Editing IPCC:AR6/WGI/Chapter-12 (section)

==== 12.4.4.3 Wind ====

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'''Mean wind speed:''' Due to the lack of long-term homogeneous records or limited observations in the region, past wind speed trends are difficult to establish. Global climate models project an increase in wind speeds, under all future scenarios, augmenting wind power potential in most parts of Central and South America, especially in NES, where changes lie in the range 0–20% by 2050 under RCP8.5 and 0–40% under RCP8.5 ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Karnauskas--2018a|Karnauskas et al., 2018a]] ; [[#Reboita--2018|Reboita et al., 2018]] ; [[#Jung--2019|Jung and Schindler, 2019]] ). In Patagonia, wind speeds are projected to decrease. For RCP4.5 changes remain marginal and have ''low confidence'' ( ''low agreement'' ) (Figure 12.4m–o).

'''Severe wind storm:''' Similar observational limitations inhibit an assessment of long-term extreme wind trends. However, [[#Pes--2017|Pes et al. (2017)]] found extreme wind increases in most of Brazil over the past decades. Future projections indicate a slight decrease in the number of extratropical cyclones in mid-latitudes ( ''limited evidence'' , ''low confidence'' ) ( [[#Reboita--2018|Reboita et al., 2018]] ), and an increase of extreme winds in tropical areas ( ''limited evidence'' , ''low confidence'' ) ( [[#Kumar--2015|Kumar et al., 2015]] ). Climate models project a shift and an intensification of southern storm tracks, with most effects offshore over the Southern Ocean (Chapter 4), with ''low confidence'' ( ''low agreement'' ) of significant extreme wind changes over land and coastal areas across the 21st century ( [[#Chang--2017|Chang, 2017]] ; [[#Augusto%20Sanabria--2018|Augusto Sanabria and Carril, 2018]] ; [[#Reboita--2021|Reboita et al., 2021]] ).

'''Tropical cyclone:''' CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations, including the new High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP), project a decrease in the frequency of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and Pacific coasts of Central America for the mid-century or under a 2°C GWL, accompanied with an increased frequency of intense cyclones ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[IPCC:Wg1:Chapter:Chapter-11#11.7.1.5|Section 11.7.1.5]] ; [[#Diro--2014|Diro et al., 2014]] ; [[#Knutson--2020|Knutson et al., 2020]] ; [[#Roberts--2020|Roberts et al., 2020]] ).

'''In summary, there is''' limited evidence '''of current trends in observed wind speed and wind storms in Central and South America. Climate projections indicate a decrease in frequency of tropical cyclones in Central America accompanied with an increased frequency of intense cyclones, and an increase in mean wind''' '''speed and wind power potential in most parts of Central and South America''' ( medium confidence ''').'''

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