Editing IPCC:AR6/WGI/Chapter-12 (section)

==== 12.4.5.6 Other ====

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'''Compound events:''' One typical compound event that is observed in the European area is compound flooding due to the combination of extreme sea level events and extreme precipitation events associated with high levels of runoff. In the present climate, the Mediterranean coasts are exposed to a higher probability of this type of compound flooding event ( [[#Bevacqua--2019|Bevacqua et al., 2019]] ). Under RCP8.5, the probability of these events is projected to increase along northern European coasts (west coast of UK, northern France, the east and south coast of the North Sea, and the eastern half of the Black Sea), with the percentage of coastline now experiencing such events at least once every 6 years increasing by between 3% and 11% by the end of the 21st century ( [[#Bevacqua--2019|Bevacqua et al., 2019]] ).

Under RCP8.5, regions in Russia, France and Germany are projected to experience an increase in the frequency and the length of wet and cold compound events, while Spain and Bulgaria are projected to stay longer in the hot and dry state by mid-century ( [[#Sedlmeier--2016|Sedlmeier et al., 2016]] ).

Compound events of dry and hot summers have increased in Europe. [[#Manning--2019|Manning et al. (2019)]] found that the probability of such compound events has increased across much of Europe between 1950–1979 and 1984–2013, notably in southern, eastern and western Europe. Compound hot and dry extremes are projected to increase in Europe by mid-century for the SRES A1B and RCP8.5 with a particularly strong signal projected in southern and eastern Germany and the Czech Republic ( [[#Sedlmeier--2016|Sedlmeier et al., 2016]] ).

The assessed direction of change in climatic impact-drivers for Europe and associated confidence levels are illustrated in Table 12.7, together with emergence time information ( [[#12.5.2|Section 12.5.2]] ). No assessable literature could be found for sand and dust storms, although these phenomena may be relevant in parts of the region.

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'''Table 12.7''' '''|''' '''Summary of confidence in direction of projected change in climatic impact-drivers in Europe, representing their aggregate characteristic changes for mid-century for scenarios RCP4.5, SSP2-4.5, SRES A1B, or above within each AR6 region (defined in Chapter 1), approximately corresponding (for CIDs that are independent of sea level rise) to global warming levels between 2°C and 2.4°C (see [[#12.4|Section 12.4]] for more details of the assessment method).''' The table also includes the assessment of observed or projected time-of-emergence of the CID change signal from the natural interannual variability if found with at least ''medium confidence'' in [[#12.5.2|Section 12.5.2]] .

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