Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-9 (section)

=== 9.5.9 Teleconnections and Large-Scale Drivers of African Climate Variability ===

<div id="h2-20-siblings" class="h2-siblings"></div>

The ENSO, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Southern Annular Mode (SAM) are the primary large-scale drivers of African seasonal and interannual climate variability. The diurnal temperature range tends to be greater during La Niña than El Niño in northeastern Africa ( [[#Hurrell--2003|Hurrell et al., 2003]] ; [[#Donat--2014a|Donat et al., 2014a]] ), and in southern Africa, the El Niño warming effect has been stronger for more recent times (1979–2016) compared to earlier period (1940–1978) ( [[#Lakhraj-Govender--2019|Lakhraj-Govender and Grab, 2019]] ). In east Africa, ENSO and IOD exert an interannual control on particularly October–November–December (short rains) and June–July–August–September seasons. In southern Africa, El Niño is associated with negative rainfall and positive temperature anomalies with the opposite true for La Niña. The SAM exerts control on rainfall in the southwestern parts of the region and a positive SAM mode is often associated with lower seasonal rainfall in the region ( [[#Reason--2005|Reason and Rouault, 2005]] ). The SAM shows a systematic positive trend over the last five decades ( [[#Niang--2014|Niang et al., 2014]] ).

There is no clear indication that climate change will impact the frequencies of ENSO and IOD ( [[#Stevenson--2012|Stevenson et al., 2012]] ; [[#Endris--2019|Endris et al., 2019]] ), although there is some indication that extreme ENSO events and extreme phases of the IOD, particularly the positive phase, may become more frequent with implications for extreme events associated with these features, such as drought ( [[#Collins--2019|Collins et al., 2019]] ; [[#Cai--2021|Cai et al., 2021]] ; [[#Seneviratne--2021|Seneviratne et al., 2021]] ). Under high-emission scenarios, a positive trend in SAM is projected to continue through the 21st century, however, under low emission scenarios, this trend is projected to be weak or even negative given the potential for ozone hole recovery ( [[#Arblaster--2011|Arblaster et al., 2011]] ).

<div id="9.5.10" class="h2-container"></div>

<span id="african-marine-heatwaves"></span>