Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Cross-Chapter-Paper-4 (section)

=== CCP4.1.4 Detection and Attribution of Climate Change Impacts ===

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New evidence published since Working Group II Assessment Report 5 (WGII AR5) confirms that climate change is increasingly affecting many systems and sectors in the Mediterranean region ( ''high confidence'' ) (Figure CCP4.5; Chapters 9, 13 and 16). There is ''high confidence'' that climate change has worsened heat waves and droughts (CCP4.1.3; [[#Lionello--2014|Lionello et al., 2014]] ; [[#Caloiero--2018|Caloiero et al., 2018]] ; [[#Mathbout--2018|Mathbout et al., 2018]] ; [[#Spinoni--2019|Spinoni et al., 2019]] ), and ''medium to high confidence'' that heat waves are impacting marine ( [[#Rivetti--2014|Rivetti et al., 2014]] ; [[#Tsikliras--2014|Tsikliras and Stergiou, 2014]] ; [[#Stergiou--2016|Stergiou et al., 2016]] ; [[#Corrales--2017|Corrales et al., 2017]] ), freshwater and terrestrial ecosystems ( [[#Peñuelas--2018|Peñuelas et al., 2018]] ; [[#Bartsch--2020|Bartsch et al., 2020]] ; [[#Carosi--2021|Carosi et al., 2021]] ), as well as agriculture ( [[#El-Maayar--2013|El-Maayar and Lange, 2013]] ; [[#Ortas--2013|Ortas and Lal, 2013]] ; [[#Ponti--2014|Ponti et al., 2014]] ; [[#Garcia-Mozo--2015|Garcia-Mozo et al., 2015]] ; [[#Moore--2015|Moore and Lobell, 2015]] ; [[#Oteros--2015|Oteros et al., 2015]] ; [[#Di%20Lena--2018|Di Lena et al., 2018]] ) and fisheries ( [[#Fortibuoni--2015|Fortibuoni et al., 2015]] ; [[#Givan--2018|Givan et al., 2018]] ; [[#IPBES--2018a|IPBES, 2018a]] ). Heat waves have also increased thermal discomfort, especially in urban areas (WGI AR6 Chapter 10, Doblas-Reyes et al., 2021; WGI AR6 Chapter 12, Ranasinghe et al., 2021; [[#Zinzi--2017|Zinzi and Carnielo, 2017]] ). Despite increasing wildfire hazard, forest fires are generally decreasing in the European part of the basin, due to more efficient risk management ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Turco--2016|Turco et al., 2016]] ; 2017). Mixed trends of increasing and decreasing flash and river floods across the Mediterranean are reported, but there is ''low confidence'' in their attribution to climate change ( [[#Mediero--2014|Mediero et al., 2014]] ; [[#Baahmed--2015|Baahmed et al., 2015]] ; [[#Gaume--2016|Gaume et al., 2016]] ; [[#Paprotny--2018|Paprotny et al., 2018]] ; [[#Blöschl--2019|Blöschl et al., 2019]] ; [[#Vicente-Serrano--2019|Vicente-Serrano et al., 2019]] ).

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[[File:73e84aca7756dbb4a61557754e865dfa IPCC_AR6_WGII_Figure_CCP4_005.png]]

'''Figure CCP4.5 |''' '''Attribution of observed impacts of climate change in the Mediterranean region (see SMCCP4.''' '''1 for supporting references).'''

Flooding, erosion and salinisation are significant observed impacts in coastal regions, especially where subsidence is significant, such as in the region of Thessaloniki in Greece or the eastern Nile Delta in Egypt ( [[#Raucoules--2008|Raucoules et al., 2008]] ; [[#Frihy--2010|Frihy et al., 2010]] ), with only ''low confidence'' in attribution to climate change so far (Section SMCCP4.1). Coastal urbanisation and engineering protection are expanding in the Mediterranean, resulting in substantial impacts on coastal biodiversity ( [[#Masria--2015|Masria et al., 2015]] ; [[#Carranza--2020|Carranza et al., 2020]] ).

The attribution of impacts displays little variability across sub-regions, but confidence in attribution to climate change is higher in the north, due to the larger number of observations and studies in Europe. While land use and fisheries are still major non-climatic drivers of changing hazards and biodiversity losses ( [[#Aguilera--2015|Aguilera et al., 2015]] ; [[#Turco--2016|Turco et al., 2016]] ; [[#IPBES--2018a|IPBES, 2018a]] ; 2018b; [[#Tramblay--2019|Tramblay et al., 2019]] ; [[#Vicente-Serrano--2019|Vicente-Serrano et al., 2019]] ), impacts of climate change are now being observed in all parts of the Mediterranean region ( ''high confidence'' ).

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