Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-10 (section)

==== 10.4.7.2 Projected Impacts ====

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Climate change is associated with significantly increased mortality ( ''high confidence'' ). Figure 10.11 shows projected health impacts due to climate change in Asia. The global estimates of excess deaths due to malnutrition, malaria, diarrhoea and heat stress will be approximately 250,000 deaths per year in 2030–2050 under the medium-to-high emissions scenario, assuming no adaptation ( [[#World%20Health%20Organization--2014|World Health Organization, 2014]] ). The impacts are expected to be greatest in South, East and Southeast Asia. Another projection showed that the change in heat-related deaths is largest in Southeast Asia, which was a 12.7% increase at the end of the century under a high-emissions scenario ( [[#Gasparrini--2017|Gasparrini et al., 2017]] ). As the proportion of older individuals in the population rises, the number of years lost due to disability increases more steeply ( [[#Chung--2017b|Chung et al., 2017b]] ). In the 2080s, the number of annual temperature-related deaths is estimated to reach twice that in the 1980s in China ( [[#Li--2018c|Li et al., 2018c]] ). Over a 20-year period in the mid-21st century (2041–2060), the incidence of excess heat-related mortality in 51 cities in China is estimated to reach 37,800 (95% CI: 31,300–43,500) deaths per year under RCP8.5 ( [[#Bazaz--2018|Bazaz et al., 2018]] ).

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[[File:4d652143d309f8c5a27a059188fa080a IPCC_AR6_WGII_Figure_10_011.png]]

'''Figure 10.11 |''' '''Projected health impacts due to climate change in Asia.'''

Increased concentrations of fine particulate matter and ozone influenced by extreme events such as atmospheric stagnations and heatwaves are projected to result in an additional 12,100 and 8,900 deaths per year due to fine particulate matter and ozone exposure, respectively, in China in the mid-century under RCP4.5 ( [[#Hong--2019a|Hong et al., 2019a]] ). Excess ozone-related future premature deaths is noticeable in 2030 in East Asia and India for RCP8.5 (over 95% of global excess mortality) ( [[#Silva--2016|Silva et al., 2016]] ).

The global estimates for increases in malaria and dengue deaths (annual estimates) are approximately 32,700 and 280 additional deaths, respectively, in 2050 under the medium-to-high emissions scenario ( [[#World%20Health%20Organization--2014|World Health Organization, 2014]] ). Among these additional deaths, 9,300 and 200 deaths, respectively, are projected to occur in South Asia. The population at risk of malaria infection is estimated to increase by 134 million by 2030 in South Asia under the medium-to-high emissions scenario, considering socioeconomic development. If no actions are taken, malaria incidence in northern China is projected to increase by 69–182% by 2050 ( [[#Song--2016|Song et al., 2016]] ). Another study suggested a decrease in climate suitability for malaria in northern and eastern India, southern Myanmar, southern Thailand, the Malaysia border region, Cambodia, eastern Borneo and Indonesia by 2050 ( [[#Khormi--2016|Khormi and Kumar, 2016]] ). By contrast, climate suitability for malaria is projected to increase in the southern and southeast mainland of China and Taiwan, Province of China ( [[#Khormi--2016|Khormi and Kumar, 2016]] ).

Dengue incidence is projected to increase to 16,000 cases per year by 2100 in Dhaka, Bangladesh, if ambient temperatures increase by 3.3°C without any adaptation measures or changes in socioeconomic conditions ( [[#Banu--2014|Banu et al., 2014]] ). This would represent an increase in incidence of over fortyfold compared with 2010. Higher numbers of dengue fever cases are projected to occur under RCP8.5 than RCP2.6 in China ( [[#Song--2017|Song et al., 2017]] ). Compared with the average numbers in 1997–2012, the annual number of days suitable for dengue fever transmission in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s will increase by 15, 25 and 40 d, respectively, in southern China under RCP8.5. In addition, areas in which year-round dengue fever epidemics occur will ''likely'' increase by 4500, 8800 and 20,700 km 2 in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively, under RCP8.5 ( [[#Nahiduzzaman--2015|Nahiduzzaman et al., 2015]] ).

The global estimates for increases in deaths due to diarrhoeal disease (annual estimates) in children under 15 years in 2030 and 2050 are approximately 48,000 and 33,000 additional deaths, respectively, under the medium-to-high emissions scenario ( [[#World%20Health%20Organization--2014|World Health Organization, 2014]] ). Among these additional deaths, 14,900 and 7,700 deaths, respectively, are projected to occur in South Asia. An updated projection with a pathogen-specific approach estimated 25,000 additional annual diarrhoeal deaths in Asia in 2080–2095 under the high-emissions scenario ( [[#Chua--2021|Chua et al., 2021]] ), while in some countries, such as Japan, net reductions in temperature-induced infectious diarrhoeal cases were estimated, because viral infections are dominant in these countries during the cold season ( [[#Onozuka--2019|Onozuka et al., 2019]] ).

South and Southeast Asia are projected to be among the highest-risk regions for reduced dietary iron intake among women of childbearing age and children under five years due to elevated CO 2 concentrations ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Smith--2018|Smith and Myers, 2018]] ). The estimated number of additional deaths due to climate change in children aged under five years attributable to moderate and severe stunting in 2030 and 2050 are approximately 20,700 and 16,500, respectively, in South Asia, under the medium-to-high emissions scenario ( [[#World%20Health%20Organization--2014|World Health Organization, 2014]] ). In Bangladesh, due to climate change, river salinity is projected to be increased in coastal and freshwater fishery communities leading to significant shortages of drinking water in the coastal urban areas ( [[#Dasgupta--2014c|Dasgupta et al., 2014c]] ).

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