Editing IPCC:AR6/SROCC/Chapter-4 (section)

===== 4.3.3.6.1 Coastal agriculture =====

SLR will affect agriculture mainly through land submergence, soil and fresh groundwater resources salinisation, and land loss due to permanent coastal erosion, with consequences on production, livelihood diversification and food security, especially in heavily coastal agriculture-dependent countries such as Bangladesh (Khanom, 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r13|13]]</sup> 41). Recent literature confirms that salinisation is already a major problem for traditional agriculture in deltas (Wong et al., 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r1342|1342]]</sup> ; Khai et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r1343|1343]]</sup> ) and low-lying island nations where some edible cultivated plants such as taro patches are threatened (Nunn et al., 2017b <sup>[[#fn:r1344|1344]]</sup> ). Taking the case of rice cultivation, recent works emphasise the prevailing role of combined surface elevation and soil salinity, such as in the Mekong delta (Vietnam; Smajgl et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1345|1345]]</sup> ) and in the Ebro delta (Spain; Genua-Olmedo et al., 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r1346|1346]]</sup> ), estimating for the latter a decrease in the rice production index from 61.2% in 2010 to 33.8% by 2100 in a 1.8 m SLR scenario. For seven wetland species occurring in coastal freshwater marshes in central Veracruz on the Gulf of Mexico, an increase in salinity was shown to affect the germination process under wetland salt intrusion (Sánchez-García et al., 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r1347|1347]]</sup> ). In coastal Bangladesh, oilseed, sugarcane and jute cultivation was reported to be already discontinued due to challenges to cope with current salinity levels (Khanom, 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r1348|1348]]</sup> ), and salinity is projected to have an unambiguously negative influence on all dry-season crops over the next 15–45 years (especially in the southwest; Clarke et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r1349|1349]]</sup> ; Kabir et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r1350|1350]]</sup> ). Salinity intrusion and salinisation can trigger land use changes towards brackish or saline aquaculture such as shrimp or rice-shrimp systems with impacts on environment, livelihoods and income stability (Renaud et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1351|1351]]</sup> ). However, increasing salinity is only one of the land use change drivers along with, for example, policy changes and market prices at the household level (Renaud et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1352|1352]]</sup> ).

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