Editing IPCC:AR6/SROCC/Chapter-4 (section)

==== 4.3.3.6 Human Activities ====

<div id="section-4-3-3-6human-activities-block-1"></div>

<span id="coastal-agriculture"></span>
===== 4.3.3.6.1 Coastal agriculture =====

SLR will affect agriculture mainly through land submergence, soil and fresh groundwater resources salinisation, and land loss due to permanent coastal erosion, with consequences on production, livelihood diversification and food security, especially in heavily coastal agriculture-dependent countries such as Bangladesh (Khanom, 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r13|13]]</sup> 41). Recent literature confirms that salinisation is already a major problem for traditional agriculture in deltas (Wong et al., 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r1342|1342]]</sup> ; Khai et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r1343|1343]]</sup> ) and low-lying island nations where some edible cultivated plants such as taro patches are threatened (Nunn et al., 2017b <sup>[[#fn:r1344|1344]]</sup> ). Taking the case of rice cultivation, recent works emphasise the prevailing role of combined surface elevation and soil salinity, such as in the Mekong delta (Vietnam; Smajgl et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1345|1345]]</sup> ) and in the Ebro delta (Spain; Genua-Olmedo et al., 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r1346|1346]]</sup> ), estimating for the latter a decrease in the rice production index from 61.2% in 2010 to 33.8% by 2100 in a 1.8 m SLR scenario. For seven wetland species occurring in coastal freshwater marshes in central Veracruz on the Gulf of Mexico, an increase in salinity was shown to affect the germination process under wetland salt intrusion (Sánchez-García et al., 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r1347|1347]]</sup> ). In coastal Bangladesh, oilseed, sugarcane and jute cultivation was reported to be already discontinued due to challenges to cope with current salinity levels (Khanom, 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r1348|1348]]</sup> ), and salinity is projected to have an unambiguously negative influence on all dry-season crops over the next 15–45 years (especially in the southwest; Clarke et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r1349|1349]]</sup> ; Kabir et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r1350|1350]]</sup> ). Salinity intrusion and salinisation can trigger land use changes towards brackish or saline aquaculture such as shrimp or rice-shrimp systems with impacts on environment, livelihoods and income stability (Renaud et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1351|1351]]</sup> ). However, increasing salinity is only one of the land use change drivers along with, for example, policy changes and market prices at the household level (Renaud et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1352|1352]]</sup> ).

<div id="section-4-3-3-6human-activities-block-2"></div>

<span id="coastal-tourism-and-recreation"></span>
===== 4.3.3.6.2 Coastal tourism and recreation =====

SLR may significantly affect tourism and recreation through impacts on landscapes (e.g., beaches), cultural features (e.g., Marzeion and Levermann, 2014; Fang et al., 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r1353|1353]]</sup> ), and critical transportation infrastructures such as harbours and airports (Monioudi et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r1354|1354]]</sup> ). Coastal areas’ future tourism and recreation attractiveness will however also depend on changes in air temperature, seasonality and sea surface temperature (including induced effects such as invasive species, e.g., jellyfishes, and disease spreading; Burge et al., 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r1355|1355]]</sup> ; Weatherdon et al., 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r1356|1356]]</sup> ; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r1357|1357]]</sup> ; Section 5.4.2). Future changes in climatic conditions in tourists’ areas of origin will also play a role in reshaping tourism flows (Bujosa and Rosselló, 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1358|1358]]</sup> ; Amelung and Nicholls, 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r1359|1359]]</sup> ), in addition to mitigation policies on air transportation, non-climatic features (e.g., accommodation and travel prices) and tourists’ and tourism developers’ perceptions of climate-related changes (Shakeela and Becken, 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1360|1360]]</sup> ). Since AR5, forecasting the consequences of climate change effects on global-to-local tourism flows has remained challenging (Rosselló-Nadal, 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r1361|1361]]</sup> ; Wong et al., 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r1362|1362]]</sup> ; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r1363|1363]]</sup> ). There are also concerns about the effect of SLR on tourism facilities, for example hotels in Ghana (Sagoe-Addy and Addo, 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1364|1364]]</sup> ), in a context where tourism infrastructure often contributes to the degradation of natural buffering environments through, for example, coastal squeeze (e.g., Section 4.3.2.4) and human-driven coastal erosion. Again, forecasting is constrained by the lack of scientific studies on tourism stakeholders’ long-term strategies and adaptive capacity (Hoogendoorn and Fitchett, 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r1365|1365]]</sup> ).

<div id="section-4-3-3-6human-activities-block-3"></div>

<span id="coastal-fisheries-and-aquaculture"></span>
===== 4.3.3.6.3 Coastal fisheries and aquaculture =====

Recent studies support the AR5 conclusion that ocean warming and acidification are considered more influential drivers of change in fisheries and aquaculture than SLR (Larsen et al., 2014; Nurse et al., 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r1366|1366]]</sup> ; Wong et al., 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r1367|1367]]</sup> ). The negative effects of SLR on fisheries and aquaculture are indirect, through adverse impacts on habitats (e.g., coral reef degradation, reduced water quality in deltas and estuarine environments, soil salinisation, etc.), as well as on facilities (e.g., damage to small and large harbours). This makes future projections on SLR implications for coastal and marine fisheries and aquaculture an understudied field of research. Conclusions only state that future impacts will be highly context-specific due to local manifestations of SLR and local fishery-dependent communities’ ability to adapt to alterations in fish and aquaculture conditions and productivity (Hollowed et al., 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1368|1368]]</sup> ; Weatherdon et al., 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r1369|1369]]</sup> ). Salinity intrusion also contributes to conversion of land or freshwater ponds to brackish or saline aquaculture in many low-lying coastal areas of Southeast Asia such as in the Mekong Delta in Vietnam (Renaud et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1370|1370]]</sup> ).

<div id="section-4-3-3-6human-activities-block-4"></div>

<span id="social-values"></span>
===== 4.3.3.6.4 Social values =====

Social values refer to what people consider of critical importance about the places in which they live, and range from material to immaterial things (assets, beliefs, etc.; Hurlimann et al., 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r1371|1371]]</sup> ; Rouse et al., 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r1372|1372]]</sup> ). Consideration of social values offers an opportunity to address a wider perspective on impacts on human systems, for example, complementary to quantitative assessments of health impacts (e.g., loss of source of calories and food insecurity; Keim, 2010 <sup>[[#fn:r1374|1374]]</sup> ). This also encompasses immaterial dimensions, such as threats to cultural heritage (Marzeion and Levermann, 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r1374|1374]]</sup> ; Fatorić and Seekamp, 2017a <sup>[[#fn:r1375|1375]]</sup> ), socialising activities (Karlsson et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1376|1376]]</sup> ), integration of marginalised groups (Maldonado, 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1377|1377]]</sup> ) and cultural ecosystem services (Fish et al., 2016), and provides an opportunity to better reflect context-specificities in valuing the physical/ecological/human/cultural impacts’ importance for and distribution within a given society (Fatorić and Seekamp, 2017b <sup>[[#fn:r1379|1379]]</sup> ). This field of research (no detailed mention found in AR5) is just emerging due to the transdisciplinary and qualitative nature of the topic. Graham et al. (2013) <sup>[[#fn:r1380|1380]]</sup> advance a 5-category framing of social values specifically at risk from SLR: health (i.e., the social determinants of survival such as environmental and housing quality and healthy lifestyles), feeling of safety (e.g., financial and job security), belongingness (i.e., attachment to places and people), self-esteem (e.g., social status or pride that can be affected by coastal retreat), and self-actualisation (i.e., people’s efforts to define their own identity). Another emerging issue relates to social values at risk due to land submergence in low-lying islands (Yamamoto and Esteban, 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r1381|1381]]</sup> ) and parts of countries and individual properties (Marino, 2012 <sup>[[#fn:r1382|1382]]</sup> ; Maldonado et al., 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1383|1383]]</sup> ; Aerts, 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r1384|1384]]</sup> ; Allgood and McNamara, 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r1385|1385]]</sup> ). Recent studies also highlight the potential additional risks to social values in areas where displaced people relocate (Davis et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r1386|1386]]</sup> ).

<span id="conclusion-on-coastal-risk-reasons-for-concern-and-future-risks"></span>