Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-13 (section)

==== 13.7.1.4. Allergies and Pollen ====

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The main drivers of allergies are predominantly non-climatic (e.g., increased urbanisation, adoption of westernised lifestyles, social and genetic factors), but climate change strongly contributes to the spread of some allergenic plants, thus exacerbating existing allergies and causing new ones in people across Europe ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#D’Amato--2016|D’Amato et al., 2016]] ; [[#EASAC--2019|EASAC, 2019]] ). The prevalence of hay fever (allergic rhinitis), for example, is between 4 and 30% among European adults ( [[#Pawankar--2013|Pawankar et al., 2013]] ). The invasive common ragweed ( ''Ambrosia asteraceae'' ) is a key species already causing major allergy in late summers (including hay fever and asthma), particularly in Hungary, Romania and parts of Russia ( [[#Ambelas%20Skjøth--2019|Ambelas Skjøth et al., 2019]] ). Across Europe, sensitisation to ragweed is expected to increase from 33 million people in 1986–2005 to 77 million people at 2°C GWL ( [[#Lake--2017|Lake et al., 2017]] ).

Warming will result in an earlier start of the pollen season and extending it, but this differs across regions, species, traits and flowering periods ( [[#Ziello--2012|Ziello et al., 2012]] ; [[#Bock--2014|Bock et al., 2014]] ; [[#EASAC--2019|EASAC, 2019]] ; [[#Revich--2019|Revich et al., 2019]] ). For instance, in different parts of WCE and NEU, the start of birch-season flowering has been shifted and extended up to 2 weeks earlier during recent decades ( [[#Biedermann--2019|Biedermann et al., 2019]] ). Airborne pollen concentrations are projected to increase across Europe ( [[#Ziello--2012|Ziello et al., 2012]] ). In south-eastern Europe, where pollen already has a substantive impact, the pollen count could increase more than 3 to 3.5 times at 2.5°C GWL and can become a more widespread health problem across Europe, particularly where it is currently uncommon ( ''medium agreement, low evidence'' ) ( [[#Lake--2017|Lake et al., 2017]] ).

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