Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-9 (section)

===== 9.5.5.2.2 Projections =====

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Higher mean annual rainfall, particularly in the eastern parts of east Africa are projected at GWL 1.5°C and 2°C by 25 CORDEX models ( [[#Nikulin--2018|Nikulin et al., 2018]] ; [[#Osima--2018|Osima et al., 2018]] ). The additional 0.5°C of warming from 1.5°C increases average dry spell duration by between two and four days, except over southern Somalia where this is reduced by between 2–3 days ( [[#Hoegh-Guldberg--2018|Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018]] ; [[#Nikulin--2018|Nikulin et al., 2018]] ; [[#Osima--2018|Osima et al., 2018]] ; [[#Weber--2018|Weber et al., 2018]] ).

During the short rainy season, a longer rainfall season ( [[#Gudoshava--2020|Gudoshava et al., 2020]] ) and increased rainfall of over 100 mm on average is projected over the eastern Horn of Africa and regions of high/complex topography at GWL 4.5°C ( [[#Dunning--2018|Dunning et al., 2018]] ; [[#Endris--2019|Endris et al., 2019]] ; [[#Ogega--2020|Ogega et al., 2020]] ).

During the long rainy season, there is ''low confidence'' in projected mean rainfall change ( [[#Gutiérrez--2021|Gutiérrez et al., 2021]] ). Although some studies report projected increased end of century rainfall ( [[#Otieno--2013|Otieno and Anyah, 2013]] ; [[#Kent--2015|Kent et al., 2015]] ), the mechanisms responsible for this are not well-understood and a recent regional model study has detected no significant change ( [[#Cook--2020b|Cook et al., 2020b]] ). Projected wetting is opposite to the observed drying trends, giving rise to the ‘east African rainfall paradox’ ( [[#Rowell--2015|Rowell et al., 2015]] ; [[#Wainwright--2019|Wainwright et al., 2019]] ). In other parts of east Africa, no significant trend is evident ( [[#Ogega--2020|Ogega et al., 2020]] ), agreement on the sign of change is low, and in some regions, CMIP5 and CORDEX data show opposite signs of change ( [[#Lyon--2017|Lyon et al., 2017]] ; [[#Lyon--2017|Lyon and Vigaud, 2017]] ; [[#Osima--2018|Osima et al., 2018]] ; [[#Kendon--2019|Kendon et al., 2019]] ; [[#Ogega--2020|Ogega et al., 2020]] ).

Heavy rainfall events are projected to increase over the region at global warming of 2°C and higher ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Nikulin--2018|Nikulin et al., 2018]] ; [[#Finney--2020|Finney et al., 2020]] ; [[#Ogega--2020|Ogega et al., 2020]] ; [[#Li--2021|Li et al., 2021]] ). Drought frequency, duration and intensity are projected to increase in Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia and Tanzania but decrease or not change over Kenya, Uganda and the Ethiopian Highlands ( [[#Liu--2018c|Liu et al., 2018c]] ; [[#Nguvava--2019|Nguvava et al., 2019]] ; [[#Haile--2020|Haile et al., 2020]] ; [[#Spinoni--2020|Spinoni et al., 2020]] ).

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