Editing IPCC:AR6/SROCC/Cross-Chapter-Box-9 (section)

== C Conclusions ==

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LLIC are particularly at risk from climate-related changes to the ocean and the cryosphere, whether they are urban or rural, continental or island, at any latitude and regardless of level of development ( ''high confidence'' ). Over the course of the 21st century, they are expected to experience both increasing risks ( ''high confidence'' ) and limits to ecological and societal adaptation (de Coninck et al., 2018; Djalante et al., 2018; Section 4.3.4.2, Figure 6.2, Figure CB9.2; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018), which has the potential to significantly increase the level of loss and damage experienced by local coastal livelihoods (e.g., fishing, logistics or tourism) (Djalante et al., 2018). However, there are still important research gaps on residual risks and adaptation limits, given that these limits can be reached due to the intensity of the hazards and/or to the high vulnerability of a given system, and can be ecological, technological, economic, social, cultural, political or institutional. In addition, ocean and cryosphere changes have the potential to accumulate in compound events and cause cascades of impacts through economic, environmental and social processes ( ''medium evidence, high agreement'' ) (Sections 6.8.2 to 6.8.3, Box 6.1). This is the case when coastal flooding and riverine inundation occur together, for example, during the 2012 Superstorm Sandy in New York City, USA (Rosenzweig and Solecki, 2014); the 2014 cyclone Bejisa in Reunion Island, France (Duvat et al., 2016), and the 2017 Hurricane Harvey in Houston, USA (Emanuel, 2017). Cascade effects far beyond the extent of the original impacts bring the risk in LLIC of slowing down and reversing overall development achievements, particularly on poverty reduction ( ''low evidence'' , ''medium agreement'' ) (Hallegatte et al., 2016). Global time series analysis of risk and vulnerability trends show that many Pacific island states have fallen behind the global average in terms of progress made in the reduction of social vulnerability towards natural hazards over the past years (Feldmeyer et al., 2017). These findings may well be indicative of the situation for other LLIC ( ''medium confidence'' ) (Hay et al., 2019).

In addition, LLIC provide relevant illustrations of some of the IPCC Reasons for Concern (RFC) that describe potentially dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system (IPCC, 2014; IPCC, 2018). LLIC especially illustrate the risks to unique and threatened systems (RFC1), and risks associated with extreme weather and compound events (RFC2), and the uneven distribution of impacts (RFC3). Using this frame, O’Neill et al. (2017) estimate, for example, that the potential for coastal protection and ecosystem-based adaptation will reach significant limits by 2100 in the case of a 1 m rise in sea level, suggesting the need for research into the crossing of environmental and/or anthropogenic tipping points (Sections 6.2). The SROCC report confirms that high risk to various geographies (Arctic communities remote from regions of rapid positive glacial-isostatic adjustment, megacities, urban atoll islands and large tropical agricultural deltas) are to be expected before a 1 m rise in global mean sea level (Section 4.3.4.2.1). More broadly, this report suggests, first, that the drivers and timing of the future habitability of LLIC will vary from one case to another (Manley et al., 2016; Hay et al., 2018). Second, future storylines of risks will also critically depend on the multi-decadal effectiveness of coastal nations’ and communities’ responses ( ''medium evidence'' , ''high agreement'' ). This will, in turn, partly depend on transformation of risk management regimes in order to harness these potentials and shift course towards climate-resilient development pathways ( ''low evidence, high agreement'' ) (Solecki et al., 2017).

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'''Figure CB9.2'''

<span id="figure-cb9.2-the-storyline-of-risk-for-low-lying-islands-and-coasts-llic.-from-left-to-right-this-figure-shows-that-ocean--and-cryosphere-related-changes-ocean-acidification-ocean-warming-sea-level-rise-etc.-will-combine-with-anthropogenic-drivers-population-growth-settlement-trends-socioeconomic-inequalities-etc.-to-explain-impacts-on-various-llic-geographies-cities-islands-deltas"></span>
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'''Figure CB9.2 | The storyline of risk for Low-Lying Islands and Coasts (LLIC). From left to right, this figure shows that ocean- and cryosphere-related changes (ocean acidification, ocean warming, sea level rise, etc.) will combine with anthropogenic drivers (population growth, settlement trends, socioeconomic inequalities, etc.) to explain impacts on various LLIC geographies (cities, islands, deltas, […]'''
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[[File:30c7579b6a8b249d5a766d92f00093d8 IPCC-SROCC-CCB_9_2.jpg]]

Figure CB9.2 | The storyline of risk for Low-Lying Islands and Coasts (LLIC). From left to right, this figure shows that ocean- and cryosphere-related changes (ocean acidification, ocean warming, sea level rise, etc.) will combine with anthropogenic drivers (population growth, settlement trends, socioeconomic inequalities, etc.) to explain impacts on various LLIC geographies (cities, islands, deltas, Arctic coasts). Depending on the combinations of responses (black dots; stylised representation of potential responses) along a continuum going from hard engineering to ecosystem-based approaches, and from securing current settings to relocation (light blue triangles), risks will increase or decrease in the coming decades. Some responses (black dots) will enhance either adaptation or maladaptation. SIDS is Small Island Developing States.

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