Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-14 (section)

==== 14.5.10.1 Observed Impacts ====

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===== 14.5.10.1.1 Violence and crime in the past and present =====

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'''Crime, including violent crime, has been associated with higher temperatures in the USA (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' Studies of crime statistics in the USA have revealed a relationship between temperature and a range of violent crimes including aggravated assaults, rapes and homicides; effects for property crimes are weaker ( ''limited evidence, medium agreement'' ) ( [[#Ranson--2014|Ranson, 2014]] ; [[#Houser--2015|Houser et al., 2015]] ; [[#Heilmann--2019|Heilmann and Kahn, 2019]] ; [[#Mares--2019|Mares and Moffett, 2019]] ). These effects have been observed in US urban centres ( [[#Hsiang--2013|Hsiang et al., 2013]] ; [[#Mares--2013|Mares, 2013]] ; [[#Ranson--2014|Ranson, 2014]] ; [[#Schinasi--2017|Schinasi and Hamra, 2017]] ; [[#Heilmann--2019|Heilmann and Kahn, 2019]] ) and more generally across the USA ( [[#Mares--2019|Mares and Moffett, 2019]] ). Differential effects have also been observed within urban areas. Observed higher rates of domestic and intimate partner violence during periods of high heat in less affluent neighbours in Los Angeles have been associated with disparities in access to air conditioning and greenery ( [[#Heilmann--2021|Heilmann et al., 2021]] ). By contrast, Lynch et al. (2020a) found no significant correlation between annual homicide rate and annual temperature for New York City ( [[#Lynch--2020b|Lynch et al., 2020b]] ). For Mexico, [[#Burke--2018a|Burke et al. (2018a)]] found temperature linkages with intergroup killings by drug-trafficking organisations, homicides and suicides. No linkages between temperature and crime have been reported for Canada. Differences in spatial and temporal aggregation of the crime statistics as well as in the measure of climate change or variability explain some of the differences between studies. Several causal pathways can explain these relationships ( [[#Miles-Novelo--2019|Miles-Novelo and Anderson, 2019]] ; [[#Lynch--2020b|Lynch et al., 2020b]] ). The dominant theory is that weather changes result in changes in behavioural patterns that lead to more opportunities for crimes. For example, studies that disaggregate by month often report significant positive associations between temperature anomalies and violent crime (especially aggravated assaults, rapes and homicides), particularly in the cold season ( [[#Harp--2018|Harp and Karnauskas, 2018]] ; [[#Mares--2019|Mares and Moffett, 2019]] ). Smaller increases in crime during positive warm-season temperature anomalies may be due to people seeking shelter in cooler indoor spaces, decreasing crimes of opportunity ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-7#7.2.7|Section 7.2.7]] ; [[#Gamble--2012|Gamble and Hess, 2012]] ).

'''The archaeological record has been used to infer linkages between climatic variability and social process, including violence (inferred with''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' Past North American societies have been exposed to greater climatic variability than is documented in the instrumental record. Because future climatic conditions are likely to exceed those known for the recent past (Cross-Chapter Box PALEO in Chapter 1), the North American archaeological record can illuminate possible relationships between climate variability and violence that cannot be observed in the present record. In the upland southwest US between 600 and 1280 CE, one study found that violence significantly increased as climatically controlled maize production decreased and interannual variability increased ( ''low evidence, high agreement'' ) ( [[#Kohler--2014|Kohler et al., 2014]] ); massive emigration from the northern Southwest in the last half of the 1200s CE is connected with, though not completely explained by, climatic variability ( [[#Scheffer--2021|Scheffer et al., 2021]] ). In the central and southern Maya lowlands, following centuries of increasing populations and attempts to produce more maize ( [[#Roman--2018|Roman et al., 2018]] ), episodes of drought and/or increased summer temperatures in the 9th and 10th centuries ( [[#Dunning--2012|Dunning et al., 2012]] ; [[#Kennett--2012|Kennett et al., 2012]] ) accompanied increased conflicts and social disintegration including collapse of long-lived dynasties, cessation of monumental inscriptions ( [[#Carleton--2017|Carleton et al., 2017]] ) and emigration ( ''medium evidence, medium agreement'' ). Such findings reinforce research on contemporary societies that climate-induced farming shortfalls in regions dependent on agriculture may induce or exacerbate conflict, especially in interaction with unfavourable demographic, political and socioeconomic factors ( ''medium evidence, medium agreement'' ) ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-7#7.2.7|Section 7.2.7]] ; e.g., [[#Koubi--2019|Koubi, 2019]] ).

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===== 14.5.10.1.2 Security =====

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'''Climate change poses risks to peace ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-16#16.5.2.3.8|Section 16.5.2.3.8]] ) that could affect North America (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' Military and security communities are adapting their planning, operations and infrastructure to current impacts of climate change in North America and globally ( ''medium agreement, medium evidence'' ). Arctic nations are renewing their military capacity and expanding their constabulary presence around their existing boundaries ( [[#Choi--2020|Choi, 2020]] ). There is increasing awareness that climate change causes weather patterns and extreme events that directly harm military installations and readiness through infrastructure damage, loss of utilities, and loss of operational capability (Duffy- [[#Anderson--2019|Anderson et al., 2019]] ). Transboundary disputes and competition over resources, such as fish ( [[#Østhagen--2020|Østhagen, 2020]] ), are a concern in the changing Arctic and increases in military and constabulary operations are being observed ( [[#Jönsson--2012|Jönsson et al., 2012]] ; [[#Smith--2018|Smith et al., 2018]] ; [[#Eyzaguirre--2021|Eyzaguirre et al., 2021]] ).

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