Editing IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-9 (section)

=== 9.9.2 Rebound Effects ===

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In the buildings sector energy efficiency improvements and promotion of cleaner fuels can lead to all types of rebound effects, while sufficiency measures lead only to indirect and secondary effects ( [[#Chitnis--2013|Chitnis et al. 2013]] ). The consideration of the rebound effects as a behavioural economic response of the consumers to cheaper energy services can only partially explain the gap between the expected and actual energy savings ( [[#Galvin--2017|Galvin and Sunikka-Blank 2017]] ). The prebound effect, a term used to describe the situation where there is a significant difference between expected and observed energy consumption of non-refurbished buildings, is usually implicated in high rebound effects upon retrofitting ( [[#Teli--2016|Teli et al. 2016]] ; [[#Calì--2016|Calì et al. 2016]] ; [[#Galvin--2017|Galvin and Sunikka-Blank 2017]] ). The access for all to modern energy services such as heating and cooling is one of the well-being objectives governments aim for. However, ensuring this access leads to an increase of energy demand which is considered as a rebound effect by ( [[#Chitnis--2013|Chitnis et al. 2013]] ; [[#Orea--2015|Orea et al. 2015]] ; [[#Poon--2015|Poon 2015]] ; [[#Teli--2016|Teli et al. 2016]] ; [[#Seebauer--2018|Seebauer 2018]] ; [[#Sorrell--2018|Sorrell et al. 2018]] ; [[#Berger--2019|Berger and Höltl 2019]] ). [[#Aydin--2017|Aydin et al. (2017)]] found that in the Netherlands the rebound effect for the lowest wealth quantile is double compared to the highest wealth quantile. Similar, energy access in developing countries leads to an increase consumption compared to very low baselines which is considered by some authors as rebound ( [[#Copiello--2017|Copiello 2017]] ). On the other hand, in households whose members have a higher level of education and/or strong environmental values, the rebound is lower ( [[#Seebauer--2018|Seebauer 2018]] ).

Rebound effects in the building sector could be a co-benefit, in cases where the mechanisms involved provide faster access to affordable energy and/or contribute to improved social well-being, or a trade-off, to the extent that the external costs of the increased energy consumption exceed the welfare benefits of the increased energy service consumption ( [[#Chan--2015|Chan and Gillingham 2015]] ; [[#Borenstein--2015|Borenstein 2015]] ; [[#Galvin--2017|Galvin and Sunikka-Blank 2017]] ; [[#Sorrell--2018|Sorrell et al. 2018]] ). In cases where rebound effects are undesirable, appropriate policies could be implemented for their mitigation.

There is great variation in estimates of the direct and indirect rebound effects, which stems from the end-uses included in the analysis, differences in definitions and methods used to estimate the rebound effects, the quality of the data utilised, the period of analysis and the geographical area in consideration ( [[#International%20Risk%20Governance%20Council--2013|International Risk Governance Council 2013]] ; [[#Galvin--2014|Galvin 2014]] ; [[#Gillingham--2016|Gillingham et al. 2016]] ). Several studies examined in the context of this assessment (see Supplementary Material Table 9.SM.7) showed that direct rebound effects for residential energy consumption, which includes heating, are significant and range between –9% and 127%. The direct rebound effects for energy services other than heating may be lower ( [[#Chen--2018|Chen et al. 2018]] ; [[#Sorrell--2018|Sorrell et al. 2018]] ). The rebound effects may be reduced with the time as the occupants learn how to optimally use the systems installed in energy renovated buildings ( [[#Calì--2016|Calì et al. 2016]] ) and seem to be lower in the case of major renovations leading to NZEB ( [[#Corrado--2016|Corrado et al. 2016]] ). The combined direct and indirect or the indirect only rebound effects were found to range between –2% and 80%, with a median at 12% (see Supplementary Material Table 9.SM.7). In non-residential buildings the rebound effects may be smaller, as the commercial sector is characterised by lower price elasticities of energy demand, while the comfort level in commercial buildings before renovation is likely to be better compared to residential buildings ( [[#Qiu--2014|Qiu 2014]] ).

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