Editing IPCC:AR6/WGI/Chapter-Atlas (section)

==== [[#Atlas.5.3.4|Atlas.5.3.4]] Assessment and Synthesis of Projections ====

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CMIP5 and CMIP6 surface temperature projections for South Asia are consistent across the range of GWLs withincreases greater than the global average, more so over TIB (Figure Atlas.1 7). CMIP6 models show higher sensitivity to greenhouse gas emissions, projecting higher warming for a given emissions scenario. The north-western parts of South Asia, mainly covering the Karakorum and Himalayan mountain ranges, are projected to warm more (over 6°C under SSP5-8.5, with higher warming in winters than in summer; Interactive Atlas) and this will accelerate glacier melting in the region. The warming pattern of maximum and minimum temperatures are projected to intensify in higher latitudes compared with mid-latitudes of South Asia in CMIP5 simulations for all RCP scenarios ( [[#Ullah--2020|Ullah et al., 2020]] ).

Seasonal precipitation projections show increased winter precipitation over the western Himalayas and decreased precipitation over the eastern Himalayas. On the other hand, summer precipitation projections show a robust increase over most of South Asia, with the largest over the arid region of southern Pakistan and in adjacent areas of India, under SSP5-8.5 ( [[#Almazroui--2020b|Almazroui et al., 2020b]] ). Daily bias-adjusted projections from 13 CMIP6 GCMs using all emissions scenarios project a warmer (3°C–5°C) and wetter (13–30%) climate in South Asia in the 21st century ( [[#Mishra--2020|Mishra et al., 2020]] ).

With continued global warming and anticipated reductions in anthropogenic aerosol emissions in the future, CMIP5 models project an increase in the mean and variability of summer monsoon precipitation over India by the end of the 21st century, together with substantial increases in daily precipitation extremes ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Krishnan--2020|Krishnan et al., 2020]] ), see also [[IPCC:Wg1:Chapter:Chapter-8#8.4.2.4|Section 8.4.2.4]] on changes in the South Asian monsoon. The CMIP5 GCMs consistently project an increase in moisture transport over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal towards the end of the 21st century, an increase in moisture convergence and consequent increases in monsoon rainfall over the Indo-Pakistan region which are higher under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 ( [[#Srivastava--2014|Srivastava and Delsole, 2014]] ; [[#Mei--2015|Mei et al., 2015]] ; [[#Latif--2018|Latif et al., 2018]] ). Out of 20 CMIP5 GCMs, four showed an increase in magnitude and lengthening of the summer monsoon across India under RCP8.5. The intensity of both strong and weak monsoons is projected to increase during the period 2051–2099 ( [[#Srivastava--2014|Srivastava and Delsole, 2014]] ).

Summer precipitation changes in South Asia are consistent between CMIP3 and CMIP5 projections, but the model spread is large for winter precipitation changes. Changes in summer monsoon rainfall will dominate annual changes over South Asia ( [[#Woo--2019|Woo et al., 2019]] ). CMIP3 GCMs project a gradual increase in annual precipitation over monsoon-dominated areas of Pakistan throughout the 21st Century and increases in humid and semi-arid climate areas ( [[#Saeed--2018|Saeed and Athar, 2018]] ).

Warming of 2.5°C–5°C is projected over northern Pakistan and India ( [[#Syed--2014|Syed et al., 2014]] ). CORDEX-South Asia projections over north-east India under RCP4.5 for the period 2011–2060, show increasing trends for both seasonal maximum and minimum temperature over north-east India (Interactive Atlas). The future projections of South Asian monsoon from the CORDEX-CORE exhibit a spatially robust delay in the monsoon onset, an increase in seasonality, and a reduction in the rainy season length over parts of South Asia at higher levels of radiative forcing ( [[#Ashfaq--2021|Ashfaq et al., 2021]] ).

With TIB continuing to warm, snow cover and snow water equivalent are projected to decrease but with regional differences due to synoptic influences (Cross-Chapter Box 10.4; [[#Wester--2019|Wester et al., 2019]] ). There is ''limited evidence'' on whether the ‘Karakoram Anomaly’ will persist in coming decades, but its long-term persistence is ''unlikely'' with continued projected warming ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[IPCC:Wg1:Chapter:Chapter-9#9.5.1.1|Section 9.5.1.1]] ). It is projected that peak river flow at higher altitudes will commence earlier, due to warming influences on snow cover area and snow/glacier melt rates and with more precipitation falling as rain rather than snow, and the magnitude and seasonality of flow will change over South Asia ( [[#Charles--2016|Charles et al., 2016]] ).

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