Editing IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-3 (section)

==== 3.7.4.2 Implications of Mitigation Efforts Along Pathways ====

<div id="h3-23-siblings" class="h3-siblings"></div>

Extending energy access to all in line with SDG7 is compatible with strong mitigation consistent with the Paris Agreement ( ''high confidence'' ). The Low Energy Demand (LED) scenario projects that these twin goals can be achieved by relying heavily on energy efficiency and rapid social transformations ( [[#Grubler--2018|Grubler et al. 2018]] ). The IEA’s Sustainable Development Scenario ( [[#IEA--2020a|IEA 2020a]] ) achieves development outcomes but with higher average energy use, and bottom-up modelling suggests that decent living standards could be provided to all in 2040–2050 with roughly 150 EJ, or 40% of current final energy use ( [[#Millward-Hopkins--2020|Millward-Hopkins et al. 2020]] ; [[#Kikstra--2021b|Kikstra et al. 2021b]] ). The trade-offs between climate mitigation and increasing energy consumption of the world’s poorest are negligible ( [[#Rao--2018|Rao and Min 2018]] ; [[#Scherer--2018|Scherer et al. 2018]] ).

The additional energy demand to meet the basic cooling requirement in the Global South is estimated to be much larger than the electricity needed to provide basic residential energy services universally via clean and affordable energy, as defined by SDG 7 ( [[#IEA--2019|IEA 2019]] ; [[#Mastrucci--2019|Mastrucci et al. 2019]] ) ( ''high confidence'' ) ''.'' If conventional air-conditioning systems are widely deployed to provide cooling, energy use could rise significantly ( [[#van%20Ruijven--2019|van Ruijven et al. 2019]] ; [[#Bezerra--2021|Bezerra et al. 2021]] ; [[#Falchetta--2021|Falchetta and Mistry 2021]] ), thus creating a positive feedback further increasing cooling demand. However, the overall emissions are barely altered by the changing energy demand composition with reductions in heating demand occurring simultaneously ( [[#Isaac--2009|Isaac and van Vuuren 2009]] ; [[#Labriet--2015|Labriet et al. 2015]] ; [[#McFarland--2015|McFarland et al. 2015]] ; [[#Clarke--2018|Clarke et al. 2018]] ). Some mitigation scenarios show price increases of clean cooking fuels, slowing the transition to clean cooking fuels (SDG 7.1) and leaving a billion people in 2050 still reliant on solid fuels in South Asia ( [[#Cameron--2016|Cameron et al. 2016]] ).

In contrast, future energy infrastructure could improve reliability, thus lowering dependence on high-carbon, high-air pollution back-up diesel generators ( [[#Farquharson--2018|Farquharson et al. 2018]] ) that are often used to cope with unreliable power in developing countries ( [[#Maruyama%20Rentschler--2019|Maruyama Rentschler et al. 2019]] ). There can be significant reliability issues where mini-grids are used to electrify rural areas ( [[#Numminen--2019|Numminen and Lund 2019]] ). A stable, sustainable energy transition policy that considers national sustainable development in the short and long term is critical in driving a transition to an energy future that addresses the trilemma of energy security, equity, and sustainability ( [[#La%20Viña--2018|La Viña et al. 2018]] ).

<div id="3.7.5" class="h2-container"></div>

<span id="health"></span>