Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-13 (section)

==== 13.7.1.1 Mortality Due to Heat and Other Extreme Events ====

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Attribution studies show that human-induced climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of heatwaves and has already impacted human health in Europe ( [[#13.10.1|Section 13.10.1]] ; [[#Vicedo-Cabrera--2021|Vicedo-Cabrera et al., 2021]] ); for example, the 2010 heatwave in EEU resulted in 55,000 heat-related deaths ( [[#Barriopedro--2011|Barriopedro et al., 2011]] ; [[#Russo--2015|Russo et al., 2015]] ); also, the 2018 heatwave in NEU ( [[#Ebi--2021|Ebi et al., 2021]] ) and the 2019 heatwave in WCE and NEU both had significant health impacts (Cross-Chapter Box DISASTER in Chapter 4; [[#Vautard--2020|Vautard et al., 2020]] ; [[#Watts--2021|Watts et al., 2021]] ). Elderly, children, (pregnant) women, socially isolated people and those with low physical fitness are particularly exposed and vulnerable to heat-related risks, as are those people suffering from pre-existing medical conditions, including cardiovascular disease, kidney disorders, diabetes and respiratory diseases ( [[#de’Donato--2015|de’Donato et al., 2015]] ; [[#Sheridan--2018|Sheridan and Allen, 2018]] ; [[#Szopa--2021|Szopa et al., 2021]] ). An ageing population in Europe is increasing the pool of vulnerable individuals, resulting in higher risk of heat-related mortality ( [[#Montero--2012|Montero et al., 2012]] ; [[#Carmona--2016b|Carmona et al., 2016b]] ; [[#WHO--2018b|WHO, 2018b]] ; [[#Watts--2021|Watts et al., 2021]] ).

A GWL of 1.5°C could result in 30,000 annual deaths due to extreme heat, with up to threefold the number under 3°C GWL ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Roldán--2015|Roldán et al., 2015]] ; [[#Forzieri--2017|Forzieri et al., 2017]] ; [[#Kendrovski--2017|Kendrovski et al., 2017]] ; [[#Naumann--2020|Naumann et al., 2020]] ). The risk of heat stress, including mortality and discomfort, is dependent on socioeconomic development (Figure 13.22; [[#Rohat--2019|Rohat et al., 2019]] ; [[#Ebi--2021|Ebi et al., 2021]] ). Heat stress risks will be lower under SSP1 than the SSP3 or SSP4 scenarios ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Hunt--2017|Hunt et al., 2017]] ; [[#Rohat--2019|Rohat et al., 2019]] ; [[#Wang--2020|Wang et al., 2020]] ; [[#Ebi--2021|Ebi et al., 2021]] ). The incidence of heat-related mortality and morbidity will be highest in SEU, where their magnitude is also expected to increase more rapidly ( [[#Forzieri--2017|Forzieri et al., 2017]] ; [[#Gasparrini--2017|Gasparrini et al., 2017]] ; [[#Guo--2018|Guo et al., 2018]] ; [[#Díaz--2019|Díaz et al., 2019]] ; [[#Vicedo-Cabrera--2021|Vicedo-Cabrera et al., 2021]] ). WCE, NEU and SEU will experience accelerating negative consequences beyond 1.5°C GWL, particularly under SSP3 and SSP4 due to higher vulnerability compared with SSP1 (Figure 13.22; [[#Rohat--2019|Rohat et al., 2019]] ). The number of heat-related respiratory hospital admissions is projected to increase from 11,000 (1981–2010) to 26,000 annually (2021–2050), particularly in SEU mainly due to a relative increase in the number of extremely hot days ( [[#Åström--2013|Åström et al., 2013]] ). Cold spells are projected to decrease across Europe, particularly in Southern Europe, but do not compensate for the additional heat-related deaths projected ( [[#Lhotka--2015|Lhotka and Kysely, 2015]] ; [[#Carmona--2016a|Carmona et al., 2016a]] ; [[#Martinez--2018|Martinez et al., 2018]] ).

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[[File:9fa5f00368abe4c2f8af9125c7f7ea6d IPCC_AR6_WGII_Figure_13_022.png]]

'''Figure 13.22 |''' '''Scenario matrix for multi-model median heat stress risks for the baseline 1986–2005, and different SSP–RCP combinations for the period 2040–2060.''' The SSPs are extended for Europe (EU28+). Heat stress risk is calculated by geometrical aggregation of the hazard (heatwave days), population vulnerability and exposure. Risk values are normalised using a z-score rescaling with a factor-10 shift. Details of the methodology are provided by [[#Rohat--2019|Rohat et al. (2019)]] .

Among Europeans, 74% live in urban areas ( [[#13.6|Section 13.6]] ), where the effect of heatwaves on human health is exacerbated by microclimates due to buildings and infrastructure, UHI effects and air pollution ( [[#WHO--2018a|WHO, 2018a]] ; [[#Smid--2019|Smid et al., 2019]] ). In large European cities, stabilising climate warming at 1.5°C GWL would decrease premature deaths by 15–22% in summer compared with stabilisation at 2°C GWL ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Mitchell--2018|Mitchell et al., 2018]] ).

Although there is ''very high confidence'' that risk consequences will inevitably be more pervasive and widespread in a warmer Europe, evidence of higher heat tolerance is also emerging across most European regions ( [[#Todd--2015|Todd and Valleron, 2015]] ; Åström et al., 2016; [[#Follos--2020|Follos et al., 2020]] ). Future projections of mortality rates in Europe under the assumption of complete acclimatisation suggest constant or even decreasing rates of mortality in spite of global warming ( [[#Åström--2017|Åström et al., 2017]] ; [[#Guo--2018|Guo et al., 2018]] ; [[#Díaz--2019|Díaz et al., 2019]] ); however, there are large uncertainties in the ability to adapt to future heat extremes which might fall outside of historical ranges ( [[#Vanos--2020|Vanos et al., 2020]] ).

Other extreme events already result in major health risks across Europe. Between 2000 and 2014, for example, floods in Russia killed approximately 420 people, mainly older women ( [[#Belyakova--2018|Belyakova et al., 2018]] ). Fatalities associated with coastal and riverine flooding ( [[#13.2.2|Section 13.2.2]] ), wildfires ( [[#13.3|Section 13.3.4]] ) and windstorms could rise substantially by 2100 ( [[#Forzieri--2017|Forzieri et al., 2017]] ; [[#Feyen--2020|Feyen et al., 2020]] ). Lifetime exposure to extreme weather events for children born in 2020 will be about 50% greater at 3.5°C compared with 1.5°C GWL ( [[#Thiery--2021|Thiery et al., 2021]] ).

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