Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-5 (section)

== 5.8 Ocean-Based and Inland Fisheries Systems ==

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The livelihoods of 10–12% of the world’s population depend on fisheries and aquaculture ( [[#FAO--2020c|FAO, 2020c]] ). Globally, fish provide more than 3.3 billion people with 20% of their average per capita intake of animal proteins, reaching 50% or more in countries such as Bangladesh, Cambodia, The Gambia, Ghana, Indonesia, Sierra Leone, Sri Lanka and several Small Island Developing States ( [[#FAO--2020c|FAO, 2020c]] ). Between 1961 and 2017, the average annual apparent global food fish consumption increased (3.1% per year; from 9.0 kg per person in 1961 to 20.5 kg in 2018), exceeding the rate of increase in consumption of meat from all terrestrial animals combined (2.1% annually, currently around 40 kg per person) ( [[#FAO--2020d|FAO, 2020d]] ). Fish are a rich source of protein and specific vitamins and minerals ( [[#Khalili%20Tilami--2018|Khalili Tilami and Sampels, 2018]] ), and are an essential food source in regions in need of nutritious, affordable food ( [[#Thilsted--2016|Thilsted et al., 2016]] ; [[#FAO--2018|FAO et al., 2018]] ; [[#Hicks--2019|Hicks et al., 2019]] ; Cross-Chapter Box MOVING PLATE this chapter).

Overall capture fishery production has remained relatively static since the 1990s, reaching 96.4 million tonnes in 2018, with over 87% of the production coming from marine environments and the rest from inland fisheries ( [[#FAO--2020c|FAO, 2020c]] ). Finfish represent 85% of global marine seafood production, with small pelagic fishes (anchovies, sardines and herrings) as the major contributor. Almost 60% of the total global marine catches come from China, Peru, Indonesia, the Russian Federation, the USA, India, Viet Nam, Japan, Norway and Chile ( [[#FAO--2020c|FAO, 2020c]] ). Inland fisheries are found on every continent other than Antarctica and provide 158 million people the equivalent of all dietary animal protein ( [[#McIntyre--2016|McIntyre et al., 2016]] ). Inland production accounted for 12 million tonnes in 2018, with nearly 70% of capture from low-income Asian and African countries ( [[#Harrod--2018a|Harrod et al., 2018a]] ).

The aquaculture and fisheries’ share of gross domestic product (GDP) varies mostly from 0.01% to 10% ( [[#Cai--2019|Cai et al., 2019]] ), but the relative importance in countries’ economies and welfare is greater in several low-income countries, especially in many African and Pacific Island states. Approximately 60 million people are directly employed in fisheries value chains, from harvesting to distribution ( [[#Vannuccini--2018|Vannuccini et al., 2018]] ); around 95% of them are in small-scale fisheries of low- and middle-income countries, and almost half are women.

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=== 5.8.1 Observed Impacts ===

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Ocean systems are already facing significant impacts of climate change. At the ocean surface, temperature has on average increased by 0.88 [0.68–1.01] °C from 1850–1900 to 2011–2020 ( [[#Fox-Kemper--2021|Fox-Kemper et al., 2021]] ; [[#Gulev--2021|Gulev et al., 2021]] ). Marine heatwaves have increased in frequency over the 20th century, with an approximate doubling since the 1980s ( ''high confidence'' ), and their intensity and duration have also increased ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#IPCC--2021|IPCC, 2021]] , Box 9.2). In the Northeast Pacific, for example, an intense and long-lasting marine heatwave during 2013–2015 bridged to the strong 2015–2016 El Niño ( [[#Tseng--2017|Tseng et al., 2017]] ) resulted in over 5 years of warmer-than-normal temperatures affecting the migration, distribution and abundance of several marine species, including fisheries resources ( [[#Cornwall--2019|Cornwall, 2019]] ; [[#Jiménez-Quiroz--2019|Jiménez-Quiroz et al., 2019]] ). The surface open ocean pH has declined globally over the last 40 years by 0.003–0.026 pH per decade ( ''virtually certain'' ), and a decline in the ocean interior pH has been observed in all ocean basins over the past two to three decades ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Gulev--2021|Gulev et al., 2021]] ). The ocean is losing dissolved oxygen ( ''very likely'' ) in the range of 0.5–3.3% between 1970 and 2010 for the 0–1000 m depth stratum ( [[#Bindoff--2019|Bindoff et al., 2019]] ; [[#Canadell--2021|Canadell et al., 2021]] ), salt content is being redistributed ( ''very likely'' ) ( [[#Liu--2019a|Liu et al., 2019a]] ; [[#Gulev--2021|Gulev et al., 2021]] ) and vertical stratification is increasing ( ''virtually certain'' ) ( [[#HLPE--2017a|HLPE, 2017a]] ; [[#Fox-Kemper--2021|Fox-Kemper et al., 2021]] ; [[#Ranasinghe--2021|Ranasinghe et al., 2021]] ). There is ''high confidence'' that all these new physical, chemical and biological conditions affect marine organisms’ physiology, distribution and ecology, with an overall shift in biomass and species composition affecting ecosystem structure and function (Chapter 3). Under climate change, freshwater ecosystems are highly exposed to eutrophication, species invasion and rising temperatures ( [[#Lynch--2016|Lynch et al., 2016]] ; [[#Hassan--2020|Hassan et al., 2020]] ). Major threats to wetland fisheries include water stress, sedimentation, weed proliferation, sea level rise and loss of wetland connectivity ( [[#Naskar--2018|Naskar et al., 2018]] ).

Changes in aquatic ecosystems directly affect humans by altering livelihood, cultural identity and sense of self, and seafood provision, quality and safety. The state of marine fishery resources has continued to decline, with the proportion of fish stocks at biologically unsustainable levels of exploitation increasing from 10% in 1974 to 34.2% in 2017 ( [[#FAO--2020d|FAO, 2020d]] ). There is ''medium confidence'' that fisheries production declines in different world regions can be partly attributed to climate change, along with overfishing and other socioeconomic factors. It has been estimated that, from 1930 to 2010, the amount of fish that can be sustainably harvested from several marine fish populations has decreased by 4.1% globally due to ocean warming, with some regions (East Asian Marginal Seas, the North Sea, the Iberian Coast and the Celtic-Biscay Shelf), experiencing losses of 15–35% ( [[#Free--2019|Free et al., 2019]] ). There is regional variation such as redistribution of fishing grounds, due to climate-induced fish species migrations (Cross-Chapter Box MOVING PLATE this chapter). In Tanzania, for example, most small-scale fishers (75%) have reported shifting fishing grounds from nearshore to offshore areas during the last decade, due to perceived combined effects of overfishing and environmental impacts ( [[#Silas--2020|Silas et al., 2020]] ). Observed impacts in some inland aquatic systems indicate substantial productivity reductions ( ''medium confidence'' ). For example, sustained warming in Lake Tanganyika during the last ∼ 150 years has affected the biological productivity by strengthening and shallowing stratification of the water column ( [[#Cohen--2016|Cohen et al., 2016]] ). Still, over 60% of the published reports on directly observed impacts of climate change on freshwater biota are on salmonids in North America and Europe, highlighting significant literature gaps for other fish species and regions ( [[#Myers--2017a|Myers et al., 2017a]] ).

There is ''low confidence'' in climate change affecting the nutritious value of seafood. Contrasting evidence suggests that ocean warming and acidification could be altering the nutritional quality of commercial mollusks, primarily by reducing healthy fatty acids content ( [[#Tate--2017|Tate et al., 2017]] ; Ab [[#Lah--2018|Lah et al., 2018]] ; [[#Lemasson--2019|Lemasson et al., 2019]] ), but Coleman (2019) found no significant changes in a widely distributed coastal fish species.

In terms of food safety, there is ''high confidence'' that climate change increases the trends in seafood consumption related illnesses due to biological agents such as algae-produced toxins, ciguatera and ''Vibrio'' (Cross-Chapter Box ILLNESS in Chapter 2, Sections 5.11 and 5.12). Increased surface water warming changes the occurrence, intensity, species composition and toxicity of marine and freshwater algae and bacteria, and expansion to areas where they had not been reported before ( [[#Botana--2016|Botana, 2016]] ; [[#McCabe--2016|McCabe et al., 2016]] ; [[#Griffith--2019|Griffith et al., 2019]] ). There is ''limited evidence'' suggesting that risks linked to the bioaccumulation of chemicals are also of concern, such as neurotoxic methylmercury (MeHg) and heavy metals, due to water quality and trophic changes induced by climate change ( [[#Shi--2016|Shi et al., 2016]] ; [[#Schartup--2019|Schartup et al., 2019]] ).

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=== 5.8.2 Assessing Vulnerabilities ===

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In the absence of adaptive measures, climate-induced changes in the abundances and distributions of fish will impact the provision, nutrition and livelihood security of many people ( ''high confidence'' ) as well as regional and global trade patterns ( ''medium confidence'' ).

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==== 5.8.2.1 Food security: provision and nutrition ====

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The importance of seafood in food security and nutrition is increasing, largely due to its contribution as high-quality food ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Hicks--2019|Hicks et al., 2019]] ), as seafood contains unique long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids (LC-PUFAs) and highly bioavailable essential micronutrients—vitamins (A, B and D) and minerals (calcium, phosphorus, iodine, zinc, iron and selenium). These compounds, often not readily available elsewhere in diets, have beneficial effects for adult health and child cognitive development ( [[#HLPE--2014|HLPE, 2014]] ). Changes in marine and freshwater fish production can have significant consequences for human nutrition ( [[#Colombo--2020|Colombo et al., 2020]] ). These changes are of particular concern in regions with few nutrition alternatives, such as low-income countries in Africa, Asia, Australasia, and Central and South America ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Ding--2017|Ding et al., 2017]] ; [[#Kibria--2017|Kibria et al., 2017]] ).

Freshwater ecosystems that support most inland fisheries are under continuing threat from changes in land use, water availability and pollution and other pressures that will be exacerbated by climate change ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-4#4.3.5|Section 4.3.5]] ). Declines in dissolved oxygen in freshwater are 2.75–9.3 times greater than observed in the world’s oceans ( [[#Jane--2021|Jane et al., 2021]] ). These systems have a relatively low buffering capacity and are therefore more sensitive to climate-related shocks and variability ( [[#Harrod--2018b|Harrod et al., 2018b]] ). Freshwater faunae are projected to be highly vulnerable; in the tropics because organisms are closer to approaching their thermal physiological limits and in the northern hemisphere (30–50°N) because the rate of temperature change is faster ( [[#Comte--2017|Comte and Olden, 2017]] ). The worldwide spatial confluence of productive freshwater fisheries and low food security highlights the critical role of rivers and lakes in providing locally sourced, low-cost, nutritious food sources ( [[#McIntyre--2016|McIntyre et al., 2016]] ).

Deltas and other wetland fisheries are extremely vulnerable to climate change and home to a large and growing proportion of the world’s population. In India, Ghana and Bangladesh, where three of the most populated Deltaic systems are located, subsistence fisheries provide 12–60% of the animal protein in people’s diets ( [[#Lauria--2018|Lauria et al., 2018]] ).

The concern over aquatic food products’ safety due to climate change is increasing ( ''high confidence'' ). A strong positive relationship exists between specific bacterial growth rates and temperature, including pathogenic species of the genera ''Vibrio'' , ''Listeria'' , ''Clostridium'' , ''Aeromonas'' , ''Salmonella'' , ''Escherichia'' and others, whose distributional area is expanding with changing climate conditions (Cross-Chapter Box ILLNESS in Chapter 2, [[#5.12.1|Section 5.12.1]] ).

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==== 5.8.2.2 Social vulnerabilities, including gender and marginalised groups and cultural services ====

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There is ''high confidence'' that climate change is and will continue to be a threat to the livelihood of millions of fishers, with the most vulnerable being those with fewer opportunities and less income ( [[#Barange--2018|Barange and Cochrane, 2018]] ; [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-3#3.4.3|Section 3.4.3]] ). The social vulnerability can differ largely between locations, even between relatively close coastal or inland communities ( [[#Bennett--2014|Bennett et al., 2014]] ; [[#Maina--2016|Maina et al., 2016]] ; [[#Ndhlovu--2017|Ndhlovu et al., 2017]] ; [[#Martins--2019|Martins et al., 2019]] ) and among inhabitants within a location, depending on factors such as access to other economic activities, education, health, adults in the household, and political connections ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Senapati--2017|Senapati and Gupta, 2017]] ; [[#Abu%20Samah--2019|Abu Samah et al., 2019]] ; [[#Lowe--2019|Lowe et al., 2019]] ).

Indigenous coastal communities consume 1.5–2.8 million metric tonnes of fish per year (about 2% of global yearly commercial marine catch), and reach a per capita consumption estimated to be 15 times greater than that of non-Indigenous country populations ( [[#Cisneros-Montemayor--2016|Cisneros-Montemayor et al., 2016]] ). There is ''high confidence'' that some Indigenous fishing communities are particularly vulnerable to climate change through a reduced capacity to conduct traditional harvests because of limited access to, or availability of, fish resources ( [[#Weatherdon--2016|Weatherdon et al., 2016]] ), with consequences that include dietary shifts with significant nutritional and health implications ( [[#Marushka--2019|Marushka et al., 2019]] ), displacement and loss of cultural identity ( [[#Sullivan--2018|Sullivan and Rosenberg, 2018]] ) and loss of social, economic and cultural rights ( [[#Finkbeiner--2018|Finkbeiner et al., 2018]] ). Areas of high risk for Indigenous Peoples include the Arctic, coastal communities with a high dependency on marine and freshwater fisheries, and Small Island States and Territories ( [[#Finkbeiner--2018|Finkbeiner et al., 2018]] ; [[#Hanich--2018|Hanich et al., 2018]] , Section [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/5#CCP6.2.5 CCP6.2.5.1] ).

Women play a crucial role along the entire fisheries value chain, providing labour force in industrialised and small-scale fisheries all around the world ( [[#FAO--2020d|FAO, 2020d]] ). For small-scale fisheries alone, women represent about 11% of the labour force, and their activity is generally in subsistence fisheries, highlighting their role in household food security ( [[#Harper--2020|Harper et al., 2020]] ). In general, gendered division of labour tends to cause lower salaries for women and different perception and experience of risk to climate change impacts ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Lokuge--2017|Lokuge and Hilhorst, 2017]] ).

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==== 5.8.2.3 Management, economic and geopolitical vulnerabilities ====

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Local, national, regional and international fisheries are mostly underprepared for geographic shifts in marine animals driven by climate change over the coming decades ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Pinsky--2018|Pinsky et al., 2018]] ; [[#Oremus--2020|Oremus et al., 2020]] ; [[#Pinsky--2020|Pinsky et al., 2020]] ). With fisheries distribution changes, sometimes into areas dedicated to different historical uses or new ventures, the current management regimes will face constraining legal frameworks ( [[#Farady--2019|Farady and Bigford, 2019]] ; [[#Pinsky--2020|Pinsky et al., 2020]] ), which will demand interventions in the form of policies, programmes and actions, at multiple scales (Cross-Chapter Box MOVING PLATE this chapter). Coordinated fisheries management can substantially expand capacity to respond to a changing climate ( [[#Pinsky--2020|Pinsky et al., 2020]] ), but a great deal of political will, capacity building and collective action will be necessary ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Teslić--2017|Teslić et al., 2017]] ; [[#Burden--2019|Burden and Fujita, 2019]] ; [[#5.8.4|Section 5.8.4]] ).

Today, approximately half the world’s population (~4 billion out of 7.8 billion people) are assessed as being currently subject to severe water scarcity for at least 1 month per year ( ''medium confidence'' ) (Box 4.1), and freshwater inland fisheries are particularly vulnerable as they are given lower priority for water resources than other sectors ( ''high confidence'' ). In some cases, this situation results in the total loss of freshwater fisheries. Examples include diversion of water for agriculture, shifts from food provision to recreational fisheries, conserving biodiversity, and the requirement for high-quality water for drinking water supply ( [[#5.13|Section 5.13]] , [[#Harrod--2018a|Harrod et al., 2018a]] ).

There is ''high confidence'' that climate change increases the risk of conflicts due to the redistribution of stocks and their abundance fluctuations, with subsequent impacts on resource sharing ( [[#Spijkers--2017|Spijkers and Boonstra, 2017]] ; [[#Pinsky--2018|Pinsky et al., 2018]] ; [[#Spijkers--2018|Spijkers et al., 2018]] ; [[#Mendenhall--2020|Mendenhall et al., 2020]] ; [[#Pinsky--2020|Pinsky et al., 2020]] ). High vulnerability and lack of adaptive capacity to climate change impacts (including fisheries-dependent livelihoods, attachment to place, and pre-existing tensions) increase the risk of conflicts, including among fishery area users and authorities ( [[#Ndhlovu--2017|Ndhlovu et al., 2017]] ; [[#Shaffril--2017|Shaffril et al., 2017]] ; [[#Spijkers--2017|Spijkers and Boonstra, 2017]] ; [[#Mendenhall--2020|Mendenhall et al., 2020]] ). Similarly, shifts in the distribution of transboundary fish stocks under climate change alter the current sharing of resources between countries and create conflicts as well as new opportunities (Cross-Chapter Box MOVING PLATE this chapter, [[#Spijkers--2017|Spijkers and Boonstra, 2017]] ; [[#Pinsky--2018|Pinsky et al., 2018]] ).

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=== 5.8.3 Projected Impacts ===

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There is ''medium confidence'' that climate change will reduce global fisheries’ productivity ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-3#3.4.4|Section 3.4.4.2.3]] ), with more significant reductions in tropical and subtropical regions and gains in the poleward areas ( [[#Bindoff--2019|Bindoff et al., 2019]] ; [[#Oremus--2020|Oremus et al., 2020]] ). Through an ensemble of marine ecosystem models and Earth System Models, mean global animal biomass in the ocean has been estimated to decrease by 5% under the RCP2.6 emissions scenario and 17% under RCP8.5 by 2100, with an average decline of 5% for every 1°C of warming ( [[#Lotze--2019|Lotze et al., 2019]] ), affecting food provision, revenue distribution, and potentially hindering the rebuilding of depleted fish stocks ( [[#Britten--2017|Britten et al., 2017]] ). The projected declining rates result in a 5.3–7% estimated global decrease in marine fish catch potential by 2050 ( [[#Cheung--2019|Cheung et al., 2019]] ), particularly accentuated in tropical marine ecosystems and affecting many low-income countries ( [[#Barange--2018|Barange and Cochrane, 2018]] ; [[#Bindoff--2019|Bindoff et al., 2019]] ; Cross-Chapter Box MOVING PLATE this chapter). Projections indicate that by 2060 the number of exclusive economic zones (EEZs) with new transboundary stocks will increase to 46 under strong mitigation RCP2.6, and up to 60 EEZs under the RCP8.5 GHG emissions scenario ( [[#Pinsky--2018|Pinsky et al., 2018]] ). Similarly, by combining six intercompared marine ecosystem models, [[#Bryndum-Buchholz--2019|Bryndum-Buchholz et al. (2019)]] projected that under the RCP8.5 scenario a total marine animal biomass decline of 15–30% would occur in the North and South Atlantic and Pacific and the Indian Ocean by 2100. In contrast, polar ocean basins would experience a 20–80% increase. In the eastern Bering Sea, simulations based on RCP8.5 predict declines of pollock (&gt;70%) and cod (&gt;35%) stocks by the end of the century ( [[#Holsman--2020|Holsman et al., 2020]] ). Temperate tunas (albacore, Atlantic bluefin and southern bluefin) and the tropical bigeye tuna are expected to decline in the tropics and shift poleward by the end of the century under RCP8.5, while skipjack and yellowfin tunas are projected to increase abundance in tropical areas of the eastern Pacific but decrease in the equatorial western Pacific ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Erauskin-Extramiana--2019|Erauskin-Extramiana et al., 2019]] ). In the western and central Pacific, redistribution of tropical tuna due to climate change is projected to affect license revenues from purse seine fishing and shift more fishing into high seas areas ( [[#Bell--2018|Bell et al., 2018]] ; Table 15.5). For the east Atlantic, observational evidence indicates that not only will tuna distribution change with temperature anomalies, but also fishing effort distribution ( [[#Rubio--2020a|Rubio et al., 2020a]] ). There is ''medium confidence'' that climate change will create new fishing opportunities when exploited fish stocks shift their distribution into new fishing regions in enclosed seas, such as the Mediterranean and the Black Sea ( [[#Hidalgo--2018|Hidalgo et al., 2018]] ; [[#Pinsky--2018|Pinsky et al., 2018]] ). However, in general, where land barriers constrain the latitudinal shifts, the expected impacts of climate change are population declines and reduced productivity ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Oxenford--2018|Oxenford and Monnereau, 2018]] ). Besides direct impacts on the abundance of fisheries-targeted species, climate-change-induced proliferation of invasive species could also affect fisheries’ productivity ( ''low confidence'' ) ( [[#Mellin--2016|Mellin et al., 2016]] ; [[#Goldsmith--2019|Goldsmith et al., 2019]] ).

Shifting marine fisheries will affect national economies ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Bindoff--2019|Bindoff et al., 2019]] ). It has been suggested that, without government subsides, fishing is already non-profitable in 54% of the international waters ( [[#Sala--2018|Sala et al., 2018]] ). Projections are that fishing maximum revenue potential from landed catches will decrease further by 10.4% (±4.2%) by 2050 relative to 2000 under RCP8.5, close to 35% greater than the decrease projected for the global maximum catch potential (7.7±4.4%); ( [[#Lam--2016|Lam et al., 2016]] ). The global revenue potential loss for that period ranges from USD 6 to 15 billion (depending on the model), but impacts may be amplified at the regional scale for fisheries-dependent and low-income countries. The maximum revenue potential percentage decrease in the EEZ under RCP8.5 is estimated to be over 2.3 times larger than that of the high seas ( [[#Lam--2016|Lam et al., 2016]] ). Ocean acidification is also expected to drive large global economic impacts ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Cooley--2015|Cooley et al., 2015]] ; [[#Fernandes--2017|Fernandes et al., 2017]] ; [[#Macko--2017|Macko et al., 2017]] ; [[#Hansel--2020|Hansel et al., 2020]] ), and there is ''high confidence'' that the integrated economic consequences of all interacting climate change-related factors would result in even larger losses. Changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events will also alter marine ecosystems and productivity. Marine heatwaves can lead to severe and persistent impacts, from mass mortality of benthic communities to decline in fisheries catch ( [[#IPCC--2021|IPCC, 2021]] , Box 9.2). These events have ''very likely'' doubled in frequency between 1982 and 2016 and have also become more intense and longer ( [[#Smale--2019|Smale et al., 2019]] ; [[#Laufkotter--2020|Laufkotter et al., 2020]] ); for all future scenarios Earth System Models project even more frequent, intense and longer-lasting marine heatwaves ( [[#Eyring--2021|Eyring et al., 2021]] ; [[#IPCC--2021|IPCC, 2021]] , Box 9.2).

In addition to temperature and water availability stress, climate change will bring new water quality challenges in freshwater systems, including increased dissolved organic carbon and toxic metal loads ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Chen--2016|Chen et al., 2016]] ). [[#Harrod--2018a|Harrod et al. (2018a)]] found that the two major inland fishery producers (China and India) will face significant stress in the future, a large group of countries that produce around 60% of total yield is projected to face medium stress, and a small group of 17 countries has the least severe repercussions ( ''medium confidence'' ). Climate warming may enhance northward colonisation of water bodies of commercial freshwater species in the Arctic, where there are few ecological competitors ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Campana--2020|Campana et al., 2020]] ) but at the same time may also accentuate the age-truncation effect of harvesting, elevating the population’s vulnerability to environmental perturbations ( [[#Smalås--2019|Smalås et al., 2019]] ). Detailed information on many of the most important inland fisheries is limited.

In terms of food safety, major concerns linked to climate change include the continued trend of increasing HABs, and the quantity of pollutants reaching aquatic systems (Box 3.3; [[#5.11|Section 5.11]] ).

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=== 5.8.4 Adaptation ===

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Adaptation options in land- and aquatic-based culturing food production systems include both governance actions and changes in the factors of production ( [[#5.4.4|Section 5.4.4]] , 5.5.4, [[#Reverter--2020|Reverter et al., 2020]] ). In contrast, adaptation options in fisheries are primarily concentrated in the socioeconomic dimension, especially governance and management ( [[#Brander--2018|Brander et al., 2018]] ; [[#Holsman--2019|Holsman et al., 2019]] ), and given the scale of the problem, there are relatively few intentional, well-documented examples of implemented tactical responses ( [[#Bell--2020|Bell et al., 2020]] ).

The proportion of fisheries operating at levels that are considered biologically unsustainable by the FAO has increased from 10% in 1974 to 34.2% in 2017 ( [[#FAO--2020d|FAO, 2020d]] ). There is ''high confidence'' that reducing stresses on marine ecosystems reduces vulnerability to climate change and augments resilience ( [[#Barange--2019|Barange, 2019]] ; Woodworth-Jefcoats et al., 2019; [[#Ogier--2020|Ogier et al., 2020]] ). Specifically, overfishing is the most critical non-climatic driver affecting the sustainability of fisheries, and therefore improving management could help rebuild fish stocks, reduce ecosystem impacts and increase the adaptive capacity of fishing ( ''high confidence'' ); ( [[#Barange--2019|Barange, 2019]] ; [[#Das--2020|Das et al., 2020]] ). Pursuing sustainable fisheries practices under a low-emissions scenario would decrease risk by 63%; in contrast, under the most extreme RCP8.5, both profit and harvest decline relative to today even under the most optimistic assumptions about global fisheries management reforms ( [[#Gaines--2018|Gaines et al., 2018]] ; [[#Sumaila--2019|Sumaila et al., 2019]] ; [[#Free--2020|Free et al., 2020]] ).

One adaptation strategy in the fishing sector is developing the capacity to recognise and respond to new opportunities that might arise from climate change by establishing a policy and planning setting that augments the fishers’ flexibility to change target species of fisheries or even engage in different productive activities. A key element would be the design and implementation of management schemes that consider flexible permits, sharing quotas, rethinking boundaries and reference points in response to system changes ( [[#Brander--2018|Brander et al., 2018]] ; Cross-Chapter Box MOVING PLATE this chapter). Large-scale distribution and productivity changes of commercial fish species will demand the ability to implement cooperative fishing strategies ( [[#Cisneros-Montemayor--2020|Cisneros-Montemayor et al., 2020]] ; [[#Østhagen--2020|Østhagen et al., 2020]] ), and adjust multi-lateral treaties and other legal instruments used for managing shared transboundary ecosystems ( [[#Butler--2019|Butler et al., 2019]] ; Cross-Chapter Box MOVING PLATE this chapter).

There is ''high confidence'' that making climate change and adaptive capacity a mainstream consideration in global, regional, environmental and fisheries governance structures can improve the response capacity to ocean change ( [[#Gaines--2018|Gaines et al., 2018]] ; [[#Bindoff--2019|Bindoff et al., 2019]] ; [[#Holsman--2020|Holsman et al., 2020]] ; [[#Ojea--2020|Ojea et al., 2020]] ). For example, spatial management that includes strategies such as Territorial Use Rights for Fishing (TURFs), locally managed marine areas (LMMAs) and customary tenure is an approach that has climate change adaptation potential in small-scale fisheries but will require adjustments in governing and managing institutions that allow them to be more dynamic and flexible ( [[#Le%20Cornu--2018|Le Cornu et al., 2018]] ). In regions where some of these measures have already been tested, institutional, legal, financial and logistical barriers to successful adaptation have been encountered, such as market failures stemming from uncertainty around new or emerging species, or policy barriers derived from the fact that the creation of scientific information needed to change regulations is likely slower than the pace of changes in stocks ( [[#Peck--2018|Peck and Pinnegar, 2018]] ).

Adaptation capacity is limited by the financial capacity of some countries ( [[#Bindoff--2019|Bindoff et al., 2019]] ). For example, in West African fisheries, adaptation costs associated with replacing the loss of coastal ecosystems and productivity is estimated to require 5–10% of countries’ GDP ( [[#Zougmoré--2016|Zougmoré et al., 2016]] ). For Pacific Islands and Coastal Territories, fisheries adaptation will require significant investment from local governments and the private sector ( [[#Rosegrant--2016|Rosegrant et al., 2016]] ), and reducing dependence on or finding alternatives to vulnerable marine resources ( [[#Johnson--2020|Johnson et al., 2020]] ; [[#Mabe--2020|Mabe and Asase, 2020]] ).

Adaptive capacity is strongly associated with social capital (i.e., the networks, shared norms, values and understandings that facilitate cooperation within or among groups) ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Stoeckl--2017|Stoeckl et al., 2017]] ; [[#D’agata--2020|D’agata et al., 2020]] ) and depends on to what extent stakeholders are aware of climate change and their perception of risk ( [[#Ankrah--2018|Ankrah, 2018]] ; [[#Martins--2018|Martins and Gasalla, 2018]] ; [[#Chen--2020|Chen, 2020]] ). Improving information flows allows for a more efficient co-management implementation ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Vasconcelos--2020|Vasconcelos et al., 2020]] ). Utilisation of local and Indigenous knowledge has the potential to facilitate adaptation ( [[#Bindoff--2019|Bindoff et al., 2019]] ), not only because it represents actual experiences and autonomous adaptations, but also because it facilitates reaching shared understanding among stakeholders and adoption of solutions. Challenges to hybridising local ecological knowledge and scientific knowledge include differences in stakeholder or governance perceptions about the validity of each knowledge set and issues of expertise and trust (Harrison et al., 2018). Engaging Indigenous Peoples and local communities as partners across climate research ensures this knowledge is utilised, enhancing the usefulness of assessments ( [[#Bindoff--2019|Bindoff et al., 2019]] ) and facilitating the co-construction and implementation of sustainable solutions ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Braga--2020|Braga et al., 2020]] ; [[#Bulengela--2020|Bulengela et al., 2020]] ). Building climate resilience in the fishing sector also involves recognising gender and other social inequities ( [[#Call--2019|Call and Sellers, 2019]] ), and ensuring that all stakeholders are equally involved in the adaptation plans, including their design and the capacity-building training programmes.

There is ''high confidence'' that, for the freshwater fisheries systems, the most immediate adaptation option is the effective linkage of fisheries management to the adaptation plans of other sectors, especially water management (hydropower, irrigation and the commitment to maintaining environmental flows) ( [[#Harrod--2018a|Harrod et al., 2018a]] ; [[#Kao--2020|Kao et al., 2020]] ). In some regions, organisations are already addressing this issue; for example, The Office of Water (OW) in the USA is aimed at ensuring that drinking water is safe while ecosystem is conserved to provide healthy habitat for fish, plants and wildlife; however, success strongly depends on the possibility of integrating the jurisdictional framework of different agencies ( [[#Poesch--2016|Poesch et al., 2016]] ), the implementation of effective monitoring programmes ( [[#Paukert--2016|Paukert et al., 2016]] ) and finding ways to incentivise the early restoration of degraded systems ( [[#Ranjan--2020|Ranjan, 2020]] ).

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'''Cross-Chapter Box: MOVING PLATE: Sourcing Food When Species Distributions Change'''
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Authors: H. Gurney-Smith (Canada/UK), W. Cheung (Canada), S. Lluch Cota (Mexico), E. Ojea (Spain), C. Parmesan (France/UK/USA), J. Pinnegar (UK) P. Thornton (Kenya/UK), M-F. Racault (UK/France), G. Pecl (Australia), E.A. Nyboer (Canada), K. Holsman (USA), K. Miller (USA), J. Birkmann (Germany), G. Nelson (USA) and C. Möllmann (Germany)

This Cross-Chapter Box, the ‘moving plate’, addresses climate-induced shifts and domesticated production suitability of food species consumed by people. Marine, freshwater and terrestrial systems are already experiencing species shifts in response to climate change ( ''very high confidence'' ) (see also Sections 2.4.2.1. and 3.4.3., Figure MOVING PLATE.1 this chapter), with subsequent impacts on food provisioning services, pests and diseases ( ''high confidence'' ) (see Box 5.8 and Cross-Chapter Box ILLNESS in Chapter 2). This Box highlights food insecurity and malnutrition of vulnerable peoples under climate change for both wild and domesticated aquatic and terrestrial species, and discusses challenges for adaptation and the roles that management (transboundary and ecosystem-based) can play to enable food security, reduce conflicts and prevent resource over-extraction.

Range contractions, shifts or extirpations are projected for terrestrial and aquatic species under warming, with greater warming leading to larger shifts and losses, where mitigation would therefore benefit climate refugia and reduce projected biodiversity declines ( [[#Smith--2018|Smith et al., 2018]] ; [[#Warren--2018|Warren et al., 2018]] ). Marine species are moving poleward faster than terrestrial and freshwater species, despite faster warming on land ( [[#Pecl--2017|Pecl et al., 2017]] ; [[#Lenoir--2019|Lenoir et al., 2019]] ; [[#Woolway--2020|Woolway and Maberly, 2020]] ), leading to new or exacerbated socioeconomic conflicts within and between countries (see Figure MOVING PLATE.1 this chapter, see Sections 13.5.2.2., 15.3.4.4., FAQ 15.3., [[#Mendenhall--2020|Mendenhall et al., 2020]] ). There is large variation in the magnitude and pattern of species shifts, even among similar species within a region, leading to changes in communities in a given region ( [[#Brown--2016|Brown et al., 2016]] ; [[#Pecl--2017|Pecl et al., 2017]] ). The number of extreme heat stress days are projected to increase for domesticated species like cattle (see Figure MOVING PLATE.1 this chapter), leading to shifts in suitable habitat for raising livestock in the open with associated impacts in animal productivity and the costs of adapting in Africa, Asia, and Central and South America ( [[#Thornton--2021|Thornton et al., 2021]] ).

Nutritional dependency, cultural importance, livelihood, or economic reliance on shifting species will increase impacts of climate change, especially for small-scale fishers (marine and freshwater), farmers, women and communities highly dependent on local sources of food and nutrition ( ''high confidence'' ) (see Figures MOVING PLATE.1 and MOVING PLATE.3 this chapter, Sections 3.5.3., 8.2.1.2. and 15.3.4.4, [[#McIntyre--2016|McIntyre et al., 2016]] ; [[#Blasiak--2017|Blasiak et al., 2017]] ; [[#Kifani--2018|Kifani et al., 2018]] ; [[#Bindoff--2019|Bindoff et al., 2019]] ; [[#Atindana--2020|Atindana et al., 2020]] ; [[#Hasselberg--2020|Hasselberg et al., 2020]] ; [[#Farmery--2021|Farmery et al., 2021]] ). Micronutrient concentrations from marine fisheries vary with species, providing higher concentrations of calcium, iron and zinc in tropical regions and higher concentrations of omega-3 fatty acids in polar regions ( [[#Hicks--2019|Hicks et al., 2019]] ). While consumption of smaller species rich in micronutrients may provide significant benefits against deficiencies in Asia and Africa, local dietary changes in fish consumption may be linked to food preferences, fish availability due to international trade or illegal fishing and competing usage of fish (see Figure MOVING PLATE.3 this chapter, [[#Hicks--2019|Hicks et al., 2019]] ; [[#Sumaila--2020|Sumaila et al., 2020]] ; [[#Vianna--2020|Vianna et al., 2020]] ). Industrial fleets are likely to switch target species ( [[#Belhabib--2016|Belhabib et al., 2016]] ) and inhibit small-scale fishers via illegal, unreported or unregulated fishing in EEZs ( [[#Belhabib--2019|Belhabib et al., 2019]] ; [[#Belhabib--2020|Belhabib et al., 2020]] ). Extreme events can exacerbate issues, as fisheries are frequently increasingly exploited as a coping mechanism under times of crisis, increasing illegal fishing activities and conflict among maritime users ( [[#Pomeroy--2016|Pomeroy et al., 2016]] ; [[#Mazaris--2018|Mazaris and Germond, 2018]] ). Spatial conflicts between artisanal and commercial foreign fishing fleets are already occurring in Ghana ( [[#Penney--2017|Penney et al., 2017]] ), and from climate-induced tropical tuna shifts in the Western and Central Pacific Ocean Islands (see [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-15#15.3.4.4|Section 15.3.4.4]] ., ( [[#Bell--2018|Bell et al., 2018]] a)). Properly managed small-scale fisheries can reduce poverty and improve localised food security and nutrition in low-income countries but will likely require restriction in the number of fishers, boat size or fishing days ( [[#Purcell--2015|Purcell and Pomeroy, 2015]] ; [[#Hicks--2019|Hicks et al., 2019]] ).

Shifting species have negative implications for the equitable distribution of food provisioning services, increasing the complexity of resolving sovereignty claims and climate justice ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Allison--2015|Allison and Bassett, 2015]] ; [[#Ayers--2018|Ayers et al., 2018]] ; Baudron et al.; [[#Ojea--2020|Ojea et al., 2020]] ; [[#Palacios-Abrantes--2020|Palacios-Abrantes et al., 2020]] ). Higher-latitude countries generally have higher GHG emissions and will benefit from poleward-migrating resources from tropical poorer and lower-emitting GHG countries ( [[#Free--2020|Free et al., 2020]] ). In this context, climate justice supporting fishing arrangements could offset socioeconomic impacts from exiting species ( [[#Mills--2018|Mills, 2018]] ; [[#Lam--2020|Lam et al., 2020]] ) and have negative implications particularly for small-scale operators ( [[#Farmery--2021|Farmery et al., 2021]] ), However, considerations of climate justice have not been used by Regional Fisheries Management Organizations (RFMOs) allocation shares to date ( [[#Engler--2020|Engler, 2020]] ). Species shifting from one historical jurisdiction to another may result in an incentivised depletion of the resource by the country the stock is shifting away from; reforming management to allocate resource sharing of quotas and permits or stock-unrelated side payments in bilateral or multilateral cooperative agreements may compensate or prevent loss ( [[#Diekert--2017|Diekert and Nieminen, 2017]] ; [[#Free--2020|Free et al., 2020]] ; [[#Ojea--2020|Ojea et al., 2020]] ; [[#Østhagen--2020|Østhagen et al., 2020]] ; Cross-Chapter Paper Polar 6.2.).

Strong governance, ecosystem-based and transboundary management are considered fundamental to ameliorate the impacts of climate change ( ''high confidence'' ) but may be limited in effectiveness by the magnitude of change projected under low or no mitigation scenarios (see Sections 2.6.2., 14.4.2.2. and 15.3.4.4., [[#Harrod--2018c|Harrod et al., 2018c]] ; [[#Pinsky--2018|Pinsky et al., 2018]] ; [[#Holsman--2020|Holsman et al., 2020]] ; [[#Ojea--2020|Ojea et al., 2020]] ). Flexible and rapid policy reform and management adaptation will help to meet sustainability targets ( [[#Nguyen--2016|Nguyen et al., 2016]] ; [[#Pentz--2020|Pentz and Klenk, 2020]] ), and may only be available for countries with the scientific, technical and institutional capacity to implement these ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Peck--2018|Peck and Pinnegar, 2018]] ; Figures MOVING PLATE.2 and 3 this chapter). Other adaptation options include ‘follow the food’ thereby migrating further ( [[#Belhabib--2016|Belhabib et al., 2016]] ), provision of alternative livelihoods ( [[#Thiault--2019|Thiault et al., 2019]] ; Cross-Chapter Box MIGRATE in Chapter 7, [[#Free--2020|Free et al., 2020]] ), increasing ecosystem resilience by rebuilding coastal mangroves ( [[#Tanner--2014|Tanner et al., 2014]] ; and Box 1.3) and riparian areas of freshwater ecosystems ( [[#Mantyka-Pringle--2016|Mantyka-Pringle et al., 2016]] ) and autonomous adaptations, such as harvesting gear modifications to access new target species ( [[#Harrod--2018c|Harrod et al., 2018c]] ; [[#Kifani--2018|Kifani et al., 2018]] ), practice change, and early-warning systems (see [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-11#11.3.2.3|Section 11.3.2.3]] ; [[#Pecl--2019|Pecl et al., 2019]] ; [[#Melbourne-Thomas--2021|Melbourne-Thomas et al., 2021]] ). Adaptive capacity will change with country, region, scale (commercial, recreational, Indigenous) of fishery, jurisdiction, and resource dependence (see Figure MOVING PLATE.2 this chapter for adaptation options for marine, freshwater and terrestrial systems). While shifting fishing fleets or herding may be an adaptation option to follow resources, limits to feasibility include institutional, legal, financial and logistical barriers such as costs of sourcing food and operational economic viability ( [[#Belhabib--2016|Belhabib et al., 2016]] ); this could potentially lead to maladaptation through increased GHG emissions from fuel usage and cultural displacement from traditional fishing and herding lands. Overall, decreases in GHG emissions under future scenarios would reduce increases in global temperatures and limit species shifts, thereby lowering the likelihood of conflicts and food insecurity ( ''high confidence'' ).

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Cross-Chapter Box: MOVING PLATE

'''Coastal Regions of the Gulf of Guinea: Ghanian Fisheries'''
Marine fisheries in Ghana are dominated by artisanal fishers with overfished stocks, high nutritional fish dependency, high illegal fishing, low governance capacity (−0.21 2018, ( [[#World%20Bank--2019|World Bank, 2019]] )) and low climate awareness in regional fisheries management (Figure MOVING PLATE.3 this chapter; see Chapter 9; [[#Nunoo--2014|Nunoo et al., 2014]] ; [[#Belhabib--2015|Belhabib et al., 2015]] ; [[#Belhabib--2016|Belhabib et al., 2016]] ; [[#Kifani--2018|Kifani et al., 2018]] ; [[#Belhabib--2019|Belhabib et al., 2019]] ). Artisanal fishing plays a pivotal role in reducing poverty and food insecurity, and the impacts of climate change will risk developing poverty traps (see [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-8#8.4.5.6|Section 8.4.5.6]] ., ( [[#Kifani--2018|Kifani et al., 2018]] )). Climate change induced species redistribution is a large risk to Ghanian fisheries, with projections of over 20 commercial fish species exiting the region with no new species entering under RCP4.5 by 2100 ( [[#Oremus--2020|Oremus et al., 2020]] ), and has already seen increases in warmer-water species with declining stocks. Adaptation options being applied are extending fishing ranges, increasing fishing effort (and cost) to access declining fish (with government fuel incentives) ( [[#Kifani--2018|Kifani et al., 2018]] ; [[#Muringai--2021|Muringai et al., 2021]] ), developing aquaculture for alternative livelihoods, implementing fleet monitoring to reduce illegal fishing, and developing a robust Fisheries Information and Management System that accounts for environmental and climate drivers ( [[#Johnson--2014|Johnson et al., 2014]] ; [[#FAO--2016|FAO, 2016]] ; [[#Kassi--2018|Kassi et al., 2018]] ). However, fisheries remain insufficiently regulated, there is a lack of a skilled workforce, and there is low access to credit; collectively, these factors limit options for artisanal fishers to find alternative sustainable employment ( [[#FAO--2016|FAO, 2016]] ).

'''Shifting Distributions of Freshwater Fishery Resources: Knowledge Gaps'''
Freshwater fisheries provide the primary source of animal protein and essential micronutrients for an estimated 200 million people globally and are especially important in tropical developing nations (see [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-9#9.8|Section 9.8]] , [[#Lynch--2017|Lynch et al., 2017]] ; [[#Funge-Smith--2019|Funge-Smith and Bennett, 2019]] .). There is evidence that freshwater fishes have undergone climate-induced distribution shifts ( [[#Comte--2015|Comte and Grenouillet, 2015]] ; see [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-9#9.8.5.1|Section 9.8.5.1]] .), and further shifts are projected as water temperatures rise and hydrological regimes change, with the largest effects predicted for equatorial, subtropical and semi-arid regions ( [[#Barbarossa--2021|Barbarossa et al., 2021]] ). Currently, the effects of distribution shifts on local fishery catch potential, food security and/or nutrition have not been quantified for any major inland fishery, representing a key knowledge gap for anticipating future adaptation needs for freshwater fishing societies. However, studies on fishers’ perceptions of climate-induced changes in fishery catch rates have revealed that using local knowledge to adjust management practices (see [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-12|Chapter 12]] Central and South America this volume; [[#Oviedo--2016|Oviedo et al., 2016]] ) and shifting gears, fishing grounds and target species (see [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-9#9.8.5.3|Section 9.8.5.3]] .; [[#Musinguzi--2016|Musinguzi et al., 2016]] ) can be effective adaptation options.

'''Terrestrial Species Shifts'''
There is ''robust evidence'' of shifts that terrestrial species have shifted poleward in high latitudes, with general declines of sea-ice dependent as well as some extreme-polar-adapted species ( ''high confidence'' ) (Arctic and Siberian Tundra, see [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-2#2.4.2.2|Section 2.4.2.2]] ., Cross-Chapter Paper 6), with often deleterious effects on the food security and traditional knowledge systems of Indigenous societies ( [[#Horstkotte--2017|Horstkotte et al., 2017]] ; [[#Pecl--2017|Pecl et al., 2017]] ; [[#Mallory--2018|Mallory and Boyce, 2018]] ; [[#Forbes--2020|Forbes et al., 2020]] ). Recent decades have seen declines in Arctic reindeer and caribou (see [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-2#2.5.1|Section 2.5.1]] ., Cross-Chapter Paper 6), and adaptation responses include utilisation of Indigenous knowledge with scientific sampling to maintain traditional management practices ( [[#Pecl--2017|Pecl et al., 2017]] ; Barber et al.; [[#Forbes--2020|Forbes et al., 2020]] ). Preserving herder livelihoods will necessitate novel solutions (supplementary feeding, seasonal movements), where governance, ecological and socioeconomic trade-offs will be balanced at the local level ( [[#Horstkotte--2017|Horstkotte et al., 2017]] ; [[#Pecl--2017|Pecl et al., 2017]] ; [[#Mallory--2018|Mallory and Boyce, 2018]] ; [[#Forbes--2020|Forbes et al., 2020]] ). Wild meat consumption plays a critical, though not well understood, role in the diets and food security of several hundred million people ( ''medium evidence'' ), for example in lower latitudes such as Central Africa and the Amazon basin ( [[#Bharucha--2010|Bharucha and Pretty, 2010]] ; [[#Godfray--2010|Godfray et al., 2010]] ; [[#Nasi--2011|Nasi et al., 2011]] ; [[#Friant--2020|Friant et al., 2020]] ). Although illegal in many countries, wild meat hunting occurs either in places where there is no or limited domesticated livestock production, or in places where shock events such as droughts and floods threaten food supply, forcing increased reliance on wild foods including bush meat ( [[#Mosberg--2015|Mosberg and Eriksen, 2015]] ; [[#Bodmer--2018|Bodmer et al., 2018]] ). Appropriate management of wild meat for reliant peoples under projected climate change will necessitate incorporating social justice elements into conservation and public health strategies (see Cross-Chapter Box ILLNESS in Chapter 2, Cross-Chapter Box COVID in Chapter 7, [[#Friant--2020|Friant et al., 2020]] ; [[#Ingram--2020|Ingram, 2020]] ; [[#Pelling--2021|Pelling et al., 2021]] ).

[[File:ecf8e3d8d810a4e78b5cafcfd6f40a67 IPCC_AR6_WGII_Figure_5_Cross-Chapter_Box_MOVING_PLATE_1.png]]

'''Figure Cross-Chapter Box MOVING PLATE.1 |''' '''Global vulnerabilities to current and projected climate change for living marine resources and cattle.'''

'''(a)''' Ocean areas are delineated into FAO (Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations) regions. Ocean sensitivity is calculated from aggregated sensitivities from [[#Blasiak--2017|Blasiak et al. (2017)]] S1 country data based on number of fishers, fisheries exports, proportions of economically active population working as fishers, total fisheries landings and nutritional dependence, which was subsequently re-analysed for each FAO region depicted here. Arrows denote projected average commercial and artisanal fishing resource shifts in location under RCP2.6 and under RCP8.5 (dark-blue and red arrows, respectively) scenarios by 2100. Text boxes highlight examples of vulnerabilities ( [[#Bell--2018|Bell et al., 2018]] a), conflicts ( [[#Miller--2013|Miller et al., 2013]] ; [[#Blasiak--2017|Blasiak et al., 2017]] ; [[#Østhagen--2020|Østhagen et al., 2020]] ) or opportunities for marine resource usage ( [[#Robinson--2015|Robinson et al., 2015]] ; Stuart- [[#Smith--2018|Smith et al., 2018]] ; [[#Meredith--2019|Meredith et al., 2019]] ).

'''(b)''' Projected changes in the number of extreme heat stress days for cattle from early (1991–2010) to end of century (2081–2100) under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, shown as arrows rooted in the most affected area in each IPCC sub-region pointing to the nearest area of reduced or no extreme heat stress. Arrows are shown only for sub-regions where &gt;1 million additional animals are affected. Areas in green are those with &gt;5000 animals per 0.5° grid cell in the eary 21st century ( [[#Thornton--2021|Thornton et al., 2021]] ).

[[File:166a924696e0e5aae00ce36103c8d6cc IPCC_AR6_WGII_Figure_5_Cross-Chapter_Box_MOVING_PLATE_2.png]]

'''Figure Cross-Chapter Box MOVING PLATE.2 |''' '''Common adaptation options, limitations and potential for adaptation and maladaptation in aquatic and terrestrial species with climate-induced movement of food species and reliant peoples.'''

[[File:be0305f39f78e2341f0773992bbec52b IPCC_AR6_WGII_Figure_5_Cross-Chapter_Box_MOVING_PLATE_3.png]]

'''Figure Cross-Chapter Box MOVING PLATE.3 |''' '''Global documented fisheries adaptive capacity to climate change and regional seafood micronutrient deficiency risk.''' Ocean areas are delineated into FAO (Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations) regions. Fisheries management adaptive capacity is a function of: averaged GDP World Development Indicators for 2018 ( [[#World%20Bank--2020|World Bank, 2020]] ); climate awareness assessments of 30 of the FAO recognised most recent RFMOs with direct fisheries linkages (see Supplementary Material SM5.5); governance effectiveness index based on six aggregate indicators (voice and accountability, political stability and absence of violence/terrorism, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, control of corruption) from 2018 World Governance Indicator ( [[#World%20Bank--2019|World Bank, 2019]] ) data; and heterogeneity of countries within each FAO zone (highly heterogeneous regions are less likely to establish sustainable and efficient fisheries management for the entire FAO zone). Land area represents the percentage regional averaged seafood micronutrient deficiency risk of calcium, iron, zinc and vitamin A from 2011 data ( [[#Beal--2017|Beal et al., 2017]] ).

In terrestrial, marine and freshwater systems, human populations already impacted by poverty and hunger experience greater risk under climate change. Future food security will depend on access to other sustainable sources either via transnational agreements or resource/livelihood diversification. Sudden shocks across food production systems ( [[#Cottrell--2019|Cottrell et al., 2019]] ) can lead to increases in fisheries harvest and wild meat consumption, and following food species may result in community relocations or disruption and loss of access to historical places of attachment ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Pecl--2017|Pecl et al., 2017]] ; [[#Lenoir--2019|Lenoir et al., 2019]] ; [[#Meredith--2019|Meredith et al., 2019]] ; [[#Melbourne-Thomas--2021|Melbourne-Thomas et al., 2021]] ; see Cross-Chapter Box MIGRATE in Chapter 7). Ecosystem-based management approaches exist for terrestrial, marine and freshwater systems, but have proved successful only with early engagement of local small-scale, subsistence fishers/harvesters, utilising Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge and needs, in addition to those of larger-scale operators ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Huntington--2015|Huntington et al., 2015]] ; [[#McGrath--2015|McGrath and Costello, 2015]] ; [[#Huq--2016|Huq and Stubbings, 2016]] ; [[#Huq--2017|Huq et al., 2017]] ; [[#Raymond-Yakoubian--2017|Raymond-Yakoubian et al., 2017]] ; [[#Nalau--2018|Nalau et al., 2018]] ; [[#Raymond-Yakoubian--2018|Raymond-Yakoubian and Daniel, 2018]] ; [[#Pecl--2019|Pecl et al., 2019]] ; [[#Planque--2019|Planque et al., 2019]] ). Currently, there are large regional differences in climate literacy in RFMOs ( [[#Sumby--2021|Sumby et al., 2021]] ) which, when combined with low governance and GDP per capita, will limit adaptation capacity and increase vulnerabilities, particularly for tropical and subtropical regions already at increased risk due to poleward species migrations (see Figure MOVING PLATE.3 this chapter). Trade will be an alternative to compensate for the moving plate but has specific risks that can amplify inequities and maladaptation ( [[#Asche--2015|Asche et al., 2015]] ; [[#Vianna--2020|Vianna et al., 2020]] ).

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Cross-Chapter Box: MOVING PLATE

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