Editing IPCC:AR6/SYR/SPM (section)

=== Current Mitigation Progress, Gaps and Challenges ===

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'''A.4 Policies and laws addressing mitigation have consistently expanded since AR5. Global GHG emissions in 2030 implied by nationally determined contributions (NDCs) announced by October 2021 make it '''''likely''''' that warming will exceed 1.5°C during the 21st century and make it harder to limit warming below 2°C. There are gaps between projected emissions from implemented policies and those from NDCs and finance flows fall short of the levels needed to meet climate goals across all sectors and regions. '''''(high confidence)''''' Links to longer report 2.2, 2.3, Figure 2.5, Table 2.2'''
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A.4.1 The UNFCCC, Kyoto Protocol, and the Paris Agreement are supporting rising levels of national ambition. The Paris Agreement, adopted under the UNFCCC, with near universal participation, has led to policy development and target-setting at national and sub-national levels, in particular in relation to mitigation, as well as enhanced transparency of climate action and support ''(medium confidence)'' . Many regulatory and economic instruments have already been deployed successfully ''(high confidence)'' . In many countries, policies have enhanced energy efficiency, reduced rates of deforestation and accelerated technology deployment, leading to avoided and in some cases reduced or removed emissions ''(high confidence)'' . Multiple lines of evidence suggest that mitigation policies have led to several Gt CO 2 -eq yr -1 [[#footnote-033|24]] of avoided global emissions ''(medium confidence)'' . At least 18 countries have sustained absolute production-based GHG and consumption-based CO 2 reductions [[#footnote-032|25]] for longer than 10 years. These reductions have only partly offset global emissions growth ''(high confidence)'' ''. Links to longer report 2.2.1, 2.2.2''

A.4.2 Several mitigation options, notably solar energy, wind energy, electrification of urban systems, urban green infrastructure, energy efficiency, demand-side management, improved forest- and crop/grassland management, and reduced food waste and loss, are technically viable, are becoming increasingly cost effective and are generally supported by the public. From 2010-2019 there have been sustained decreases in the unit costs of solar energy (85%), wind energy (55%), and lithium-ion batteries (85%), and large increases in their deployment, e.g., &gt;10x for solar and &gt;100x for electric vehicles (EVs), varying widely across regions. The mix of policy instruments that reduced costs and stimulated adoption includes public R&amp;D, funding for demonstration and pilot projects, and demand-pull instruments such as deployment subsidies to attain scale. Maintaining emission-intensive systems may, in some regions and sectors, be more expensive than transitioning to low emission systems. ''(high confidence)'' Links to longer report 2.2.2, Figure 2.4

A.4.3 A substantial ‘emissions gap’ exists between global GHG emissions in 2030 associated with the implementation of NDCs announced prior to COP26 [[#footnote-031|26]] and those associated with modelled mitigation pathways that limit warming to 1.5°C (&gt;50%) with no or limited overshoot or limit warming to 2°C (&gt;67%) assuming immediate action ''(high confidence)'' . This would make it ''likely'' that warming will exceed 1.5°C during the 21st century ''(high confidence)'' . Global modelled mitigation pathways that limit warming to 1.5°C (&gt;50%) with no or limited overshoot or limit warming to 2°C (&gt;67%) assuming immediate action imply deep global GHG emissions reductions this decade ''(high confidence)'' (see SPM Box 1, Table 1, B.6) [[#footnote-030|27]] . Modelled pathways that are consistent with NDCs announced prior to COP26 until 2030 and assume no increase in ambition thereafter have higher emissions, leading to a median global warming of 2.8 [2.1 to 3.4] °C by 2100 ''(medium confidence).'' Many countries have signalled an intention to achieve net zero GHG or net zero CO 2 by around mid-century but pledges differ across countries in terms of scope and specificity, and limited policies are to date in place to deliver on them. Links to longer report 2.3.1, Table 2.2, Figure 2.5, Table 3.1, 4.1

A.4.4 Policy coverage is uneven across sectors ''(high confidence)'' . Policies implemented by the end of 2020 are projected to result in higher global GHG emissions in 2030 than emissions implied by NDCs, indicating an ‘implementation gap’ ''(high confidence)'' . Without a strengthening of policies, global warming of 3.2 [2.2 to 3.5] °C is projected by 2100 ''(medium confidence). [[#box-spm-1|Box SPM.1]] [[#figure-spm-5|Figure SPM.5]] Links to longer report 2.2.2, 2.3.1, 3.1.1, Figure 2.5''

A.4.5 The adoption of low-emission technologies lags in most developing countries, particularly least developed ones, due in part to limited finance, technology development and transfer, and capacity ''(medium confidence)'' . The magnitude of climate finance flows has increased over the last decade and financing channels have broadened but growth has slowed since 2018 ''(high confidence)'' . Financial flows have developed heterogeneously across regions and sectors ''(high confidence)'' . Public and private finance flows for fossil fuels are still greater than those for climate adaptation and mitigation ''(high confidence)'' . The overwhelming majority of tracked climate finance is directed towards mitigation, but nevertheless falls short of the levels needed to limit warming to below 2°C or to 1.5°C across all sectors and regions (see C7.2) ''(very high confidence)'' . In 2018, public and publicly mobilised private climate finance flows from developed to developing countries were below the collective goal under the UNFCCC and Paris Agreement to mobilise USD 100 billion per year by 2020 in the context of meaningful mitigation action and transparency on implementation ''(medium confidence). Links to longer report 2.2.2, 2.3.1, 2.3.3''

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