Editing IPCC:AR6/WGI/Chapter-Atlas (section)

==== [[#Atlas.5.4.3|Atlas.5.4.3]] Assessment of Model Performance ====

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Performance in simulating rainfall over South East Asia varies among CMIP5 GCMs ( ''high confidence'' ). Only some are capable of reasonably simulating the rainfall seasonal cycle and spatial pattern ( [[#Siew--2013|Siew et al., 2013]] ; [[#Raghavan--2018|Raghavan et al., 2018]] ). Over mainland South East Asia, the performance of CMIP5 GCMs in simulating rainfall during the wet season was superior to that for annual and dry-season precipitation (J. [[#Li--2019|]] [[#Li--2019|Li et al., 2019]] ).

RCMs have been intensively used over the region in recent years in a series of single or multi-model experiments and there is ''medium confidence'' that they reproduce reasonably well seasonal climate patterns of temperature, precipitation and large-scale circulation over the different sub-regions of South East Asia with added values compared to their host GCMs ( [[#Kwan--2014|Kwan et al., 2014]] ; [[#Ngo-Duc--2014|Ngo-Duc et al., 2014]] , 2017; [[#Van%20Khiem--2014|Van Khiem et al., 2014]] ; [[#Juneng--2016|Juneng et al., 2016]] ; [[#Katzfey--2016|Katzfey et al., 2016]] ; [[#Loh--2016|Loh et al., 2016]] ; [[#Raghavan--2016|Raghavan et al., 2016]] ; [[#Cruz--2017|Cruz et al., 2017]] ; [[#Ratna--2017|Ratna et al., 2017]] ; [[#Trinh-Tuan--2018|Trinh-Tuan et al., 2018]] ; [[#Nguyen-Thuy--2021|Nguyen-Thuy et al., 2021]] ). RCM ensemble means tend to outperform the individual models in representing the climatological mean state ( [[#Ngo-Duc--2014|Ngo-Duc et al., 2014]] ; [[#Trinh-Tuan--2018|Trinh-Tuan et al., 2018]] ; [[#Nguyen-Thi--2021|Nguyen-Thi et al., 2021]] ). There is relatively high consistency among the simulations of historical climate over mainland South East Asia compared to those over the Maritime Continent for both seasonal and interannual variability ( [[#Ngo-Duc--2017|Ngo-Duc et al., 2017]] ). The consistency in rainfall simulations was lower than for temperature simulations.

Some RCMs showed a systematic cold bias ( [[#Manomaiphiboon--2013|Manomaiphiboon et al., 2013]] ; [[#Kwan--2014|Kwan et al., 2014]] ; [[#Ngo-Duc--2014|Ngo-Duc et al., 2014]] ; [[#Loh--2016|Loh et al., 2016]] ; [[#Cruz--2017|Cruz and Sasaki, 2017]] ; [[#Cruz--2017|Cruz et al., 2017]] ) that was mainly due to model physics ( [[#Manomaiphiboon--2013|Manomaiphiboon et al., 2013]] ; [[#Kwan--2014|Kwan et al., 2014]] ) and/or the biases in the SST forcing ( [[#Ngo-Duc--2014|Ngo-Duc et al., 2014]] ). A few simulations revealed a warm bias over some areas such as in the Maritime Continent ( [[#Cruz--2017|Cruz et al., 2017]] ) or Vietnam ( [[#Van%20Khiem--2014|Van Khiem et al., 2014]] ). The biases for rainfall in GCMs and RCMs over South East Asia were found to be less systematic with wet or dry biases depending on the sub-regions ( [[#Manomaiphiboon--2013|Manomaiphiboon et al., 2013]] ; [[#Kwan--2014|Kwan et al., 2014]] ; [[#Van%20Khiem--2014|Van Khiem et al., 2014]] ; [[#Juneng--2016|Juneng et al., 2016]] ; Supari et al., 2020; [[#Tangang--2020|Tangang et al., 2020]] ; [[#Nguyen-Thi--2021|Nguyen-Thi et al., 2021]] ), although wet biases were more pronounced in RCMs ( [[#Kwan--2014|Kwan et al., 2014]] ; [[#Van%20Khiem--2014|Van Khiem et al., 2014]] ; [[#Kirono--2015|Kirono et al., 2015]] ; [[#Juneng--2016|Juneng et al., 2016]] ; Supari et al., 2020; [[#Tangang--2020|Tangang et al., 2020]] ). Some RCMs overestimated rainfall interannual variability ( [[#Juneng--2016|Juneng et al., 2016]] ) while some others underestimated it ( [[#Kirono--2015|Kirono et al., 2015]] ). Simulated rainfall amount is sensitive to the choice of convective scheme ( [[#Juneng--2016|Juneng et al., 2016]] ; [[#Ngo-Duc--2017|Ngo-Duc et al., 2017]] ) and the choice of land surface scheme ( [[#Chung--2018|Chung et al., 2018]] ). Rainfall biases in current climate simulations can be greatly reduced if a bias adjustment method such as quantile mapping is applied ( [[#Trinh-Tuan--2018|Trinh-Tuan et al., 2018]] ). The pattern of tropical cyclone numbers in the region were reasonable represented by RCM outputs ( [[#Van%20Khiem--2014|Van Khiem et al., 2014]] ; [[#Kieu-Thi--2016|Kieu-Thi et al., 2016]] ; [[#Herrmann--2020|Herrmann et al., 2020]] ).

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