Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-11 (section)

==== 11.5.1.2 Projected Impacts ====

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Cascading, compounding and aggregate impacts are projected to grow due to a concurrent increase in heatwaves, droughts, fires, storms, floods and sea level ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#CSIRO--2020|CSIRO, 2020]] ; [[#Lawrence--2020b|Lawrence et al., 2020b]] ). Urban wastewater, stormwater and water supply systems are particularly vulnerable in New Zealand ( [[#Paulik--2019a|Paulik et al., 2019a]] ; [[#Hughes--2021|Hughes et al., 2021]] ) to pluvial flooding (Box 11.4) and to sea level rise (SLR) (Box 11.6), with flow-on effects to settlements, insurance and finance sectors, and governments ( [[#Lawrence--2020b|Lawrence et al., 2020b]] ). Furthermore, consecutive heavy rainfall events in late summer and autumn, following drought conditions in low-lying modified wetland areas, have implications for the operation of flood control infrastructure as increased rainfall intensity, land subsidence and sea level rise (SLR) compound and result in the retention of floodwaters ( [[#Pingram--2021|Pingram et al., 2021]] ).

In Australia, the aggregate loss of wealth due to climate-induced reductions in productivity across agriculture, manufacturing and service sectors is projected to exceed AUD$19 billion by 2030, AUD$211 billion by 2050 and AUD$4 trillion by 2100 for RCP8.5 ( [[#Steffen--2019|Steffen et al., 2019]] ) (Table 11.13). Projected impacts also cascade across national boundaries via value chains, markets, movement of humans and other organisms and geopolitics (e.g., migration from near-neighbours as a pathway for adaptation, mobile climate-sensitive diseases and changes in production and trade patterns) ( [[#Lee--2018|Lee et al., 2018]] ; [[#Nalau--2018|Nalau and Handmer, 2018]] ; [[#Schwerdtle--2018|Schwerdtle et al., 2018]] ; [[#Dellink--2019|Dellink et al., 2019]] ). The scale of impacts is projected to challenge the adaptive capacity of sectors, governments and institutions ( [[#Steffen--2019|Steffen et al., 2019]] ), including the insurability of assets and risks to lenders ( [[#Storey--2017|Storey and Noy, 2017]] ).

'''Table 11.13 |''' Economy-wide projected costs (AUD$) of climate change in Australia. (Estimates are not comparable across studies because different methods have been used. Estimates for later in the century are speculative because both impacts and adaptation are uncertain.)

{| class="wikitable"
|-
! Impact

! 2030

! 2050

! 2090

! Reference

|-
| Damage-related loss of property value in Australia

| $571 billion

| $611 billion

| $770 billion

| ( [[#Steffen--2019|Steffen et al., 2019]] )

|-
| Property damage in Australia

|
| $91 billion/year

| $117 billion/year

| ( [[#Steffen--2019|Steffen et al., 2019]] )

|-
| Loss of asset value of road infrastructure (including freeways, main roads and unsealed roads) in Australia at risk of a SLR of 1.1 m by 2100

|
| $46–60 billion

| ( [[#DCCEE--2011|DCCEE, 2011]] )

|-
| Loss of asset value of rail and tramway infrastructure in Australia at risk of a SLR of 1.1 m by 2100

|
| $4.9–6.4 billion

| ( [[#DCCEE--2011|DCCEE, 2011]] )

|-
| Loss of asset value of residential buildings in Australia at risk of a SLR of 1.1 m by 2100 (2008 replacement value)

|
| $51–72 billion

| ( [[#DCCEE--2011|DCCEE, 2011]] )

|-
| Loss of asset value of light industrial buildings (used for warehousing, manufacturing and assembly activities and services) in Australia at risk of a SLR of 1.1 m by 2100

|
| $4.2–6.7 billion

| ( [[#DCCEE--2011|DCCEE, 2011]] )

|-
| Loss of asset value of commercial buildings (used for wholesale, retail, office and transport activities) in Australia at risk of a SLR of 1.1 m by 2100 (2008 replacement value)

|
| $58–81 billion

| ( [[#DCCEE--2011|DCCEE, 2011]] )

|-
| Accumulated loss of wealth due to reduced agricultural productivity and labour productivity

| $19 billion

| $211 billion

| $4.2 trillion

| ( [[#Steffen--2019|Steffen et al., 2019]] )

|-
| Wind damage to dwellings in Cairns, Townsville, Rockhampton and south-east Queensland (assuming a 4% discount rate)

| $3.8 billion

| $9.7 billion

| $20 billion

| ( [[#Stewart--2011|Stewart and Wang, 2011]] )

|-
| Damage to Australian coastal residential buildings due to SLR (A1B scenario, 3.5°C global warming)

|
| $8 billion

| ( [[#Wang--2016|Wang et al., 2016]] )

|}

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