Editing IPCC:AR6/SR15/Chapter-3 (section)

==== 3.4.6.2 Livestock production ====

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Studies of climate change impacts on livestock production are few in number. Climate change is expected to directly affect yield quantity and quality (Notenbaert et al., 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r898|898]]</sup> , as well as indirectly impacting the livestock sector through feed quality changes and spread of pests and diseases (Kipling et al., 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r899|899]]</sup> ( ''high confidence'' ). Increased warming and its extremes are expected to cause changes in physiological processes in livestock (i.e., thermal distress, sweating and high respiratory rates) (Mortola and Frappell, 2000) <sup>[[#fn:r900|900]]</sup> and to have detrimental effects on animal feeding, growth rates (André et al., 2011; Renaudeau et al., 2011; Collier and Gebremedhin, 2015) <sup>[[#fn:r901|901]]</sup> and reproduction (De Rensis et al., 2015) <sup>[[#fn:r902|902]]</sup> . Wall et al. (2010) <sup>[[#fn:r903|903]]</sup> observed reduced milk yields and increased cow mortality as the result of heat stress on dairy cow production over some UK regions.

Further, a reduction in water supply might increase cattle water demand (Masike and Urich, 2008) <sup>[[#fn:r904|904]]</sup> . Generally, heat stress can be responsible for domestic animal mortality increase and economic losses (Vitali et al., 2009) <sup>[[#fn:r905|905]]</sup> , affecting a wide range of reproductive parameters (e.g., embryonic development and reproductive efficiency in pigs, Barati et al., 2008 <sup>[[#fn:r906|906]]</sup> ; ovarian follicle development and ovulation in horses, Mortensen et al., 2009) <sup>[[#fn:r907|907]]</sup> . Much attention has also been dedicated to ruminant diseases (e.g., liver fluke, Fox et al., 2011 <sup>[[#fn:r908|908]]</sup> ; blue-tongue virus, Guis et al., 2012 <sup>[[#fn:r909|909]]</sup> ; foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), Brito et al. (2017) <sup>[[#fn:r910|910]]</sup> ; and zoonotic diseases, Njeru et al., 2016; Simulundu et al., 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r911|911]]</sup> .

Climate change impacts on livestock are expected to increase. In temperate climates, warming is expected to lengthen the forage growing season but decrease forage quality, with important variations due to rainfall changes (Craine et al., 2010; Hatfield et al., 2011; Izaurralde et al., 2011) <sup>[[#fn:r912|912]]</sup> . Similarly, a decrease in forage quality is expected for both natural grassland in France (Graux et al., 2013) <sup>[[#fn:r913|913]]</sup> and sown pastures in Australia (Perring et al., 2010) <sup>[[#fn:r914|914]]</sup> . Water resource availability for livestock is expected to decrease owing to increased runoff and reduced groundwater resources. Increased temperature will ''likely'' induce changes in river discharge and the amount of water in basins, leading human and livestock populations to experience water stress, especially in the driest areas (i.e., sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia) ( ''medium confidence'' ) (Palmer et al., 2008) <sup>[[#fn:r915|915]]</sup> . Elevated temperatures are also expected to increase methane production (Knapp et al., 2014; M.A. Lee et al., 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r916|916]]</sup> . Globally, a decline in livestock of 7–10% is expected at about 2°C of warming, with associated economic losses between $9.7 and $12.6 billion (Boone et al., 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r917|917]]</sup> .

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