Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-7 (section)

==== 7.3.1.10 Projected Impacts on Harmful Algal Blooms, Mycotoxins, Aflatoxins and Chemical Contaminants ====

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''Harmful algal blooms are projected to increase globally, thus increasing the risk of seafood contamination with marine toxins'' ( ''high confidence'' ) ''(European Food Safety Authority et al., 2020; [[#Gobler--2017|Gobler et al., 2017]] ; [[#Barange--2018|Barange et al., 2018]] ; [[#IPCC--2019b|IPCC, 2019b]] ; [[#Wells--2020|Wells et al., 2020]] )'' . Climate change impacts on oceans could generate increased risks of ciguatera poisoning in some regions ''(medium confidence).'' Studies suggest that rising sea surface temperatures could increase rates of ciguatera poisoning in Spain ( [[#Botana--2016|Botana, 2016]] ) and other parts of Europe (European Food Safety Authority et al., 2020).

''Mycotoxins and aflatoxins may become more prevalent due to climate change'' ( ''medium agreement, low evidence'' ) ''.'' Models of aflatoxin occurrence in maize under climate change scenarios of +2°C and +5°C in Europe over the next 100 years project that aflatoxin B1 may become a major food safety issue in maize, especially in Eastern Europe, the Balkan Peninsula and the Mediterranean regions (Battilani, 2016). The occurrence of toxin-producing fungal phytopathogens has the potential to increase and expand from tropical and subtropical regions into regions where such contamination does not currently occur (Battilani, 2016).

''Climate change may alter regional and local exposures to anthropogenic chemical contaminants'' ( ''medium agreement, low evidence'' ) ''.'' Changes in future occurrences of wildfires could lead to a 14% increase in global emissions of mercury by 2050, depending on the scenarios used ( [[#Kumar--2018a|Kumar et al., 2018a]] ). Mercury exposure via consumption of fish may be affected by warming waters. Warming trends in the Gulf of Maine could increase the methyl mercury levels in resident tuna by 30% between 2015 and 2030 (Schartup et al., 2019). An observed annual 3.5% increase in mercury levels was attributed to fish having higher metabolism in warmer waters, leading them to consume more prey. The combined impacts of climate change and the presence of arsenic in paddy fields are projected to potentially double the toxic heavy metal content of rice in some regions, potentially leading to a 39% reduction in overall production by 2100 under some models ( [[#Muehe--2019|Muehe et al., 2019]] ).

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