Editing IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-3 (section)

=== 3.7.4 Energy ===

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Energy is relevant to SDG 7 (affordable and clean energy). Access to sufficient levels of reliable, affordable and renewable energy is essential for sustainable development. Currently, over 1 billion people still lack access to electricity ( [[#Ribas--2019|Ribas et al. 2019]] ).

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==== 3.7.4.1 Benefits of Avoided Climate Impacts Along Mitigation Pathways ====

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Climate change alters the production of energy through changes in temperature (hydropower, fossil fuel, nuclear, solar, bioenergy, transmission and pipelines), precipitation (hydropower, fossil fuel, nuclear and bioenergy), windiness (wind and wave), and cloudiness (solar) ( ''high confidence'' ). Increases in temperature reduce efficiencies of thermal power plants (e.g., fossil fuel and nuclear plants) with air-cooled condensers by 0.4–0.7% per °C increase in ambient temperature ( [[#Cronin--2018a|Cronin et al. 2018a]] ; [[#Simioni--2019|Simioni and Schaeffer 2019]] ; Yalew, S.G. et al. 2020). Potentials and costs for renewable energy technologies are also affected by climate change, though with considerable regional variation and uncertainty ( [[#Gernaat--2021|Gernaat et al. 2021]] ). Biofuel yields could increase or decrease depending on the level of warming, changes in precipitation, and the effect of CO 2 fertilisation ( [[#Calvin--2013|Calvin et al. 2013]] ; [[#Kyle--2014|Kyle et al. 2014]] ; [[#Gernaat--2021|Gernaat et al. 2021]] ). Coastal energy facilities could potentially be impacted by sea level rise ( [[#Brown--2014|Brown et al. 2014]] ).

The energy sector uses large volumes of water ( [[#Fricko--2016|Fricko et al. 2016]] ), making it highly vulnerable to climate change ( [[#Tan--2016|Tan and Zhi 2016]] ) ( ''high confidence'' ) ''.'' Thermoelectric and hydropower sources are the most vulnerable to water stress ( [[#van%20Vliet--2016|van Vliet et al. 2016]] ). Restricted water supply to these power sources can affect grid security and affordable energy access ( [[#Koch--2014|Koch et al. 2014]] ; [[#Ranzani--2018|Ranzani et al. 2018]] ; [[#Zhang--2018d|Zhang et al. 2018d]] ).The hydropower facilities from high mountain areas of Central Europe, Iceland, Western USA/Canada, and Latin America ( [[#Hock--2019|Hock et al. 2019]] ), as well as Africa and China ( [[#Bartos--2015|Bartos and Chester 2015]] ; [[#Gaupp--2015|Gaupp et al. 2015]] ; [[#Tarroja--2016|Tarroja et al. 2016]] ; [[#Conway--2017|Conway et al. 2017]] ; [[#Byers--2018|Byers et al. 2018]] ; [[#Eyer--2018|Eyer and Wichman 2018]] ; [[#Ranzani--2018|Ranzani et al. 2018]] ; [[#Savelsberg--2018|Savelsberg et al. 2018]] ; [[#Zhang--2018d|Zhang et al. 2018d]] ; [[#Zhou--2018|Zhou et al. 2018]] ; [[#Wang--2019|Wang et al. 2019]] ) have experienced changes in seasonality and availability.

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==== 3.7.4.2 Implications of Mitigation Efforts Along Pathways ====

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Extending energy access to all in line with SDG7 is compatible with strong mitigation consistent with the Paris Agreement ( ''high confidence'' ). The Low Energy Demand (LED) scenario projects that these twin goals can be achieved by relying heavily on energy efficiency and rapid social transformations ( [[#Grubler--2018|Grubler et al. 2018]] ). The IEA’s Sustainable Development Scenario ( [[#IEA--2020a|IEA 2020a]] ) achieves development outcomes but with higher average energy use, and bottom-up modelling suggests that decent living standards could be provided to all in 2040–2050 with roughly 150 EJ, or 40% of current final energy use ( [[#Millward-Hopkins--2020|Millward-Hopkins et al. 2020]] ; [[#Kikstra--2021b|Kikstra et al. 2021b]] ). The trade-offs between climate mitigation and increasing energy consumption of the world’s poorest are negligible ( [[#Rao--2018|Rao and Min 2018]] ; [[#Scherer--2018|Scherer et al. 2018]] ).

The additional energy demand to meet the basic cooling requirement in the Global South is estimated to be much larger than the electricity needed to provide basic residential energy services universally via clean and affordable energy, as defined by SDG 7 ( [[#IEA--2019|IEA 2019]] ; [[#Mastrucci--2019|Mastrucci et al. 2019]] ) ( ''high confidence'' ) ''.'' If conventional air-conditioning systems are widely deployed to provide cooling, energy use could rise significantly ( [[#van%20Ruijven--2019|van Ruijven et al. 2019]] ; [[#Bezerra--2021|Bezerra et al. 2021]] ; [[#Falchetta--2021|Falchetta and Mistry 2021]] ), thus creating a positive feedback further increasing cooling demand. However, the overall emissions are barely altered by the changing energy demand composition with reductions in heating demand occurring simultaneously ( [[#Isaac--2009|Isaac and van Vuuren 2009]] ; [[#Labriet--2015|Labriet et al. 2015]] ; [[#McFarland--2015|McFarland et al. 2015]] ; [[#Clarke--2018|Clarke et al. 2018]] ). Some mitigation scenarios show price increases of clean cooking fuels, slowing the transition to clean cooking fuels (SDG 7.1) and leaving a billion people in 2050 still reliant on solid fuels in South Asia ( [[#Cameron--2016|Cameron et al. 2016]] ).

In contrast, future energy infrastructure could improve reliability, thus lowering dependence on high-carbon, high-air pollution back-up diesel generators ( [[#Farquharson--2018|Farquharson et al. 2018]] ) that are often used to cope with unreliable power in developing countries ( [[#Maruyama%20Rentschler--2019|Maruyama Rentschler et al. 2019]] ). There can be significant reliability issues where mini-grids are used to electrify rural areas ( [[#Numminen--2019|Numminen and Lund 2019]] ). A stable, sustainable energy transition policy that considers national sustainable development in the short and long term is critical in driving a transition to an energy future that addresses the trilemma of energy security, equity, and sustainability ( [[#La%20Viña--2018|La Viña et al. 2018]] ).

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