Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-11 (section)

=== 11.4.2 Tangata Whenua—New Zealand Māori ===

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Māori society faces diverse impacts, risks and opportunities from climate change (Table 11.12). Studies exploring climate change impacts, scenarios, policy implications, adaptation options and tools for Māori society have increased substantially (e.g., ( [[#King--2012|King et al., 2012]] ; [[#Bargh--2014|Bargh et al., 2014]] ; [[#Jones--2014|Jones et al., 2014]] ; [[#Bryant--2017|Bryant et al., 2017]] ; [[#Awatere--2018|Awatere et al., 2018]] ; [[#Colliar--2018|Colliar and Blackett, 2018]] ). Māori priorities surrounding climate change risks and natural resource management have been articulated in planning documents by many Māori kin groups (e.g., ( [[#Ngāti%20Tahu-%20Ngāti%20Whaoa%20Rūnanga%20Trust--2013|Ngāti Tahu- Ngāti Whaoa Rūnanga Trust, 2013]] ; [[#Raukawa%20Settlement%20Trust--2015|Raukawa Settlement Trust, 2015]] ; [[#Ngai-Tahu--2018|Ngai-Tahu, 2018]] ; [[#Te%20Urunga%20Kea%20-%20Te%20Arawa%20Climate%20Change%20Working%20Group--2021|Te Urunga Kea - Te Arawa Climate Change Working Group, 2021]] ), reflecting the importance of reducing vulnerability and enhancing resilience to climate impacts and risks through adaptation and mitigation.

'''Table 11.12 |''' Climate-related impacts and risks for Tangata Whenua New Zealand Māori

{| class="wikitable"
|-
! Impact

! Risks

|-
| Changes in drought occurrence and extreme weather events

| Risks to Māori tribal investment in forestry, agriculture and horticulture sector operations and production, particularly across eastern and northern New Zealand ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#King--2010|King et al., 2010]] ; [[#Awatere--2018|Awatere et al., 2018]] ; [[#Hardy--2019|Hardy et al., 2019]] )

|-
| Changes in rainfall, temperature, drought, extreme weather events and ongoing SLR

| Risks to potable water supplies (availability and quality) for remote Māori populations ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#RSNZ--2016|RSNZ, 2016]] ; [[#Henwood--2019|Henwood et al., 2019]] )

|-
| Changes in rainfall, temperature, drought, extreme weather events and ongoing SLR

| Risks of exacerbating existing inequities (e.g., health, economic, education and social services), social cohesion and well-being ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Bennett--2014|Bennett et al., 2014]] ; [[#Jones--2014|Jones et al., 2014]] )

|-
| Changes in rainfall regimes and more intense drought combined with degradation of lands and water

| Risks to the distribution and survival of cultural keystone flora and fauna, as well as cascading risks for Māori customary practice, cultural identity and well-being ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#King--2010|King et al., 2010]] ; [[#RSNZ--2016|RSNZ, 2016]] ; [[#Bond--2019|Bond et al., 2019]] )

|-
| Changes in ocean temperature and acidification

| Risks to nearshore and ocean species productivity and distribution, as well as cascading risks for Māori tribal investment in the fisheries and aquaculture sectors ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#King--2010|King et al., 2010]] ; [[#Law--2016|Law et al., 2016]] )

|-
| Sea-level-rise-induced erosion, flooding and saltwater intrusion

| Risks to Māori-owned coastal lands and economic investment as well as risks to community well-being from displacement of individuals, families and communities ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Manning--2014|Manning et al., 2014]] ; [[#Smith--2017|Smith et al., 2017]] ; [[#Hardy--2019|Hardy et al., 2019]] )

|-
| Sea-level-rise-induced erosion, inundation and saltwater intrusion

| Risks to Māori cultural heritage as well as cascading risks for tribal identity and spiritual well-being ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#King--2010|King et al., 2010]] ; [[#Manning--2014|Manning et al., 2014]] ; [[#RSNZ--2016|RSNZ, 2016]] )

|-
| Impacts of climate change, adaptation and mitigation actions

| Risks that governments are unable to uphold Māori interests, values and practices under the Treaty of Waitangi, creating new, modern-day breaches of the Treaty of Waitangi ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Iorns%20Magallanes--2019|Iorns Magallanes, 2019]] ; [[#MfE--2020a|MfE, 2020a]] )

|}

Māori have long-term interests in land and water and are heavily invested in climate-sensitive sectors (agriculture, forestry, fishing, tourism and renewable energy) ( [[#King--2010|King et al., 2010]] ). Large proportions of collectively owned land already suffer from high rates of erosion ( [[#Warmenhoven--2014|Warmenhoven et al., 2014]] ; [[#Awatere--2018|Awatere et al., 2018]] ), which are projected to be exacerbated by climate-change-induced extreme rainfalls ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#RSNZ--2016|RSNZ, 2016]] ; [[#Awatere--2018|Awatere et al., 2018]] ). Changing drought occurrence, particularly across eastern and northern New Zealand, is also projected to affect primary sector operations and production ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#King--2010|King et al., 2010]] ; [[#Smith--2017|Smith et al., 2017]] ; [[#Awatere--2018|Awatere et al., 2018]] ). Further, many Māori-owned lands and cultural assets, such as marae and urupa, are located on coastal lowlands vulnerable to sea level rise (SLR) impacts ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Manning--2014|Manning et al., 2014]] ; [[#Hardy--2019|Hardy et al., 2019]] ). Māori tribal investment in fisheries and aquaculture faces substantial risks from changes in ocean temperature and acidification and the downstream impacts on species distribution, productivity and yields ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Law--2016|Law et al., 2016]] ). A clearer understanding of climate change risks and the implications for sustainable outcomes can enable more informed decisions by tribal organisations and governance groups.

Changing climate conditions are projected to exacerbate health inequities faced by Māori ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Bennett--2014|Bennett et al., 2014]] ; [[#Jones--2014|Jones et al., 2014]] ; [[#Hopkins--2015|Hopkins, 2015]] ). The production and ecology of some keystone cultural flora and fauna may be impacted by projected warming temperatures and reductions in rainfall ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#RSNZ--2016|RSNZ, 2016]] ; [[#Bond--2019|Bond et al., 2019]] ; [[#Egan--2020|Egan et al., 2020]] ). Obstruction of access to keystone species is expected to adversely impact customary practice, cultural identity and well-being ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Jones--2014|Jones et al., 2014]] ; [[#Bond--2019|Bond et al., 2019]] ). Social-cultural networks and conventions that promote collective action and mutual support are central features of many Māori communities, and these practices are invaluable for initiating responses to, and facilitating recovery from, climate stresses and extreme events ( [[#King--2011|King et al., 2011]] ; [[#Hopkins--2015|Hopkins et al., 2015]] ). Māori tribal organisations have a critical role in defining climate risks and policy responses ( [[#Bargh--2014|Bargh et al., 2014]] ; [[#Parsons--2019|Parsons et al., 2019]] ), as well as entering into strategic partnerships with business, science, research and government to address these risks ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Manning--2014|Manning et al., 2014]] ; [[#Beall--2017|Beall and Brocklesby, 2017]] ; [[#CCATWG--2017|CCATWG, 2017]] ).

More integrated assessments of climate change impacts, adaptation and socioeconomic risk for different Māori groups and communities, in the context of multiple stresses, inequities and different ways of knowing and being ( [[#King--2013|King et al., 2013]] ; [[#Schneider--2017|Schneider et al., 2017]] ; [[#Henwood--2019|Henwood et al., 2019]] ), would assist those striving to evaluate impacts and risks and how to integrate these assessments into adaptation plans ( ''high confidence'' ). Better understanding of the social, cultural and fiscal implications of sea level rise (SLR) is urgent ( [[#PCE--2015|PCE, 2015]] ; [[#Rouse--2017|Rouse et al., 2017]] ; [[#Colliar--2018|Colliar and Blackett, 2018]] ), including what duties local and central government might have with respect to actively upholding Māori interests under the Treaty of Waitangi ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Iorns%20Magallanes--2019|Iorns Magallanes, 2019]] ). Intergenerational approaches to climate change planning will become increasingly important, elevating political discussions about conceptions of rationality, diversity and the rights of non-human entities ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Ritchie--2013|Ritchie, 2013]] ; [[#Carter--2018|Carter et al., 2018]] ; [[#Ruru--2018|Ruru, 2018]] ; [[#Munshi--2020|Munshi et al., 2020]] ).

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