Editing IPCC:AR6/SR15/TS (section)

=== Properties of Energy and Land Transitions in 1.5°C Pathways ===

'''The share of primary energy from renewables increases while coal usage decreases across pathways limiting warming to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot (''high confidence'').''' By 2050, renewables (including bioenergy, hydro, wind, and solar, with direct-equivalence method) supply a share of 52–67% (interquartile range) of primary energy in 1.5°C pathways with no or limited overshoot; while the share from coal decreases to 1–7% (interquartile range), with a large fraction of this coal use combined with carbon capture and storage (CCS). From 2020 to 2050 the primary energy supplied by oil declines in most pathways (−39 to −77% interquartile range). Natural gas changes by −13% to −62% (interquartile range), but some pathways show a marked increase albeit with widespread deployment of CCS. The overall deployment of CCS varies widely across 1.5°C pathways with no or limited overshoot, with cumulative CO<sub>2</sub> stored through 2050 ranging from zero up to 300 GtCO<sub>2</sub> (minimum–maximum range), of which zero up to 140 GtCO<sub>2</sub> is stored from biomass. Primary energy supplied by bioenergy ranges from 40–310 EJ yr<sup>−1</sup> in 2050 (minimum-maximum range), and nuclear from 3–66 EJ yr<sup>−1</sup> (minimum–maximum range). These ranges reflect both uncertainties in technological development and strategic mitigation portfolio choices. {2.4.2}

1'''.5°C pathways with no or limited overshoot include a rapid decline in the carbon intensity of electricity and an increase in electrification of energy end use (high confidence).''' By 2050, the carbon intensity of electricity decreases to −92 to +11 gCO<sub>2</sub>MJ<sup>−1</sup> (minimum–maximum range) from about 140 gCO<sub>2</sub>MJ<sup>−1</sup> in 2020, and electricity covers 34–71% (minimum–maximum range) of final energy across 1.5°C pathways with no or limited overshoot from about 20% in 2020. By 2050, the share of electricity supplied by renewables increases to 59–97% (minimum-maximum range) across 1.5°C pathways with no or limited overshoot. Pathways with higher chances of holding warming to below 1.5°C generally show a faster decline in the carbon intensity of electricity by 2030 than pathways that temporarily overshoot 1.5°C. {2.4.1, 2.4.2, 2.4.3}

'''Transitions in global and regional land use are found in all pathways limiting global warming to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot, but their scale depends on the pursued mitigation portfolio (''high confidence'').''' Pathways that limit global warming to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot project a 4 million km2reduction to a 2.5 million km2 increase of non-pasture agricultural land for food and feed crops and a 0.5–11 million km2reduction of pasture land, to be converted into 0-6 million km2of agricultural land for energy crops and a 2 million km2reduction to 9.5 million km2increase in forests by 2050 relative to 2010 (''medium confidence''). Land-use transitions of similar magnitude can be observed in modelled 2°C pathways (''medium confidence''). Such large transitions pose profound challenges for sustainable management of the various demands on land for human settlements, food, livestock feed, fibre, bioenergy, carbon storage, biodiversity and other ecosystem services (''high confidence''). {2.3.4, 2.4.4}