Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-14 (section)

===== 14.5.8.1.3 Energy, oil and gas, and mining =====

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Climate change is increasing the demand for electric power for cooling and threatens existing power supply ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#14.5.5|Section 14.5.5]] ). Increased energy demand often occurs during peak energy usage and especially during heatwaves ( [[#Cruz--2013|Cruz and Krausmann, 2013]] ; [[#Leong--2015|Leong and Donner, 2015]] ). Cooling represented 74% of peak electricity demand in Philadelphia on a particularly hot day in July 2011 ( [[#Waite--2017|Waite et al., 2017]] ; [[#IEA--2018b|IEA, 2018b]] ). In Canada, warming temperatures are expected to reduce demand for heating by 18–33% and increase demand for cooling by 14–126% by 2070 compared with 1959–1989 and 1998–2014 baseline periods, respectively ( [[#Berardi--2020|Berardi and Jafarpur, 2020]] ). The effects on hydropower are uneven across the region with the potential for increases in capacity in Canada but declines of over 20% in Mexico (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) ( [[#Turner--2017|Turner et al., 2017]] ). Electricity demand in the USA is projected to increase by 5.3% per degree Celsius rise in temperature ( [[#Hsiang--2017|Hsiang et al., 2017]] ). Energy infrastructure, such as drilling platforms, refineries and pipelines, and evacuation routes, are also increasingly vulnerable to higher sea levels, hurricanes, storm surges, mobile multi-year sea ice, erosion, inland flooding, wildfires and other climate-related changes ( [[#Zamuda--2018|Zamuda et al., 2018]] ).

Operational efficiency and human safety at mining and energy production sites is expected to be adversely affected by increases in extreme events ( [[#14.2|Section 14.2]] ), including storms, heavy rains, riverine flooding and wildfires ( ''high confidence'' ). General remoteness of many mining sites (especially in the North American Arctic) exacerbates risks related to emergency responses to extreme events such as wildfire ( ''medium confidence'' ). The 2016 Fort McMurray wildfire in Alberta, Canada, forced the evacuation of 88,000 people and the shutdown of mine operations. Damages were minimal because companies had undertaken proactive FireSmart interventions specifically developed for the industry (see Box 14.1; [[#Council%20of%20Canadian%20Academies--2019|Council of Canadian Academies, 2019]] ). Onshore oil field production in Tabasco, Mexico, which accounts for 16% of the country’s daily output, was interrupted by extensive flooding ( [[#Cruz--2013|Cruz and Krausmann, 2013]] ). Two-thirds of mine operators globally, including major operators in North America, have experienced production challenges related to water shortages and flooding ( [[#Carbon%20Disclosure%20Project--2013|Carbon Disclosure Project, 2013]] ). Water availability stress due to climate change is lower in Canada than in the USA and Mexico, and mines in Canada may be less exposed to this risk ( [[#World%20Resourcs%20Institute--2012|World Resourcs Institute, 2012]] ) with some exceptions, that is, water-intensive oil sands mining in the Athabasca River basin in Canada ( [[#14.5.3|Section 14.5.3]] ; [[#Leong--2016|Leong and Donner, 2016]] ).Warming temperatures also have the potential to alter the nature, characteristics and quality of mineral resources such as kaolin or limestone ( [[#Phillips--2016|Phillips, 2016]] ).

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