Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-8 (section)

==== 8.2.1.2 Links Between Climate-related Hazards, Observed Losses, Poverty and Inequality Globally ====

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There is ''high confidence'' that climate-related hazards, including both slow-onset shifts and extreme events, directly affect the poor through adverse impacts on livelihoods (see Figure 8.2), including reductions and losses of agricultural yields, impacts on human health and food security, destruction of homes, and loss of income ( [[#Hallegatte--2015|Hallegatte et al., 2015]] ; [[#Connolly-Boutin--2016|Connolly-Boutin and Smit, 2016]] ). One of the key factors that drives disproportionate impacts among poor households globally is lost agricultural income ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Hallegatte--2015|Hallegatte et al., 2015]] ; [[#Islam--2017|Islam and Winkel, 2017]] ). Also of concern are the impacts of climate hazards to human health, which is a primary resource that the poor rely on (Figure 8.2). There are only few robust global estimates of observed income losses to the poor that comprehensively account for all climate hazards; nevertheless, ( [[#Hallegatte--2017|Hallegatte and Rozenberg, 2017]] ), estimating average impacts of climate change on incomes of the poor, found that across 92 developing countries, the poorest 40% of the population experienced losses that were 70% greater than the losses of people with average wealth.

Overall, our assessment shows (see Figure 8.2) ''high confidence'' that two categories of climate hazards pose high risk to a broad range of livelihood resources that the poor rely on: warming trends and droughts (Figure 8.2b). Two key livelihood resource categories—life, bodily health and food security, and crop yield (representing agricultural productivity) are most at risk to a broad range of climate hazards ( ''high confidence,'' Figure 8.2b). In addition to warming and drought, both pluvial and fluvial flooding, severe storms and sea level rise represent a high-risk cluster for livelihood impacts ( ''high confidence,'' Figure 8.2b).

Figure 8.2 reflects the fundamental threat that climate hazards pose to the survival of plants, livestock and fish, as well as the people on which livelihoods depend ( ''high confidence'' ) (see [[#Horton--2021|Horton et al., 2021]] ). The dependence of livelihoods on biological, ecological and human survival depicted in Figure 8.2 is also treated in Chapter 5. Likewise, impacts to livelihood resources can be compared to impacts to other key assets (see Working Group I (WGI) [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-12#12.3|Section 12.3]] ; WGI Table 12.2, [[#Ranasinghe--2021|Ranasinghe et al., 2021]] ).

It is revealed that warming trends and droughts pose greatest risks to the widest array of livelihood resources, and are particularly detrimental to crops and human health, a long-term requirement for livelihoods and well-being ( ''high confidence'' ) (see Figure 8.2B; [[#8.4.5.3|Section 8.4.5.3]] ; [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-16#16.5.2.3|Section 16.5.2.3.4]] ; [[#Campbell--2018|Campbell et al., 2018]] ). A wide range of hazards also threaten the survival of fish and livestock that livelihoods depend on ( ''high confidence,'' Figure 8.2b), as well as other sources of income for the poor. Salinity is a secondary hazard related to droughts, coastal flooding and sea level rise, and poses a fundamental risk to agriculture ( ''high confidence'' ). There is also ''robust evidence'' for rainfall variability driving short-term impacts to agricultural productivity as well as permanent loss of agriculture ( ''high confidence'' ).

While severe storms, pluvial and riverine floods, and coastal floods primarily impact private livelihood resources, such as homes and income ( ''high confidence,'' Figure 8.2b), warming and droughts also affect common pool resources, such as rangeland, fisheries and forests ( ''high confidence,'' Figure 8.2b). Multiple hazards undermine ecosystems that Indigenous Peoples and poor communities depend on for food security and income and have sustainably managed over the long term, such as forests, grazing land and marine fisheries ( [[#Barange--2014|Barange et al., 2014]] ; [[#Leichenko--2014|Leichenko and Silva, 2014]] ; [[#Béné--2016|Béné et al., 2016]] ; [[#Jantarasami--2018|Jantarasami et al., 2018]] ).

''High confidence'' for observed livelihood impacts is spatially concentrated in South Asia, Africa, North America, and to a lesser extent Small Island Developing States (SIDS) (Figure 8.2c). The hazards most prevalent in all regions include warming trends, droughts and sea level rise (Figure 8.2c), and undermine crop productivity, crop varieties, and cropland in most regions ( ''high confidence'' ). Along coastlines, climate hazards threaten livelihoods particularly exposed to extreme weather, flooding and sea level rise, and where poor populations are heavily dependent on agriculture and fisheries ( ''high confidence'' ). One third of total sampled evidence on livelihood impacts was observed in just three countries—Bangladesh, India and Nepal—indicating accumulating experience with livelihood impacts in South Asia (Figure 8.2c). However, this spatial representation of confidence does not mean that observed livelihood impacts are not occurring in other regions as well. Relative to South Asia, in Central Asia and the Caribbean, for example, the weight of evidence of livelihood impacts though lighter is still ''robust'' . Among industrialised nations, there is ''high confidence'' that climate change has impacted livelihood resources in the USA.

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