Editing IPCC:AR6/WGI/Chapter-11 (section)

=== Droughts ===

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'''Different drought types exist, and they are associated with different impacts and respond differently to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations.''' Precipitation deficits and changes in evapotranspiration govern net water availability. A lack of sufficient soil moisture, sometimes amplified by increased atmospheric evaporative demand, results in agricultural and ecological drought. Lack of runoff and surface water result in hydrological drought. {11.6}

'''Human-induced climate change has contributed to increases in a''' '''gricultural and''' '''ecological droughts in some regions due to evapotranspiration increases''' ( ''medium confidence'' ''').''' Increases in evapotranspiration have been driven by increases in atmospheric evaporative demand induced by increased temperature, decreased relative humidity and increased net radiation ( ''high confidence'' ). Trends in precipitation are not a main driver in affecting global-scale trends in drought ( ''medium confidence'' ), but have induced increases in meteorological droughts in a few AR6 regions (NES: ''high confidence'' ; WAF, CAF, ESAF, SAM, SWS, SSA, SAS: ''medium confidence'' ). Increasing trends in agricultural and ecological droughts have been observed on all continents (WAF, CAF, WSAF, ESAF, WCA, ECA, EAS, SAU, MED, WCE, WNA, NES: ''medium confidence'' ), but decreases only in one AR6 region (NAU: ''medium confidence'' ). Increasing trends in hydrological droughts have been observed in a few AR6 regions (MED: ''high confidence'' ; WAF, EAS, SAU: ''medium confidence'' ). Regional-scale attribution shows that human-induced climate change has contributed to increased agricultural and ecological droughts (MED, WNA), and increased hydrological drought (MED) in some regions ( ''medium confidence'' ). {11.6, 11.9}

'''More regions are affected by increases in agricultural and ecological droughts with increasing global warming''' ( ''high confidence'' ''').''' Several regions will be affected by more severe agricultural and ecological droughts even if global warming is stabilised at 2°C, including MED, WSAF, SAM and SSA ( ''high confidence'' ), and ESAF, MDG, EAU, SAU, SCA, CAR, NSA, NES, SWS, WCE, NCA, WNA and CNA ( ''medium confidence'' ). Some regions are also projected to be affected by more severe agricultural and ecological droughts at 1.5°C (MED, WSAF, ESAF, SAU, NSA, SAM, SSA, CNA, ''medium confidence'' ). At 4°C of global warming, about 50% of all inhabited AR6 regions would be affected by increases in agricultural and ecological droughts (WCE, MED, CAU, EAU, SAU, WCA, EAS, SCA, CAR, NSA, NES, SAM, SWS, SSA, NCA, CNA, ENA, WNA, WSAF, ESAF, MDG: ''medium confidence'' or higher), and only two regions (NEAF, SAS) would experience decreases in agricultural and ecological drought ( ''medium confidence'' ). There is ''high confidence'' that the projected increases in agricultural and ecological droughts are strongly affected by evapotranspiration increases associated with enhanced atmospheric evaporative demand. Several regions are projected to be more strongly affected by hydrological droughts with increasing global warming (at 4°C of global warming: NEU, WCE, EEU, MED, SAU, WCA, SCA, NSA, SAM, SWS, SSA, WNA, WSAF, ESAF, MDG: ''medium confidence'' or higher). There is ''low confidence'' that effects of enhanced atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO <sub>2</sub> ) concentrations on plant water-use efficiency alleviate extreme agricultural and ecological droughts in conditions characterized by limited soil moisture and enhanced atmospheric evaporative demand. There is also ''low confidence'' that these effects will substantially reduce global plant transpiration and the severity of hydrological droughts. There is ''high confidence'' that the land carbon sink will become less efficient due to soil moisture limitations and associated drought conditions in some regions in higher-emissions scenarios, in particular under global warming levels above 4°C. {11.6, 11.9, Cross-Chapter Box 5.1}

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