Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-9 (section)

===== 9.5.6.2.2 Projections =====

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Mean annual rainfall in the summer rainfall region is projected to decrease by 10–20%, accompanied by an increase in the number of consecutive dry days during the rainy season under RCP8.5 ( [[#Kusangaya--2014|Kusangaya et al., 2014]] ; [[#Engelbrecht--2015|Engelbrecht et al., 2015]] ; [[#Lazenby--2018|Lazenby et al., 2018]] ; [[#Maúre--2018|Maúre et al., 2018]] ; [[#Spinoni--2019|Spinoni et al., 2019]] ). The western parts of the region are projected to become drier, with increasing drought frequency, intensity and duration ''likely'' under RCP8.5 ( ''high confidence'' ) (Figures 9.16c, e; 9.14; [[#Engelbrecht--2015|Engelbrecht et al., 2015]] ; [[#Liu--2018b|Liu et al., 2018b]] ; 2018c; [[#Ukkola--2020|Ukkola et al., 2020]] ), including multi-year droughts ( [[#Zhao--2016|Zhao and Dai, 2016]] ; [[#Dosio--2017|Dosio, 2017]] ).

Dryness in the summer rainfall region is expected to increase at 1.5°C and higher levels of global warming ( [[#Hoegh-Guldberg--2018|Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018]] ) and together with higher temperatures will enhance evaporation from the region’s mega-dams and reduce soil-moisture content ( [[#9.7.1|Section 9.7.1]] ; [[#Engelbrecht--2015|Engelbrecht et al., 2015]] ). Increases in drought frequency and duration are projected over large parts of southern Africa at GWL 1.5°C ( [[#Liu--2018b|Liu et al., 2018b]] ; 2018c; [[#Seneviratne--2021|Seneviratne et al., 2021]] ) and unprecedented extreme droughts (compared to the 1981–2010 period) emerge at GWL 2°C ( [[#Spinoni--2021|Spinoni et al., 2021]] ). Meteorological drought duration is projected to increase from approximately 2 months during 1950–2014 to approximately 4 months in the mid-to-late-21st century future under RCP8.5 ( [[#Ukkola--2020|Ukkola et al., 2020]] ). Heavy precipitation in the southwestern region is projected to decrease ( [[#Donat--2019|Donat et al., 2019]] ) and increase in the eastern parts of southern Africa at all warming levels ( [[#Li--2021|Li et al., 2021]] ; [[#Seneviratne--2021|Seneviratne et al., 2021]] ).

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