Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-9 (section)

===== 9.5.6.2.1 Observations =====

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Mean annual rainfall increased over parts of Namibia, Botswana and southern Angola during 1980–2015 by between 128 and 256 mm (Figure 9.13b). Since the 1960s, decreasing precipitation trends have been detected over the South African winter rainfall region ( ''high confidence'' ) and the far eastern parts of South Africa ( ''low confidence'' ) ( [[#Engelbrecht--2009|Engelbrecht et al., 2009]] ; [[#Kruger--2017b|Kruger and Nxumalo, 2017b]] ; [[#Burls--2019|Burls et al., 2019]] ; [[#Lakhraj-Govender--2019|Lakhraj-Govender and Grab, 2019]] ; [[#Gutiérrez--2021|Gutiérrez et al., 2021]] ; [[#Ranasinghe--2021|Ranasinghe et al., 2021]] ). The frequency of dry spells and agricultural drought in the region has increased over the period 1961–2016 ( [[#Yuan--2018|Yuan et al., 2018]] ; [[#Seneviratne--2021|Seneviratne et al., 2021]] ), the frequency of meteorological drought increased by between 2.5–3 events per decade since 1961 (Spinoni et al 2019) and the probability of the multi-year drought over the southwestern cape of South Africa increased by a factor of three (95% confidence interval 1.5–6) in response to global warming ( [[#Otto--2018|Otto et al., 2018]] ). The number and intensity of extreme precipitation events have increased over the last century ( [[#Kruger--2017b|Kruger and Nxumalo, 2017b]] ; [[#Ranasinghe--2021|Ranasinghe et al., 2021]] ; [[#Sun--2021|Sun et al., 2021]] ), and in the Karoo region of southern South Africa, long-term station data show an increasing trend in annual rainfall of greater than 5 mm per decade over the period 1921–2015 ( [[#Kruger--2017b|Kruger and Nxumalo, 2017b]] ).

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