Editing IPCC:AR6/WGI/Chapter-Atlas (section)

==== [[#Atlas.5.3.5|Atlas.5.3.5]] Summary ====

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Mean, minimum and maximum daily temperatures in South Asia are increasing and winters are getting warmer faster than summers ( ''high confidence'' ). The South Asian monsoon has shown contrasting behaviour over India and Pakistan. There is ''high confidence'' that there has been a decrease in mean rainfall over most parts of the eastern and central north regions of India and an increase in precipitation in Pakistan.

Global model performance over the region has improved from CMIP3 to CMIP5 to CMIP6 in the multi-model ensemble-mean simulation of the amplitude and phase of the seasonal cycles of temperature and precipitation. However, there was no appreciable improvement in regions with steep orography, and there has remained substantial inter-model spread in seasonal and annual mean temperatures over South Asia with generally cold biases which are largest in the complex Karakorum and Himalayan mountain ranges. CMIP6 GCMs also show a dry bias (15–20%) in mean annual precipitation in the majority of the South Asia region with a wet bias in Nepal, Pakistan and northern India.

It is ''likely'' that surface temperatures over South Asia will increase more than the global average and more so over TIB, with projected increases of 4.6°C (3.4°C–6.0°C) during 2081–2100 compared with 1995–2014 under SSP5-8.5 and 1.3°C (0.7°C– 2.0°C) under SSP1-2.6 (Interactive Atlas). Summer monsoon precipitation in South Asia is ''likely'' to increase by the end of the 21st century while winter monsoons are projected to be drier. Over the same time periods CMIP6 models project an increase in annual precipitation in the range 14–36% under SSP5-8.5 and 0.4–16% under SSP1-2.6 ( ''medium confidence'' ).

With continued warming, TIB snow cover and snow water equivalent are ''likely'' to decrease and with more precipitation falling as rain rather than snow in SAS. It is projected that the peak river flow at higher altitudes will commence earlier due to the effect of warming on snow cover and snow/glacier melt rates, causing changes in magnitude and seasonality of flow.

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