Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-5 (section)

==== 5.8.2.3 Management, economic and geopolitical vulnerabilities ====

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Local, national, regional and international fisheries are mostly underprepared for geographic shifts in marine animals driven by climate change over the coming decades ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Pinsky--2018|Pinsky et al., 2018]] ; [[#Oremus--2020|Oremus et al., 2020]] ; [[#Pinsky--2020|Pinsky et al., 2020]] ). With fisheries distribution changes, sometimes into areas dedicated to different historical uses or new ventures, the current management regimes will face constraining legal frameworks ( [[#Farady--2019|Farady and Bigford, 2019]] ; [[#Pinsky--2020|Pinsky et al., 2020]] ), which will demand interventions in the form of policies, programmes and actions, at multiple scales (Cross-Chapter Box MOVING PLATE this chapter). Coordinated fisheries management can substantially expand capacity to respond to a changing climate ( [[#Pinsky--2020|Pinsky et al., 2020]] ), but a great deal of political will, capacity building and collective action will be necessary ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Teslić--2017|Teslić et al., 2017]] ; [[#Burden--2019|Burden and Fujita, 2019]] ; [[#5.8.4|Section 5.8.4]] ).

Today, approximately half the world’s population (~4 billion out of 7.8 billion people) are assessed as being currently subject to severe water scarcity for at least 1 month per year ( ''medium confidence'' ) (Box 4.1), and freshwater inland fisheries are particularly vulnerable as they are given lower priority for water resources than other sectors ( ''high confidence'' ). In some cases, this situation results in the total loss of freshwater fisheries. Examples include diversion of water for agriculture, shifts from food provision to recreational fisheries, conserving biodiversity, and the requirement for high-quality water for drinking water supply ( [[#5.13|Section 5.13]] , [[#Harrod--2018a|Harrod et al., 2018a]] ).

There is ''high confidence'' that climate change increases the risk of conflicts due to the redistribution of stocks and their abundance fluctuations, with subsequent impacts on resource sharing ( [[#Spijkers--2017|Spijkers and Boonstra, 2017]] ; [[#Pinsky--2018|Pinsky et al., 2018]] ; [[#Spijkers--2018|Spijkers et al., 2018]] ; [[#Mendenhall--2020|Mendenhall et al., 2020]] ; [[#Pinsky--2020|Pinsky et al., 2020]] ). High vulnerability and lack of adaptive capacity to climate change impacts (including fisheries-dependent livelihoods, attachment to place, and pre-existing tensions) increase the risk of conflicts, including among fishery area users and authorities ( [[#Ndhlovu--2017|Ndhlovu et al., 2017]] ; [[#Shaffril--2017|Shaffril et al., 2017]] ; [[#Spijkers--2017|Spijkers and Boonstra, 2017]] ; [[#Mendenhall--2020|Mendenhall et al., 2020]] ). Similarly, shifts in the distribution of transboundary fish stocks under climate change alter the current sharing of resources between countries and create conflicts as well as new opportunities (Cross-Chapter Box MOVING PLATE this chapter, [[#Spijkers--2017|Spijkers and Boonstra, 2017]] ; [[#Pinsky--2018|Pinsky et al., 2018]] ).

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