Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-12 (section)

==== 12.5.4.1 Challenges and Opportunities ====

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Even though several regions have seen significant improvements in food availability, many countries are also experiencing a declining trend in food self-sufficiency ( [[#Porkka--2013|Porkka et al., 2013]] ; [[#Rolando--2017|Rolando et al., 2017]] ). Drought conditions in CA and the Caribbean increased in line with climate model predictions ( [[#Herrera--2018a|Herrera et al., 2018a]] ). The direct social and economic consequences for the sector are evident in CA’s so-called Dry Corridor, with a growing dependence on food imports ( [[#Porkka--2013|Porkka et al., 2013]] ), and these degrees of dependency make the region more vulnerable to price variability, climatic conditions ( [[#Bren%20d’Amour--2016|Bren d’Amour et al., 2016]] ; [[#ECLAC--2018|ECLAC, 2018]] ) and, therefore, to food insecurity in the absence of adaptation actions ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Porkka--2013|Porkka et al., 2013]] ; [[#Bren%20d’Amour--2016|Bren d’Amour et al., 2016]] ; López Feldman and Hernández [[#Cortés--2016|Cortés, 2016]] ; [[#Eitzinger--2017|Eitzinger et al., 2017]] ; [[#Imbach--2017|Imbach et al., 2017]] ; [[#Lachaud--2017|Lachaud et al., 2017]] ; [[#Harvey--2018|Harvey et al., 2018]] ; [[#Niles--2018|Niles and Salerno, 2018]] ; [[#del%20Pozo--2019|del Pozo et al., 2019]] ; [[#Alpízar--2020|Alpízar et al., 2020]] ; [[#Anaya--2020|Anaya et al., 2020]] ).

Given these circumstances, some regions in CSA (Andes region and CA) will just meet, or fall below, the critical food supply/demand ratio for their populations ( [[#Bacon--2014|Bacon et al., 2014]] ; [[#Barbier--2018b|Barbier and Hochard, 2018b]] ). Meanwhile, the more temperate part of SA in the south is projected to have agricultural production surpluses ( ''low confidence'' ) ( [[#Webb--2016|Webb et al., 2016]] ; [[#Prager--2020|Prager et al., 2020]] ). The challenge for this region will be to retain the ability to feed and adequately nourish its internal population as well as making food supplies available to the rest of the world.

The access of other markets to the region’s agricultural products might be conditioned on the adoption of low-carbon-agriculture measures. Achieving net-zero emissions while improving standards of living will be possible but will also require developing transition policy frameworks to reach the target ( [[#Frank--2019|Frank et al., 2019]] ; [[#Mahlknecht--2020|Mahlknecht et al., 2020]] ; [[#Cárdenas--2021|Cárdenas et al., 2021]] ).

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