Editing IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-10 (section)

=== 10.1.4 Transport Disruption and Transformation ===

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Available evidence suggests that transport-related CO 2 emissions would need to be restricted to about 2 to 3 Gt in 2050 (1.5°C scenario-1.5DS, B2DS), or about 70 to 80% below 2015 levels, to meet the goals set in the Paris Agreement. It also indicates that a balanced and inter-modal application of Avoid, Shift, and Improve measures is capable of yielding an estimated reduction in transport emissions of 2.39 GtCO 2 -equivalent by 2030 and 5.74 GtCO 2 -equivalent by 2050 ( [[#IPCC--2018|IPCC 2018]] ; [[#Gota--2019|Gota et al. 2019]] ). Such a transformative decarbonisation of the global transport system requires, in addition to technological changes, a paradigm shift that ensures prioritisation of high-accessibility transport solutions that minimise the amount of mobility required to meet people’s needs, and favours transit and active transport modes ( [[#Lee--2018|Lee and Handy 2018]] ; [[#SLoCaT--2021|SLoCaT 2021]] ). These changes are sometimes called disruptive as they are frequently surprising in how they accelerate through a technological system.

The assessment of transport innovations and their mitigation potentials is at the core of how this chapter examines the possibilities for changing transport-related GHG trajectories. The transport technology innovation literature analysed in this chapter emphasises how a mixture of mitigation technology options and social changes are now converging and how, in combination, they may have potential to accelerate trends toward a low-carbon transport transition. Such changes are considered disruptive or transformative ( [[#Sprei--2018|Sprei 2018]] ). Of the current transport trends covered in the literature, this chapter focuses on three key technology and policy areas: electro-mobility in land-based transport vehicles, new fuels for ships and planes, and overall demand reductions and efficiency. These strategies are seen as being necessary to integrate at all levels of governance and, in combination with the creation of fast, extensive, and affordable multimodal public transport networks, can help achieve multiple advantages in accordance with SDGs

Electrification of passenger transport in light-duty vehicles (LDVs) is well underway as a commercial process with socio-technical transformative potential and will be examined in detail in Sections 10.3 and 10.4. But the rapid mainstreaming of electric vehicles (EVs) will still need enabling conditions for land transport to achieve the shift away from petroleum fuels, as outlined in [[IPCC:Wg3:Chapter:Chapter-3|Chapter 3]] and detailed in [[#10.8|Section 10.8]] . The other mitigation options reviewed in this chapter are so far only incremental and are less commercial, especially shipping and aviation fuels, so stronger enabling conditions are likely , as detailed further in Sections 10.5 to 10.8. The enabling conditions that would be needed for the development of an emerging technological solution for such fuels are likely to be very different from those for electromobility, but nevertheless they both will need demand and efficiency changes to ensure they are equitable and inclusive.

[[#10.2|Section 10.2]] sets out the transformation of transport through examining systemic changes that affect demand for transport services and the efficiency of the system. [[#10.3|Section 10.3]] looks at the most promising technological innovations in vehicles and fuels. The next three sections (10.4, 10.5, and 10.6) examine mitigation options for land transport, aviation, and shipping. [[#10.7|Section 10.7]] describes the space of solutions assessed in a range of integrated modelling and sectoral transport scenarios. Finally, [[#10.8|Section 10.8]] sets out what would be needed for the most transformative scenario that can manage to achieve the broad goals set out in [[IPCC:Wg3:Chapter:Chapter-3|Chapter 3]] and the transport goals set out in [[#10.7|Section 10.7]] .

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