Editing IPCC:AR6/WGI/Chapter-Atlas (section)

==== [[#Atlas.5.4.4|Atlas.5.4.4]] Assessment and Synthesis of Projections ====

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Mean temperature in South East Asia is projected to continue to rise through the 21st century ( ''virtually certain'' , ''very high confidence'' ). Projections by multi-model regional climate simulations of CORDEX-SEA showed a temperature increment over land under RCP8.5 to range from 3°C–5°C by the end of the 21st century relative to the pre-1986–2005 period ( [[#Tangang--2018|Tangang et al., 2018]] ). For the same periods, the average mean temperature increase over land projected by CMIP5 (CMIP6) varies, with 10th–90th percentile ranges, from 0.7°C to 1.3°C (0.7°C to 1.8°C) under RCP2.6 (SSP1-2.6) to 2.8°C to 4.4°C (2.6°C to 4.8°C) under RCP8.5 (SSP5-8.5) (Interactive Atlas). For all GWLs the land region is projected to warm by a slightly smaller amount than the global average, with 10th–90th percentile ranges for CMIP5 (CMIP6) of 1.2°C–1.6°C (1.2°C–1.5°C) for the 1.5°C GWL and of 3.3°C–4.0°C (3.3°C–3.9°C) for the 4°C GWL relative to the 1850–1900 baseline (calculated from RCP8.5 (SSP5-8.5) projections). Changes for other warming levels, periods and emissions pathways are shown in Figure Atlas.1 7 and can be explored in the Interactive Atlas.

Projections of future rainfall changes are highly variable among sub-regions of South East Asia and among the models ( ''high confidence'' ). The CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensembles showed an increase in annual mean precipitation over most land areas by the mid- and late 21st century, although only with a strong model agreement for higher warming levels (Figure Atlas.1 7 and the Interactive Atlas), while CORDEX produces a general decrease in projected precipitation (Figure Atlas.1 7). Based on CORDEX South East Asia multi-model simulations, significant and robust increases of mean rainfall over Indochina and the Philippines were projected while there is a drying tendency over the Maritime Continent during DJF for the early, mid and end of the 21st century periods under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (Figure Atlas.1 9; [[#Tangang--2020|Tangang et al., 2020]] ). At the end of the 21st century during DJF and under RCP8.5, an increase of 20% in mean rainfall is projected over Myanmar, northern central Thailand and northern Laos, and of 5–10% over the eastern Philippines and northern Vietnam. During JJA, significantly drier conditions are projected over almost the entire South East Asia region except over Myanmar and northern Borneo. Over the Indonesian region, especially Java, Sumatra and Kalimantan, as much as a 20–30% decrease in mean rainfall is projected during JJA by the end of the 21st century. The projected drier condition over Indonesia from CORDEX is consistent with that of [[#Kusunoki--2017|Kusunoki (2017)]] , [[#Giorgi--2019|Giorgi et al. (2019)]] , [[#Kang--2019|Kang et al. (2019)]] and Supari et al. (2020) and is associated with enhanced subsidence over the region ( [[#Kang--2019|Kang et al., 2019]] ; [[#Tangang--2020|Tangang et al., 2020]] ).

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[[File:d8e07088a9b5c23845ff3b862e06780d IPCC_AR6_WGI_Atlas_Figure_19.png]]

'''Figure Atlas.19''' '''|''' '''The RCM-projected changes in mean precipitation between the early (2011–2040), mid- (2041–2070) and late (2071–2099) 21st century and the historical period 1976–2005.''' Data are obtained from the CORDEX-SEA downscaling simulations. Diagonal lines indicate areas with low model agreement (less than 80%). Figure adapted from [[#Tangang--2020|Tangang et al. (2020)]] .

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