Editing IPCC:AR6/SROCC/Chapter-4 (section)

==== 4.3.3.4 Salinisation ====

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With rising sea levels, saline water intrusion into coastal aquifers and surface waters and soils is expected to be more frequent and enter farther landwards. Salinisation of groundwater, surface water and soil resources also increases with land-based drought events, decreasing river discharges in combination with water extraction and SLR ''(high confidence).''

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===== 4.3.3.4.1 Coastal aquifers and groundwater lenses =====

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Groundwater volumes will primarily be affected by variations in precipitation patterns (Taylor et al., 2013; Jiménez Cisneros et al., 2014), which are expected to increase water stress in small islands (Holding et al., 2016). While SLR will mostly impact groundwater quality (Bailey et al., 2016) and in turn exacerbate salinisation induced by marine flooding events (Gingerich et al., 2017), it will also affect the watertable height (Rotzoll and Fletcher, 2013; Jiménez Cisneros et al., 2014; Masterson et al., 2014; Werner et al., 2017). In addition, the natural migration of groundwater lenses inland in response to SLR can also be severely constrained by urbanisation, for example, in semi-arid South Texas, USA (Uddameri et al., 2014).

These changes will affect both freshwater availability (for drinking water supply and agriculture) and vegetation dynamics. At many locations, however, direct anthropogenic influences, such as groundwater pumping for agricultural or urban uses, already impact salinisation of coastal aquifers more strongly than what is expected from SLR in the 21st century (Ferguson and Gleeson, 2012; Jiménez Cisneros et al., 2014; Uddameri et al., 2014), with trade-offs in terms of groundwater depletion that may contribute to anthropogenic subsidence and thus increase coastal flood risk. Recent studies also suggest that the influence of land-surface inundation on seawater intrusion and resulting salinisation of groundwater lenses on small islands has been underestimated until now (Ataie-Ashtiani et al., 2013; Ketabchi et al., 2014). Such impacts will potentially also combine with a projected drying of most of the tropical-to-temperate islands by mid-century (Karnauskas et al., 2016).

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===== 4.3.3.4.2 Surface waters =====

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The quality of surface water resources (in estuaries, rivers, reservoirs, etc.) can be affected by the intrusion of saline water, both in a direct (increased salinity) and indirect way (altered environmental conditions which change the behaviour of pollutants and microbes). In terms of direct impacts, statistical models and long-term (1950 to present) records of salinity show significant upward trends in salinity and a positive correlation between rising sea levels and increasing residual salinity, for example in the Delaware Estuary, USA (Ross et al., 2015). Higher salinity levels, further inland, have also been reported in the Gorai river basin, southwestern Bangladesh (Bhuiyan and Dutta, 2012), and in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. In the Mekong Delta for instance, salinity intrusion extends around 15 km inland during the rainy season and typically around 50 km during dry season (Gugliotta et al., 2017). Importantly, salinity intrusion in these deltas is caused by a variety of factors such as changes in discharge and water abstraction along with relative SLR. More broadly, the impact of salinity intrusion can be significant in river deltas or low-lying wetlands, especially during low-flow periods such as in the dry season (Dessu et al., 2018). In Bangladesh, for instance, some freshwater fish species are expected to lose their habitat with increasing salinity, with profound consequences on fish-dependent communities (Dasgupta et al., 2017). In the Florida Coastal Everglades, sea level increasingly exceeds ground surface elevation at the most downstream freshwater sites, affecting marine-to-freshwater hydrologic connectivity and transport of salinity and phosphorous upstream from the Gulf of Mexico. The impact of SLR is higher in the dry season when there is practically no freshwater inflow (Dessu et al., 2018). Salinity intrusion was shown to cause shifts in the diatom assemblages, with expected cascading effects through the food web (Mazzei and Gaiser, 2018). Salinisation of surface water may lead to limitations in drinking water supply (Wilbers et al., 2014), as well as to future fresh water shortage in reservoirs, for example in Shanghai (Li et al., 2015). Salinity changes the partitioning and mobility of some metals, and hence their concentration or speciation in the water bodies (Noh et al., 2013; Wong et al., 2015; de Souza Machado et al., 2018). Varying levels of salinity also influence the abundance and toxicity of ''Vibrio cholerae'' in the Ganges Delta (Batabyal et al., 2016).

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===== 4.3.3.4.3 Soils =====

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Salinisation is one of the major drivers of soil degradation, with sea water intrusion being one of the common causes (Daliakopoulos et al., 2016). In a study in the Ebro Delta, Spain, for instance, soil salinity was shown to be directly related to distances to the river, to the delta inner border, and to the old river mouth (Genua-Olmedo et al., 2016). Land elevation was the most important variable in explaining soil salinity.

SLR was also shown to decrease organic carbon (C <sub>org</sub> ) concentrations and stocks in sediments of salt marshes as reworked marine particles contribute with a lower amount of C <sub>org</sub> than terrigenous sediments. C <sub>org</sub> accumulation in tropical salt marshes can be as high as in mangroves and the reduction of C <sub>org</sub> stocks by ongoing SLR might cause high CO <sub>2</sub> releases (Ruiz-Fernández et al., 2018). In many cases attribution to SLR is missing, but, independent from clear attribution, sea water intrusion leads to a salinisation of exposed soils with changes in carbon dynamics (Ruiz-Fernández et al., 2018) and microbial communities (Sánchez-Rodríguez et al., 2017), soil enzyme activity and metal toxicity (Zheng et al., 2017). Water salinity levels in the pores of coastal marsh soils can become significantly elevated in just one week of flooding by sea water, which can potentially negatively impact associated microbial communities for significantly longer time periods (McKee et al., 2016). SLR will also alter the frequency and magnitude of wet/dry periods and salinity levels in coastal ecosystems, with consequences for the formation of climate relevant GHGs (Liu et al., 2017b) and therefore feedbacks to the climate.

Soil salinisation affects agriculture directly with impacts on plant germination (Sánchez-García et al., 2017), plant biomass (rice and cotton) production (Yao et al., 2015), and yield (Genua-Olmedo et al., 2016). Impact on agriculture is especially relevant in low-lying coastal areas where agricultural production is a major land use, such as in river deltas.

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