Editing IPCC:AR6/SR15/Chapter-1 (section)

=== 1.1.3 Sustainable Development and a 1.5°C Warmer World ===

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AR5 (IPCC, 2014c) <sup>[[#fn:r46|46]]</sup> noted with ''high confidence'' that ‘equity is an integral dimension of sustainable development’ and that ‘mitigation and adaptation measures can strongly affect broader sustainable development and equity objectives’ (Fleurbaey et al., 2014) <sup>[[#fn:r47|47]]</sup> . Limiting global warming to 1.5°C would require substantial societal and technological transformations, dependent in turn on global and regional sustainable development pathways. A range of pathways, both sustainable and not, are explored in this report, including implementation strategies to understand the enabling conditions and challenges required for such a transformation. These pathways and connected strategies are framed within the context of sustainable development, and in particular the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (UN, 2015b) <sup>[[#fn:r48|48]]</sup> and Cross-Chapter Box 4 on SDGs (in this chapter). The feasibility of staying within 1.5°C depends upon a range of enabling conditions with geophysical, environmental–ecological, technological, economic, socio-cultural, and institutional dimensions. Limiting warming to 1.5°C also involves identifying technology and policy levers to accelerate the pace of transformation (see Chapter 4). Some pathways are more consistent than others with the requirements for sustainable development (see Chapter 5). Overall, the three-pronged emphasis on sustainable development, resilience, and transformation provides Chapter 5 an opportunity to assess the conditions of simultaneously reducing societal vulnerabilities, addressing entrenched inequalities, and breaking the circle of poverty.

The feasibility of any global commitment to a 1.5°C pathway depends, in part, on the cumulative influence of the nationally determined contributions (NDCs), committing nation states to specific GHG emission reductions. The current NDCs, extending only to 2030, do not limit warming to 1.5°C. Depending on mitigation decisions after 2030, they cumulatively track toward a warming of 3°-4°C above pre-industrial temperatures by 2100, with the potential for further warming thereafter (Rogelj et al., 2016a; UNFCCC, 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r49|49]]</sup> . The analysis of pathways in this report reveals opportunities for greater decoupling of economic growth from GHG emissions. Progress towards limiting warming to 1.5°C requires a significant acceleration of this trend. AR5 concluded that climate change constrains possible development paths, that synergies and trade-offs exist between climate responses and socio-economic contexts, and that opportunities for effective climate responses overlap with opportunities for sustainable development, noting that many existing societal patterns of consumption are intrinsically unsustainable (Fleurbaey et al., 2014) <sup>[[#fn:r50|50]]</sup> .

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