Editing IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-6 (section)

=== Box 6.12 | Taking Stock of the Energy System Transition ===

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The Global Stocktake is a regularly occurring process under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in which efforts will be made to understand progress on, among other things, global mitigation. Collective progress of countries towards the Paris Agreement goal will be assessed and its outcome will inform Parties in updating and enhancing their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). This box explores potential indicators to understand energy system mitigation progress.

CO 2 emissions from fuel combustion are the bottom line on energy system progress. Beyond CO 2 emissions, primary energy demand by energy sources, final energy consumption by sectors, and total electricity demand provide a first order assessment of energy system transitions. The year at which CO 2 emissions peak is also important. The Kaya Identity can be used to decompose energy system CO 2 emissions into carbon intensity of the energy system (CO 2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and industry divided by energy use), energy intensity (energy use divided by economic output), and economic output. The impacts of energy and climate policy are reflected in the changes of carbon intensity and energy intensity. Carbon intensity captures decarbonisation of energy supply systems, for example, through fuel switching from fossil fuels to non-fossil fuels, upscaling of low-carbon energy sources, and deploying carbon dioxide removal technologies. The carbon intensity of electricity is specifically important, given the role of the electricity sector in near-term mitigation. Economy-wide energy intensity represents efforts of demand-side energy, such as energy conservation, increase of energy performance of technologies, structural change of economy, and development of efficient urban infrastructure.

Beyond these aggregate indicators, a second order assessment would capture more details, such as the electrification rate, share of renewables, nuclear, CCS or other low-carbon technologies in electricity generation, land area used for energy production, and the number of EVs or PHEVs. Consumption of coal, oil and gas captures the underlying factors of CO 2 emissions. The emphasis of these indicators could differ across countries in the context of national specific circumstances. Technology- or project-based statistics are also useful to check the progress of the low-carbon transition, for example, the number of CCS facilities.

A critical challenge in the assessment of energy sector progress is how to measure societal, institutional, and political progress. These factors are difficult to quantify, yet they are fundamental determinants of the ability to reduce emissions. Public opinion, special interest politics, implications of mitigation for employment, energy subsidies, and energy policies are all critical indicators of progress. In addition, while much of the literature focuses on national-level action, mitigation is increasingly being led by cities, states, provinces, businesses, and other sub-national or non-national actors. Understanding the progress of these actors will be critical to assess energy system mitigation progress. New research is needed to better assess these ‘societal’ indicators and the role of non-national actors.

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