Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-9 (section)

===== 9.5.6.1.2 Projections =====

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At 1.5°C, 2°C and 3°C of global warming above pre-industrial levels, mean annual temperatures in southern Africa are projected to be on average, 1.2°C, 2.3°C and 3.3°C warmer than the 1994–2005 average respectively (Figure 9.16a). The annual number of heatwaves is projected to increase by between 2–4 (GWL 1.5°C), 4–8 (GWL 2°C) and 8–12 (GWL 3°C) and hot and very hot days are ''virtually certain'' to increase under 1.5°C and 2°C of global warming ( [[#Engelbrecht--2015|Engelbrecht et al., 2015]] ; [[#Russo--2016|Russo et al., 2016]] ; [[#Dosio--2017|Dosio, 2017]] ; [[#Weber--2018|Weber et al., 2018]] ; [[#Seneviratne--2021|Seneviratne et al., 2021]] ). Cold days and cold extremes are projected to decrease under all emission scenarios with the strongest decreases associated with low mitigation ( [[#Iyakaremye--2021|Iyakaremye et al., 2021]] ). Children born in 2020, under a 1.5°C-compatible scenario will be exposed to 3–4 times more heatwaves in their lifetimes compared to people born in 1960, although in Angola this is 7–8 times; at GWL 2.4°C this exposure increases to 5–9 times more heatwaves (&gt;10 times in Angola) ( [[#Thiery--2021|Thiery et al., 2021]] ).

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