Editing IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-11 (section)

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-----

<div id="footnote-026" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-026-backlink|1]] Accumulated material stock initially was introduced in the analysis of past trends ( [[#Krausmann--2018|Krausmann et al. 2018]] ; [[#Wiedenhofer--2019|Wiedenhofer et al. 2019]] ), but recently it was incorporated in different forms in the long-term projections for the whole economy ( [[#Krausmann--2020|Krausmann et al. 2020]] ) and for some sectors (buildings and cars in [[#Hertwich--2020|Hertwich et al. (2020)]] ) with a steadily improving regional resolution ( [[#Krausmann--2020|Krausmann et al. 2020]] ).

<div id="footnote-025" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-025-backlink|2]] In 2020 this factor played on the reduction side as the COVID-19 crisis led to a global decline in demand for basic materials, respective energy use and emissions by 3–5 % ( [[#IEA--2020a|IEA 2020a]] ).

<div id="footnote-024" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-024-backlink|3]] This conclusion is also valid separately for developed countries and rest of the world ( [[#Krausmann--2020|Krausmann et al. 2020]] ).

<div id="footnote-023" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-023-backlink|4]] Cement stock for 2014 was estimated at 75 Gt ( [[#Cao--2020|Cao et al. 2020]] ).

<div id="footnote-022" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-022-backlink|5]] IRP (2020) estimate 2017 material extraction at 94 Gt yr –1 .

<div id="footnote-021" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-021-backlink|6]] It approaches 60 Gt yr –1 after construction and furniture wood and feedstock fuels are added ( [[#Krausmann--2018|Krausmann et al. 2018]] ; [[#Wiedenhofer--2019|Wiedenhofer et al. 2019]] ; UNEP and IRP 2020).

<div id="footnote-020" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-020-backlink|7]] [[#Mayer--2019|Mayer et al. (2019)]] found that in 2010–2014 the secondary-to-primary materials ratio for the EU-28 was slightly below 9%.

<div id="footnote-019" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-019-backlink|8]] According to [[#Circle%20Economy--2020|Circle Economy (2020)]] 8.6 Gt yr –1 or 8.6% of total inputs for all resources.

<div id="footnote-018" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-018-backlink|9]] Environmental impacts of secondary materials are much (up to an order of magnitude) lower compared to primary materials ( [[#OECD--2019a|OECD 2019a]] ; [[#IEA--2021a|IEA 2021a]] ; [[#Wang--2021|Wang et al. 2021]] ), but to enable and mobilise circularity benefits it requires social system and industrial designing transformation ( [[#Oberle--2019|Oberle et al. 2019]] ).

<div id="footnote-017" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-017-backlink|10]] [[#IEA--2021a|IEA (2021a)]] assesses the global plastics collection rate at 17% for 2020.

<div id="footnote-016" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-016-backlink|11]] Significant progress with data and indicators was reached in recent years with the development of several global coverage material flows datasets ( [[#Oberle--2019|Oberle et al. 2019]] ).

<div id="footnote-015" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-015-backlink|12]] China contributed three quarters of global industrial energy use increment in 2000–2014. Since 2014 China’s share in global industrial energy use has slowly declined, reaching about a third in 2018 ( [[#IEA--2020d|IEA 2020d]] ).

<div id="footnote-014" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-014-backlink|13]] This is close to 28.8% average 1900–2018 share of industrial energy use in global primary energy consumption. This share shows a slow decline trend (0.01% yr –1 ) in response to the growing share of services in global GDP, with about 60-year-long cycles.

<div id="footnote-013" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-013-backlink|14]] Industry also produces goods traditionally used as feedstock – hydrogen and ammonia – which in the future may be widely used as energy carriers.

<div id="footnote-012" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-012-backlink|15]] Mapping global flows of fuel feedstock allows for better tailoring of downstream mitigation options for chemical products ( [[#Levi--2018|Levi and Cullen 2018]] ).

<div id="footnote-011" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-011-backlink|16]] Indirect emissions are assessed based on the EDGAR database ( [[#Crippa--2021|Crippa et al. 2021]] ). The IEA database reports 6 Gt of CO 2 for 2019 ( [[#IEA--2020f|IEA 2020f]] ).

<div id="footnote-010" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-010-backlink|17]] Based on [[#Crippa--2021|Crippa et al. (2021)]] and [[#Minx--2021|Minx et al. (2021)]] . In 2019, industrial CO 2 -only emissions were 10.4 GtCO 2 , which due to wider industrial processes and product use (IPPU) coverage exceeds the CO 2 emission assessed by the [[#IEA--2021a|IEA (2021a)]] at 8.9 Gt for 2019 and at 8.4–8.5 Gt for 2020.

<div id="footnote-009" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-009-backlink|18]] According to the [[#IEA--2020f|IEA (2020f)]] , industry fuel combustion CO 2 -only emissions contributed 24% to total combustion emissions, but combined with indirect emission it accounted for 43% in 2018.

<div id="footnote-008" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-008-backlink|19]] There are suggestions to incorporate carbon uptake by cement-containing products in IPCC methodology for national GHG inventories ( [[#Stripple--2018|Stripple et al. 2018]] ).

<div id="footnote-007" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-007-backlink|20]] [[#Crippa--2021|Crippa et al. (2021)]] and the [[#IEA--2020a|IEA (2020a)]] assess materials-related scope 1 + 2 (direct and indirect emissions) correspondingly at 10.3 for 2019 and at 10.7 for 2018. [[#Hertwich--2021|Hertwich (2021)]] updated estimates for the global cradle-to-gate material-production-related GHG emissions for 2018 at 11.8 Gt (5.1 Gt for metals, 3.7 Gt for non-metallic minerals, 1.8 Gt for plastics and rubber, 1 Gt for wood) – which is about 69% of direct and indirect industrial emissions (waste excluded). These assessments are consistent as transportation of basic materials contributes around 1 GtCO 2 -eq. to GHG emissions.

<div id="footnote-006" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-006-backlink|21]] According to [[#Hertwich--2020|Hertwich et al. (2020)]] , of the 11.5 GtCO 2 -eq 2015 global materials GHG footprint about 5 Gt were embodied in buildings and infrastructure, and nearly 3 Gt in machinery, vehicles, and electronics.

<div id="footnote-005" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-005-backlink|22]] According to the [[#International%20Aluminium%20Institute--2021b|International Aluminium Institute (2021b)]] , scope 3 (cradle to gate) emissions from the aluminium industry in 2018 reached 1.127 GtCO 2 -eq or 17.6 tCO 2 -eq per tonne of primary aluminium. In the Beyond 2°C Scenario (B2DS) it is expected to be reduced to 2.5 tCO 2 -eq per tonne.

<div id="footnote-004" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-004-backlink|23]] In addition, there are many other studies available which have developed country-specific, technologically detailed scenarios for industry decarbonisation (e.g., [[#Gerbert--2018|Gerbert et al. 2018]] ) and a few which have investigated the decarbonisation prospects of individual industrial clusters ( [[#Schneider--2019|Schneider 2019]] ), but these types of studies are not discussed here.

<div id="footnote-003" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-003-backlink|24]] Most of the global mitigation scenarios solely focus on CO 2 emissions. Non-CO 2 emissions make up only a small share of the industry sector’s current CO 2 -eq. emissions and include N 2 O emissions (e.g., from nitric and adipic acid production), CH 4 emissions (e.g., from chemical production and iron and steel production) and various F-gases (such as perfluorocarbons from primary aluminium production and semiconductor manufacturing) (USEPA and ICF 2012; [[#Gambhir--2017|Gambhir et al. 2017]] ). Mitigation options for these non-CO 2 emissions are discussed in [[#Gambhir--2017|Gambhir et al. (2017)]] .

<div id="footnote-002" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-002-backlink|25]] Following the description of IEA SDS 2020 would limit the global temperature rise to below 1.8°C with a 66% probability if CO 2 emissions remain at net zero after 2070. If CO 2 emissions were to fall below net zero after 2070, then this would increase the possibility of reaching 1.5°C by the end of the century ( [[#IEA--2020c|IEA 2020c]] ).

<div id="footnote-001" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-001-backlink|26]] Other global mitigation scenarios (e.g., from [[#Tchung-Ming--2018|Tchung-Ming et al. (2018)]] and Shell Sky Scenario from [[#Shell--2018|Shell (2018)]] ) are not included in the following scenario comparison as these studies’ energy and emission base year data on the industry sector deviates considerably from the other three studies included in the comparison, which all use IEA data. Furthermore, unlike the other studies, [[#Tchung-Ming--2018|Tchung-Ming et al. (2018)]] do not provide detailed information on the steel, chemicals and concrete subsectors. Not included here but worth mentioning are many other sector-specific studies, for example Napp et al. (2019, 2014), which consider more technologically advanced decarbonisation routes for the sector.

<div id="footnote-000" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-000-backlink|27]] Note: In the described scenarios CCS was not taken into consideration as a mitigation option by the authors.