Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-13 (section)

==== 13.7.1.2 Air Quality ====

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Air pollution is already one of the biggest public health concerns in Europe: in 2016, roughly 412,000 people died prematurely due to long-term exposure to ambient PM2.5, 71,000 due to NO 2 and more than 15,000 premature mortalities occurred due to near-surface ozone ( [[#EEA--2019b|EEA, 2019b]] ; [[#Lelieveld--2019|Lelieveld et al., 2019]] ). The impacts of air pollution are determined by air-quality policies, changes to temperature, humidity and precipitation ( [[#Szopa--2021|Szopa et al., 2021]] ). Climate change could increase air pollution health effects, with the size of the effect differing across European regions and pollutants ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Jacob--2009|Jacob and Winner, 2009]] ; [[#Orru--2017|Orru et al., 2017]] ; [[#Tarin-Carrasco--2021|Tarin-Carrasco et al., 2021]] ). Increases in temperature and changes in precipitation will impact future air quality due to increased risk of wildfires and related air pollution episodes. Data on the health impacts of wildfires in Europe is currently limited ( [[#13.3.1.4|Section 13.3.1.4]] ), but examples, such as the 2017 fires, suggest that more than 100 people died prematurely in Portugal alone as a result of poor air quality ( [[#Oliveira--2020|Oliveira et al., 2020]] ).

At 2.5°C GWL, mortalities due to exposure to PM2.5 are projected to increase by up to 73% in Europe ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Silva--2017|Silva et al., 2017]] ; [[#Lelieveld--2019|Lelieveld et al., 2019]] ; [[#Tarin-Carrasco--2021|Tarin-Carrasco et al., 2021]] ). At 2°C GWL, annual premature mortalities due to exposure to near-surface ozone are projected to increase up to 11% in WCE and SEU and to decrease up to 9% in NEU (under RCP4.5) ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Orru--2019|Orru et al., 2019]] ). A projected increase in wildfires and reduced air quality is expected to increase respiratory morbidity and mortality, especially in SEU ( [[#Slezakova--2013|Slezakova et al., 2013]] ; [[#de%20Rigo--2017|de Rigo et al., 2017]] ). Constant or lower emissions, combined with stricter regulations and new policy initiatives, might improve air quality in the coming decades ( ''medium agreement, low evidence'' ). The ageing population in Europe will augment the air-quality mortality burden 3–13% by 2050 ( [[#Geels--2015|Geels et al., 2015]] ; [[#Orru--2019|Orru et al., 2019]] ). Besides ambient air quality, projected increases in flood risk and heavy rainfall could decrease indoor air quality ( [[#13.6.1.5.2|Section 13.6.1.5.2]] ) due to dampness and mould, leading to increased negative health impacts, including allergies, asthma and rhinitis ( [[#EASAC--2019|EASAC, 2019]] ; [[#EEA--2019b|EEA, 2019b]] ).

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