Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-14 (section)

==== 14.5.9.2 Projected Risks ====

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Livelihoods will evolve as a result of both challenges presented directly or indirectly from climate impacts as well as socioeconomic changes and technological developments ( ''high confidence'' ). Livelihoods, however, can be undermined by many of the projected climate risks with the impacts depending on adaptive capacity and adaptation limits ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-8#8.4.5.1|Section 8.4.5.1]] ). Real areas in Mexico and the southern USA with agriculture-based livelihoods and projected reduction in precipitation will be adversely affected ( [[#14.5.4|Section 14.5.4]] ; [[#Esperon-Rodriguez--2016|Esperon-Rodriguez et al., 2016]] ). Outdoor workers in rural and urban areas will be exposed to higher health risks from higher temperatures and heatwaves ( [[#14.5.8|Section 14.5.8]] ). Reduced livelihoods will also be associated with adverse mental health effects ( [[#14.5.6.8|Section 14.5.6.8]] ).

Future climate hazards will deepen patterns of social inequality as vulnerable groups may also experience intersecting impacts that adversely affect their livelihoods ( ''medium confidence'' ). Health, in particular, will be a key intersection as marginalised and disadvantaged groups often have poorer health status and hold occupations that may involve higher exposure to climate hazards. African Americans are expected to experience the largest impacts on their health status due to differential exposure and vulnerability to climate hazards ( [[#14.5.6|Section 14.5.6]] ; [[#Marsha--2016|Marsha et al., 2016]] ).

Displacement, migration and resettlement will increase along higher-emission pathways ( ''medium confidence'' ). Combining projections of SLR and population scenarios for the USA, [[#Haer--2013|Haer et al. (2013)]] and Hauer et al. (2016) have estimated the magnitude of the population at risk in coastal communities, numbering in the millions. In the near term, where climate hazards influence out-migration, it will mostly augment existing patterns as migration is strongly influenced by existing social networks ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-7#7.3.2|Section 7.3.2]] ). Planned relocation and resettlements will reduce the exposure to climate hazards for the involved populations but could adversely affect their livelihoods in the absence of supportive programmes ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-7#7.3.2|Section 7.3.2]] ; [[#Jantarasami--2018a|Jantarasami et al., 2018a]] ), since livelihood outcomes strongly depend on socioeconomic conditions.

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