Editing IPCC:AR6/SRCCL/Chapter-7 (section)

==== 7.5.2.1 Problem structuring ====

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Structured decision-making occurs when there is scientific knowledge about cause and effect, little uncertainty, and agreement exists on values and norms relating to an issue (Hurlbert and Gupta 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r1031|1031]]</sup> ). This decision space is situated within the ‘known’ space where cause and effect is understood and predictable (although uncertainty is not quite zero) (French 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1032|1032]]</sup> ). Figure 7.5 displays the structured problem area in the bottom left-hand corner corresponding with the ‘known’ decision-making space. Decision-making surrounding quantified risk assessment and risk management (Section 7.4.3.1) occurs within this decision-making space. Examples in the land and climate area include cost-benefit analysis surrounding implementation of irrigation projects (Batie 2008 <sup>[[#fn:r1033|1033]]</sup> ) or adopting soil erosion practices by agricultural producers based on anticipated profit (Hurlbert 2018b <sup>[[#fn:r1034|1034]]</sup> ). Comprehensive risk management also occupies this decision space (Papathoma-Köhle et al. 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r1035|1035]]</sup> ), encompassing risk assessment, reduction, transfer, retention, emergency preparedness and response, and disaster recovery by combining quantified proactive and reactive approaches (Fra.Paleo 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1036|1036]]</sup> ) (Section 7.4.3).

A moderately structured decision space is characterised as one where there is either some disagreement on norms, principles, ends and goals in defining a future state, or there is some uncertainty surrounding land and climate including land use, observations of land-use changes, early warning and decision support systems, model structures, parameterisations, inputs, or from unknown futures informing integrated assessment models and scenarios (see Chapter 1, Section 1.2.2 and Cross-Chapter Box 1 in Chapter 1). Environmental decision-making often takes place in this space where there is limited information and ability to process it, and individual stakeholders make different decisions on the best future course of action ( ''medium confidence'' ) (Waas et al. 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r1037|1037]]</sup> ; Hurlbert and Gupta 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r1038|1038]]</sup> , 2015; Hurlbert 2018b). Figure 7.5 displays the moderately structured problem space characterised by disagreement surrounding norms on the top left-hand side. This corresponds with the complex decision-making space, the realm of social sciences and qualitative knowledge, where cause and effect is difficult to relate with any confidence (French 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1039|1039]]</sup> ).

The moderately structured decision space characterised by uncertainty surrounding land and climate on the bottom right-hand side of Figure 7.5 corresponds to the knowable decision-making space, where the realm of scientific inquiry investigates cause and effects. Here there is sufficient understanding to build models, but not enough understanding to define all parameters (French 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1040|1040]]</sup> ).

The top right-hand corner of Figure 7.5 corresponds to the ‘unstructured’ problem or chaotic space where patterns and relationships are difficult to discern and unknown unknowns reside (French 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1041|1041]]</sup> ). It is in the complex but knowable space, the structured and moderately structured space, that decision-making under uncertainty occurs.

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