Editing IPCC:AR6/SR15/Chapter-3 (section)

==== 3.4.9.1 Tourism ====

<div id="section-3-4-9-1-block-1"></div>

The implications of climate change for the global tourism sector are far-reaching and are impacting sector investments, destination assets (environment and cultural), operational and transportation costs, and tourist demand patterns (Scott et al., 2016a; Scott and Gössling, 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r1036|1036]]</sup> . Since AR5, observed impacts on tourism markets and destination communities continue to be not well analysed, despite the many analogue conditions (e.g., heatwaves, major hurricanes, wild fires, reduced snow pack, coastal erosion and coral reef bleaching) that are anticipated to occur more frequently with climate change. There is some evidence that observed impacts on tourism assets, such as environmental and cultural heritage, are leading to the development of ‘last chance to see’ tourism markets, where travellers visit destinations before they are substantially degraded by climate change impacts or to view the impacts of climate change on landscapes (Lemelin et al., 2012; Stewart et al., 2016; Piggott-McKellar and McNamara, 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r1037|1037]]</sup> .

There is limited research on the differential risks of a 1.5° versus 2°C temperature increase and resultant environmental and socio-economic impacts in the tourism sector. The translation of these changes in climate resources for tourism into projections of tourism demand remains geographically limited to Europe. Based on analyses of tourist comfort, summer and spring /autumn tourism in much of western Europe may be favoured by 1.5°C of warming, but with negative effects projected for Spain and Cyprus (decreases of 8% and 2%, respectively, in overnight stays) and most coastal regions of the Mediterranean (Jacob et al., 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r1038|1038]]</sup> . Similar geographic patterns of potential tourism gains (central and northern Europe) and reduced summer favourability (Mediterranean countries) are projected under 2°C (Grillakis et al., 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r1039|1039]]</sup> . Considering potential changes in natural snow only, winter overnight stays at 1.5°C are projected to decline by 1–2% in Austria, Italy and Slovakia, with an additional 1.9 million overnight stays lost under 2°C of warming (Jacob et al., 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r1040|1040]]</sup> . Using an econometric analysis of the relationship between regional tourism demand and climate conditions, Ciscar et al. (2014) <sup>[[#fn:r1041|1041]]</sup> projected that a 2°C warmer world would reduce European tourism by 5% (€15 billion yr <sup>–1</sup> ), with losses of up to 11% (€6 billion yr <sup>–1</sup> ) for southern Europe and a potential gain of €0.5 billion yr <sup>–1</sup> in the UK.

There is growing evidence that the magnitude of projected impacts is temperature dependent and that sector risks could be much greater with higher temperature increases and resultant environmental and socio-economic impacts (Markham et al., 2016; Scott et al., 2016a; Jones, 2017; Steiger et al., 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r1042|1042]]</sup> . Studies from 27 countries consistently project substantially decreased reliability of ski areas that are dependent on natural snow, increased snowmaking requirements and investment in snowmaking systems, shortened and more variable ski seasons, a contraction in the number of operating ski areas, altered competitiveness among and within regional ski markets, and subsequent impacts on employment and the value of vacation properties (Steiger et al., 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r1043|1043]]</sup> . Studies that omit snowmaking do not reflect the operating realities of most ski areas and overestimate impacts at 1.5°C–2°C. In all regional markets, the extent and timing of these impacts depend on the magnitude of climate change and the types of adaptive responses by the ski industry, skiers and destination communities. The decline in the number of former Olympic Winter Games host locations that could remain climatically reliable for future Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games has been projected to be much greater under scenarios warmer than 2°C (Scott et al., 2015; Jacob et al., 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r1044|1044]]</sup> .

The tourism sector is also affected by climate-induced changes in environmental assets critical for tourism, including biodiversity, beaches, glaciers and other features important for environmental and cultural heritage. Limited analyses of projected risks associated with 1.5°C versus 2°C are available (Section 3.4.4.12). A global analysis of sea level rise (SLR) risk to 720 UNESCO Cultural World Heritage sites projected that about 47 sites might be affected under 1°C of warming, with this number increasing to 110 and 136 sites under 2°C and 3°C, respectively (Marzeion and Levermann, 2014) <sup>[[#fn:r1045|1045]]</sup> . Similar risks to vast worldwide coastal tourism infrastructure and beach assets remain unquantified for most major tourism destinations and small island developing states (SIDS) that economically depend on coastal tourism. One exception is the projection that an eventual 1 m SLR could partially or fully inundate 29% of 900 coastal resorts in 19 Caribbean countries, with a substantially higher proportion (49–60%) vulnerable to associated coastal erosion (Scott and Verkoeyen, 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r1046|1046]]</sup> .

A major barrier to understanding the risks of climate change for tourism, from the destination community scale to the global scale, has been the lack of integrated sectoral assessments that analyse the full range of potential compounding impacts and their interactions with other major drivers of tourism (Rosselló-Nadal, 2014; Scott et al., 2016b) <sup>[[#fn:r1047|1047]]</sup> . When applied to 181 countries, a global vulnerability index including 27 indicators found that countries with the lowest risk are located in western and northern Europe, central Asia, Canada and New Zealand, while the highest sector risks are projected for Africa, the Middle East, South Asia and SIDS in the Caribbean, Indian and Pacific Oceans (Scott and Gössling, 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r1048|1048]]</sup> . Countries with the highest risks and where tourism represents a significant proportion of the national economy (i.e., more than 15% of GDP) include many SIDS and least developed countries. Sectoral climate change risk also aligns strongly with regions where tourism growth is projected to be the strongest over the coming decades, including sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, pointing to an important potential barrier to tourism development. The transnational implications of these impacts on the highly interconnected global tourism sector and the contribution of tourism to achieving the 2030 sustainable development goals (SDGs) remain important uncertainties.

In summary, climate is an important factor influencing the geography and seasonality of tourism demand and spending globally ( ''very high confidence'' ). Increasing temperatures are projected to directly impact climate-dependent tourism markets, including sun, beach and snow sports tourism, with lesser risks for other tourism markets that are less climate sensitive ( ''high confidence'' ). The degradation or loss of beach and coral reef assets is expected to increase risks for coastal tourism, particularly in subtropical and tropical regions ( ''high confidence'' ).

<div id="section-3-4-9-2"></div>

<span id="energy-systems"></span>