Editing IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-4 (section)

==== 4.2.2.1 Introduction ====

<div id="h3-1-siblings" class="h3-siblings"></div>

Near-term mitigation targets submitted as part of NDCs to the UNFCCC, as well as currently implemented policies, provide a basis for assessing potential emissions levels up to 2030 at the national, regional and global level. The following sections present an evaluation of the methods used for assessing projected emissions under NDCs and current policies (Section 4.2.2.2), and the results of these assessments at global, regional and national level assessing a broad available literature based on first NDC submissions from 2015/16 and pre-COVID economic projections (Section 4.2.2.3). The impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and related government responses on emissions projections are then discussed in Section 4.2.2.4 and the implications of updated NDCs submitted in 2020/21 on emissions follow in Section 4.2.2.5. Section 4.2.2.6 presents an assessment of the so-called ‘implementation gap’ between what currently implemented policies are expected to deliver and what the ambitions laid out under the full implementation of the NDCs are projected to achieve. Finally, a comparison of ambitions across different countries or regions (Section 4.2.2.7) is presented and the uncertainties of projected emissions associated with NDCs and current policies are estimated, including a discussion of measures to reduce uncertainties in the specification of NDCs (Section 4.2.2.8).

The literature reviewed in this section includes globally comprehensive assessments of NDCs and current policies, both peer-reviewed and non-peer-reviewed (but not unpublished model results) as well as synthesis reports by the UNFCCC Secretariat, government reports and national studies.

The aggregate effects of NDCs provide information on where emissions might be in 2025/2030, working forward from their recent levels. [[IPCC:Wg3:Chapter:Chapter-3|Chapter 3]] of this report works backwards from temperature goals, defining a range of long-term global pathways consistent with 1.5°C, 2°C and higher temperature levels. By considering the two together, it is possible to assess whether NDCs are collectively consistent with 1.5°C, 2°C and other temperature pathways (Cross-Chapter Box 4 in this chapter).

<div id="4.2.2.2" class="h3-container"></div>

<span id="methods-to-project-emissions-under-ndcs-and-current-policies"></span>