on electricity grows from 25% of total energy in 2016 to 58% in 2050 ( [[#Transpower--2020|Transpower, 2020]] ).

In Australia, the total heating and cooling energy demand of 5-star energy-rated houses is projected to change by 2100 ( [[#Wang--2010|Wang et al., 2010]] ). At 2°C global warming, the estimated change in demand is −27% in Hobart, −21% in Melbourne, +61% in Darwin, +67% in Alice Springs and +112% in Sydney. For a 4°C global warming, the changes are −48%, −14%, +135%, +213% and +350% respectively.

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