Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-5 (section)

=== 5.8.2 Assessing Vulnerabilities ===

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In the absence of adaptive measures, climate-induced changes in the abundances and distributions of fish will impact the provision, nutrition and livelihood security of many people ( ''high confidence'' ) as well as regional and global trade patterns ( ''medium confidence'' ).

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==== 5.8.2.1 Food security: provision and nutrition ====

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The importance of seafood in food security and nutrition is increasing, largely due to its contribution as high-quality food ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Hicks--2019|Hicks et al., 2019]] ), as seafood contains unique long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids (LC-PUFAs) and highly bioavailable essential micronutrients—vitamins (A, B and D) and minerals (calcium, phosphorus, iodine, zinc, iron and selenium). These compounds, often not readily available elsewhere in diets, have beneficial effects for adult health and child cognitive development ( [[#HLPE--2014|HLPE, 2014]] ). Changes in marine and freshwater fish production can have significant consequences for human nutrition ( [[#Colombo--2020|Colombo et al., 2020]] ). These changes are of particular concern in regions with few nutrition alternatives, such as low-income countries in Africa, Asia, Australasia, and Central and South America ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Ding--2017|Ding et al., 2017]] ; [[#Kibria--2017|Kibria et al., 2017]] ).

Freshwater ecosystems that support most inland fisheries are under continuing threat from changes in land use, water availability and pollution and other pressures that will be exacerbated by climate change ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-4#4.3.5|Section 4.3.5]] ). Declines in dissolved oxygen in freshwater are 2.75–9.3 times greater than observed in the world’s oceans ( [[#Jane--2021|Jane et al., 2021]] ). These systems have a relatively low buffering capacity and are therefore more sensitive to climate-related shocks and variability ( [[#Harrod--2018b|Harrod et al., 2018b]] ). Freshwater faunae are projected to be highly vulnerable; in the tropics because organisms are closer to approaching their thermal physiological limits and in the northern hemisphere (30–50°N) because the rate of temperature change is faster ( [[#Comte--2017|Comte and Olden, 2017]] ). The worldwide spatial confluence of productive freshwater fisheries and low food security highlights the critical role of rivers and lakes in providing locally sourced, low-cost, nutritious food sources ( [[#McIntyre--2016|McIntyre et al., 2016]] ).

Deltas and other wetland fisheries are extremely vulnerable to climate change and home to a large and growing proportion of the world’s population. In India, Ghana and Bangladesh, where three of the most populated Deltaic systems are located, subsistence fisheries provide 12–60% of the animal protein in people’s diets ( [[#Lauria--2018|Lauria et al., 2018]] ).

The concern over aquatic food products’ safety due to climate change is increasing ( ''high confidence'' ). A strong positive relationship exists between specific bacterial growth rates and temperature, including pathogenic species of the genera ''Vibrio'' , ''Listeria'' , ''Clostridium'' , ''Aeromonas'' , ''Salmonella'' , ''Escherichia'' and others, whose distributional area is expanding with changing climate conditions (Cross-Chapter Box ILLNESS in Chapter 2, [[#5.12.1|Section 5.12.1]] ).

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==== 5.8.2.2 Social vulnerabilities, including gender and marginalised groups and cultural services ====

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There is ''high confidence'' that climate change is and will continue to be a threat to the livelihood of millions of fishers, with the most vulnerable being those with fewer opportunities and less income ( [[#Barange--2018|Barange and Cochrane, 2018]] ; [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-3#3.4.3|Section 3.4.3]] ). The social vulnerability can differ largely between locations, even between relatively close coastal or inland communities ( [[#Bennett--2014|Bennett et al., 2014]] ; [[#Maina--2016|Maina et al., 2016]] ; [[#Ndhlovu--2017|Ndhlovu et al., 2017]] ; [[#Martins--2019|Martins et al., 2019]] ) and among inhabitants within a location, depending on factors such as access to other economic activities, education, health, adults in the household, and political connections ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Senapati--2017|Senapati and Gupta, 2017]] ; [[#Abu%20Samah--2019|Abu Samah et al., 2019]] ; [[#Lowe--2019|Lowe et al., 2019]] ).

Indigenous coastal communities consume 1.5–2.8 million metric tonnes of fish per year (about 2% of global yearly commercial marine catch), and reach a per capita consumption estimated to be 15 times greater than that of non-Indigenous country populations ( [[#Cisneros-Montemayor--2016|Cisneros-Montemayor et al., 2016]] ). There is ''high confidence'' that some Indigenous fishing communities are particularly vulnerable to climate change through a reduced capacity to conduct traditional harvests because of limited access to, or availability of, fish resources ( [[#Weatherdon--2016|Weatherdon et al., 2016]] ), with consequences that include dietary shifts with significant nutritional and health implications ( [[#Marushka--2019|Marushka et al., 2019]] ), displacement and loss of cultural identity ( [[#Sullivan--2018|Sullivan and Rosenberg, 2018]] ) and loss of social, economic and cultural rights ( [[#Finkbeiner--2018|Finkbeiner et al., 2018]] ). Areas of high risk for Indigenous Peoples include the Arctic, coastal communities with a high dependency on marine and freshwater fisheries, and Small Island States and Territories ( [[#Finkbeiner--2018|Finkbeiner et al., 2018]] ; [[#Hanich--2018|Hanich et al., 2018]] , Section [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/5#CCP6.2.5 CCP6.2.5.1] ).

Women play a crucial role along the entire fisheries value chain, providing labour force in industrialised and small-scale fisheries all around the world ( [[#FAO--2020d|FAO, 2020d]] ). For small-scale fisheries alone, women represent about 11% of the labour force, and their activity is generally in subsistence fisheries, highlighting their role in household food security ( [[#Harper--2020|Harper et al., 2020]] ). In general, gendered division of labour tends to cause lower salaries for women and different perception and experience of risk to climate change impacts ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Lokuge--2017|Lokuge and Hilhorst, 2017]] ).

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==== 5.8.2.3 Management, economic and geopolitical vulnerabilities ====

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Local, national, regional and international fisheries are mostly underprepared for geographic shifts in marine animals driven by climate change over the coming decades ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Pinsky--2018|Pinsky et al., 2018]] ; [[#Oremus--2020|Oremus et al., 2020]] ; [[#Pinsky--2020|Pinsky et al., 2020]] ). With fisheries distribution changes, sometimes into areas dedicated to different historical uses or new ventures, the current management regimes will face constraining legal frameworks ( [[#Farady--2019|Farady and Bigford, 2019]] ; [[#Pinsky--2020|Pinsky et al., 2020]] ), which will demand interventions in the form of policies, programmes and actions, at multiple scales (Cross-Chapter Box MOVING PLATE this chapter). Coordinated fisheries management can substantially expand capacity to respond to a changing climate ( [[#Pinsky--2020|Pinsky et al., 2020]] ), but a great deal of political will, capacity building and collective action will be necessary ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Teslić--2017|Teslić et al., 2017]] ; [[#Burden--2019|Burden and Fujita, 2019]] ; [[#5.8.4|Section 5.8.4]] ).

Today, approximately half the world’s population (~4 billion out of 7.8 billion people) are assessed as being currently subject to severe water scarcity for at least 1 month per year ( ''medium confidence'' ) (Box 4.1), and freshwater inland fisheries are particularly vulnerable as they are given lower priority for water resources than other sectors ( ''high confidence'' ). In some cases, this situation results in the total loss of freshwater fisheries. Examples include diversion of water for agriculture, shifts from food provision to recreational fisheries, conserving biodiversity, and the requirement for high-quality water for drinking water supply ( [[#5.13|Section 5.13]] , [[#Harrod--2018a|Harrod et al., 2018a]] ).

There is ''high confidence'' that climate change increases the risk of conflicts due to the redistribution of stocks and their abundance fluctuations, with subsequent impacts on resource sharing ( [[#Spijkers--2017|Spijkers and Boonstra, 2017]] ; [[#Pinsky--2018|Pinsky et al., 2018]] ; [[#Spijkers--2018|Spijkers et al., 2018]] ; [[#Mendenhall--2020|Mendenhall et al., 2020]] ; [[#Pinsky--2020|Pinsky et al., 2020]] ). High vulnerability and lack of adaptive capacity to climate change impacts (including fisheries-dependent livelihoods, attachment to place, and pre-existing tensions) increase the risk of conflicts, including among fishery area users and authorities ( [[#Ndhlovu--2017|Ndhlovu et al., 2017]] ; [[#Shaffril--2017|Shaffril et al., 2017]] ; [[#Spijkers--2017|Spijkers and Boonstra, 2017]] ; [[#Mendenhall--2020|Mendenhall et al., 2020]] ). Similarly, shifts in the distribution of transboundary fish stocks under climate change alter the current sharing of resources between countries and create conflicts as well as new opportunities (Cross-Chapter Box MOVING PLATE this chapter, [[#Spijkers--2017|Spijkers and Boonstra, 2017]] ; [[#Pinsky--2018|Pinsky et al., 2018]] ).

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