Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-17 (section)

== 17.6 Managing and Adapting to Climate Risks for Climate Resilient Development ==

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Actions to ameliorate a climate risk have consequences beyond the immediate effects on exposure or vulnerability to a hazard. They may aim to combat many risks, could adversely interact with other risks and actions, or may be nested within a suite of actions across many risks. Some actions may have negative consequences for climate resilient development. In this broader context, the effectiveness of adaptations for supporting climate resilient development is now better articulated (Box 17.1). Importantly, adaptations need to be designed to not only combat current and future climate risks but also ensure that they do not lock in undesirable pathways in the future as risks develop and change ( ''very high confidence'' ) (Sections 17.2, 17.3.1, 17.5). Effective management of climate risks will therefore be dependent on satisfactorily managing current climate risks (Boxes 17.1, 17.2, 17.5), coupled with assessing prognoses for future climate risks, and developing responses in advance for reducing those risks to tolerable residual levels ( ''very high confidence'' ) (Sections 1.4, 1.6, 16.6, 17.2, Box 16.1; e.g., water risks, [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-4#4.7.1|Section 4.7.1]] ). The dynamic nature of risk (Viner et al., 2019; [[#Simpson--2021|Simpson et al., 2021]] ; Sections 16.3, 16.6) also means that the contribution of current adaptations to ameliorating future risks needs to be regularly reviewed ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#17.5.2|Section 17.5.2]] ). Across the Working Group II report are examples of how managing adaptations to ameliorate climate risks can negatively or positively affect sustainable development, thereby impacting the potential for climate resilient development discussed in Chapter 18. Drawing on the assessment of sectoral and regional chapters in this report, this section examines three broad components for orienting decision-making for climate adaptation towards climate resilient development.

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=== 17.6.1 Need for Integrated Risk Management ===

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The complex, interacting and compounding nature of climate risks means that single risks cannot be managed in isolation ( ''very high confidence'' ) ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-16#16.5|Section 16.5]] , Figure 16.11; [[#17.3.2|Section 17.3.2]] ; [[#Nhamo--2018|Nhamo et al., 2018]] ), including accounting for potential risks arising from adaptations ( [[#Simpson--2021|Simpson et al., 2021]] ). Regional examples of needs for cross-sectoral integrated management include the water–energy–food nexus in Africa ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-10#10.5.1|Section 10.5.1]] ), Asia ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-10#10.6.3|Section 10.6.3]] ), Australasia ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-11#11.6|Section 11.6]] ), Europe ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-13#13.2.2|Section 13.2.2]] ) and North America (Table 14.8), and ecosystem-oriented adaptations and/or nature-based solutions, in Africa ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-9#9.6|Section 9.6.5]] ), Asia ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-10#10.4.2|Section 10.4.2]] ), Australasia (Box 11.4, [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-11#11.3.5|Section 11.3.5]] ), Central and South America ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-12#12.5.1|Section 12.5.1]] ), Europe ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-13#13.3.2|Section 13.3.2]] ), North America ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-14#14.6.1|Section 14.6.1]] , Box 14.3) and Small Islands ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-15#15.5.4|Section 15.5.4]] ). The cross-sectoral interactions within humans systems, including impacts on cities, settlements and infrastructure, are reflected in those subjects as well as for health in Africa ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-9#9.10.2|Section 9.10.2]] ), Asia ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-10#10.4.5|Section 10.4.5]] ), Australasia ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-11#11.3.6|Section 11.3.6]] ), Central and South America ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-12#12.5.6|Section 12.5.6]] ), Europe ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-13#13.7.2|Section 13.7.2]] ), North America ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-14#14.6.1|Section 14.6.1]] ) and Small Islands ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-15#15.6.2|Section 15.6.2]] ), and poverty and livelihoods in Africa ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-9#9.11.3|Section 9.11.3]] ), Asia (Sections 10.4.5, 10.5), Australasia ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-11#11.4|Section 11.4]] ), Central and South America ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-12#12.5.7|Section 12.5.7]] ), Europe ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-13#13.8.2|Section 13.8.2]] ), North America ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-14#14.6.1|Section 14.6.1]] ) and Small Islands ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-15#15.3.4|Section 15.3.4]] ).

These examples demonstrate that the emergence of climate risks can be at different rates and different time horizons, and the interactions between risks vary from region to region ( ''very high confidence'' ). The need to manage these risks in an integrated manner is readily identified in the water–energy–food nexus (Box 9.5). However, in terms of climate resilient development, the need for integration is demonstrated by the diverse and interacting impacts of climate risks on ecosystems (Sections 2.7, 3.6), cities (Sections 6.2.3, 6.2.4, Boxes 6.2, 6.3), health ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-7#7.4|Section 7.4]] ), and poverty and livelihoods ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-8#8.6|Section 8.6]] ).

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=== 17.6.2 Strategies for Managing a Portfolio of Climate Risks ===

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Since WGII AR5, new methods for simultaneously considering multiple societal and sectoral objectives, climate risks and adaptation options have emerged ( [[#17.3.2|Section 17.3.2]] ; [[#Adam--2014|Adam et al., 2014]] ; [[#Hadka--2015|Hadka et al., 2015]] ; [[#Garner--2016|Garner et al., 2016]] ; [[#Rosenzweig--2017|Rosenzweig et al., 2017]] ; [[#Giupponi--2017a|Giupponi and Gain, 2017a]] ; [[#Stelzenmuller--2018|Stelzenmuller et al., 2018]] ; [[#Marchau--2019|Marchau et al., 2019]] ), including methods for accounting for different sources of uncertainty and types of risk ( [[#17.3.1|Section 17.3.1]] ; [[#Giupponi--2017a|Giupponi and Gain, 2017a]] ). Different decision-making approaches can be complementary ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#17.3.1|Section 17.3.1]] ; [[#Kwakkel--2016|Kwakkel et al., 2016]] ), and multiple approaches will likely be necessary in managing the risks across sectors, over different spatial scales, and over short to long time scales ( ''medium confidence'' ) (Cross-Chapter Box PROGRESS in this Chapter; [[#Girard--2015|Girard et al., 2015]] ; [[#Rouillard--2016|Rouillard and Spray, 2016]] ).

Deciding on which adaptations to adopt when managing climate risks inevitably needs examination of trade-offs in outcomes ( ''very high confidence'' ) (Sections 17.3.1, 17.5.1; Cross-Chapter Box FEASIB in Chapter 18). A current difficulty with integrated assessments is to develop a set of metrics that are appropriately scaled for the different sectors or outcomes to be compared (e.g., Sections 12.5.2.6, 17.3.1, 17.5.2; Cross-Chapter Box PROGRESS in this Chapter). For climate resilient development, dimensions of poverty, equity, justice and health need to be factored into analyses (Boxes 17.1, 17.5), many of which are difficult to quantify ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-18#18.2.4|Section 18.2.4]] ). Moreover, uncertainties on the interactions within and between sectors can make trade-off analyses uneven in their precision across sectors and uncertain as to the outcome of an implemented adaptation ( ''medium confidence'' ) (Sections 4.7.2, 17.4, 17.5).

Expertise and resources for using tools and approaches for integrated risk management vary between the developed and developing countries ( ''high confidence'' ) (e.g., [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-4#4.7.2|Section 4.7.2]] ). Exploration of adaptation scenarios can be derived from Earth System Models ( ''high confidence'' ) (e.g., Sections 4.7.1.2, 11.7.3.1). However, the feasibility of possible adaptations and the degree to which they are likely to be effective (Box 17.1) will require further exploration as success will depend on appropriate enabling conditions, including institutional support and capacity, available financial resources and knowledge, and suitable conditions for stakeholder participation ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#17.4|Section 17.4]] ). The current levels of uncertainty surrounding the effectiveness of many adaptation options ( [[#17.5.2|Section 17.5.2]] ; Cross-Chapter Box PROGRESS in this Chapter) means that decision-making approaches applicable to deep uncertainty (Cross-Chapter Box DEEP in this Chapter; [[#17.3.1|Section 17.3.1]] ) will apply in many if not most cases ( ''medium confidence'' ). An early step in identifying suitable integrated pathways for managing climate risks, establishing ‘no regrets’ anticipatory options in a timely manner, and avoiding path dependencies is to jointly map the steps for adapting to sectoral risks and determine suitable ways to avoid maladaptations arising ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#17.3.1|Section 17.3.1]] , Cross-Working Group Box URBAN in [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-6|Chapter 6]] and Cross-Chapter Boxes DEEP in this Chapter). The application of Dynamic Adaptive Pathway planning has been successfully used in this way in Australasia ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-11#11.7.3|Section 11.7.3]] ) and Europe (Sections 13.6.2.2, 13.10.2) ( [[#Lawrence--2019|Lawrence et al., 2019]] a; [[#Haasnoot--2020a|Haasnoot et al., 2020a]] ). Current experience suggests that synergies between sectors can save resources and effort ( ''limited evidence'' ) ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-13#13.11.2|Section 13.11.2]] ). Iterative processes can then enhance adaptation programmes by including more detailed modelling, and updated knowledge as the experience is acquired ( [[#17.3.1|Section 17.3.1]] ).

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=== 17.6.3 Mainstreaming Climate Risk Management in Support of Climate Resilient Development ===

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This chapter has assessed and detailed a number of decision-making tools ( [[#17.3|Section 17.3]] ) and enabling mechanisms and catalysing conditions ( [[#17.4|Section 17.4]] ) that could be used in mainstreaming the management of climate risk and adaptation in the sustainable development of communities, different sectors and nations. Since AR5, the challenges facing the management of climate risks have been articulated ( [[#Adger--2018|Adger et al., 2018]] ; [[#Balasubramanian--2018|Balasubramanian, 2018]] ), and greater clarity on the steps that could be taken to better mainstream adaptation has been developed ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Cuevas--2016|Cuevas, 2016]] ; [[#Giupponi--2017a|Giupponi and Gain, 2017a]] ; [[#Gomez-Echeverri--2018|Gomez-Echeverri, 2018]] ; [[#Sanchez%20Rodriguez--2018|Sanchez Rodriguez et al., 2018]] ). Nevertheless, the choice of decision processes is recognised as being dependent on a variety of local factors influencing development ( [[#Ayers--2014|Ayers et al., 2014]] ; [[#Szabo--2016|Szabo et al., 2016]] ).

Adaptation strategies or plans, some of which incorporate elements of climate resilient development, have been developed in many jurisdictions from local ( [[#Cuevas--2016|Cuevas, 2016]] ; [[#Araos--2016a|Araos et al., 2016a]] ; [[#Reckien--2018a|Reckien et al., 2018a]] ; [[#Göpfert--2019|Göpfert et al., 2019]] ) to provincial/state ( [[#Warnken--2018|Warnken and Mosadeghi, 2018]] ) to national governments ( [[#Markolf--2015|Markolf et al., 2015]] ; [[#CSIRO--2018|CSIRO, 2018]] ; [[#Warnken--2018|Warnken and Mosadeghi, 2018]] ; [[#Brown--2018|Brown et al., 2018]] a; Table 17.8). National Adaptation Plans have been a requirement under the UNFCCC and establish the general approach taken by nations for adapting to climate change ( [[#Woodruff--2019|Woodruff and Regan, 2019]] ). Integrated risk assessments and adaptation processes are being developed but with much less experience evident in their implementation ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Wise--2014|Wise et al., 2014]] ; [[#Woodruff--2016|Woodruff and Stults, 2016]] ; [[#Brown--2018|Brown et al., 2018]] a).

National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) submitted to the UNFCCC have been reviewed for quality by [[#Woodruff--2019|Woodruff and Regan (2019)]] . In their review, Woodruff and Regan used a number of indicators grouped within established ‘quality principles’. They found that the plans were more oriented at the strategic level or at the level of specific projects rather than identifying methods for resolving cross-sectoral or cross-jurisdictional interactions or issues ( ''medium confidence'' ). A key recommendation from their review and supported by other studies (e.g., [[#Abutaleb--2018|Abutaleb et al., 2018]] ) is that plans would be improved greatly by having inputs from multiple government agencies and multiple sectors ( ''medium confidence'' ), which could provide the basis for planning and review of integrated adaptation. Also, the plans need greater attention to implementation (Sections 9.4.1, 11.8, 13.11.2), and the identification of metrics by which success ( [[#17.5.1|Section 17.5.1]] ) and performance can be measured (Cross-Chapter Box PROGRESS in this Chapter), a common issue for adaptation planning generally (e.g., Sections 12.5.2.6, 17.5).

Hence, satisfactorily managing intersecting climate risks in different settings, of which RKRs provide examples, is central to achieving sustainable development ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-16#16.6|Section 16.6.4]] ), requiring integrated risk management within and across regions, jurisdictions, sectors and ecosystems ( ''high confidence'' ) (see [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/17#CCP5.4.2 CCP5.4.2] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/17#CCP5.4.3 CCP5.4.3] ). Iterative processes will enable measuring progress and updating adaptation at a satisfactory rate, to account for the different needs within regions and across sectors at different times ( ''high confidence'' ). The degree to which equity and justice will be achieved will be determined by the participatory processes in deciding on suitable adaptation options, the investment in the adaptation processes and the coordination and collaboration built among institutions and people across regions ( ''high confidence'' ).

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