Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-13 (section)

=== 13.8.1 Observed Impacts and Projected Risks ===

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==== 13.8.1.1 Poverty and Social Inequality ====

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While climate change is not the main driver of social inequality in Europe, poor households and marginalised groups are affected more strongly by flooding, heat and drought, as well as health risks due to spreading diseases, than other social groups ( ''medium confidence'' ).

Urban poor and ethnic minorities often settle in more vulnerable settlement zones, and are therefore impacted more by flooding ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Medd--2015|Medd et al., 2015]] ; [[#Župarić-Iljić--2017|Župarić-Iljić, 2017]] ; [[#Efendić--2018|Efendić, 2018]] ; [[#Fielding--2018|Fielding, 2018]] ; [[#Winsemius--2018|Winsemius et al., 2018]] ; [[#Puđak--2019|Puđak, 2019]] ; [[#Inuit%20Circumpolar%20Council--2020|Inuit Circumpolar Council, 2020]] ). Yet, in some Western European residential waterside developments this pattern is reversed by flooding impacting high-income residents more strongly ( [[#Walker--2011|Walker and Burningham, 2011]] ).

The health of the poor is disproportionately affected, for example, during heatwaves in the Mediterranean ( [[#Jouzel--2016|Jouzel and Michelot, 2016]] ). Women, those with disabilities and the elderly are disproportionately affected by heat ( [[#13.7.1|Section 13.7.1]] ). Floods in the Western Balkans in 2014 resulted in heavy metal pollution of water and land threatening the health condition of the poorer rural population ( [[#Filijović--2014|Filijović and Đorđević, 2014]] ). Access to water and sanitation is less available to poorer households and marginalised groups in Europe ( [[#Ezbakhe--2019|Ezbakhe et al., 2019]] ; [[#Anthonj--2020|Anthonj et al., 2020]] ); this effect could be intensified by increasing water scarcity in certain parts of Europe under future climate change ( [[#13.10.3|Section 13.10.3]] ).

Food self-provisioning is a widespread practice in many parts of Europe ( [[#Aleynikov--2014|Aleynikov et al., 2014]] ; [[#Corcoran--2014|Corcoran, 2014]] ; [[#Church--2015|Church et al., 2015]] ; [[#Mustonen--2020|Mustonen and Huusari, 2020]] ), reaching over half of German rural areas ( [[#Vávra--2018|Vávra et al., 2018]] ). While it strengthens resilience for disadvantaged households ( [[#Church--2015|Church et al., 2015]] ; [[#Boost--2017|Boost and Meier, 2017]] ; [[#Promberger--2017|Promberger, 2017]] ; [[#Vávra--2018|Vávra et al., 2018]] ; [[#Ančić--2019|Ančić et al., 2019]] ; [[#Pungas--2019|Pungas, 2019]] ) and renews their local knowledge, it can become a risk in regions with projected crop yield reductions ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Hallegatte--2016|Hallegatte et al., 2016]] ; [[#Quiroga--2016|Quiroga and Suárez, 2016]] ; [[#Myers--2017b|Myers et al., 2017b]] ; [[#Inuit%20Circumpolar%20Council--2020|Inuit Circumpolar Council, 2020]] ), and after extreme weather events ( [[#Filijović--2014|Filijović and Đorđević, 2014]] ).

Energy-poor households often live in thermally inefficient homes and cannot afford air conditioning to adapt to overheating in summer ( [[#Sanchez-Guevara--2019|Sanchez-Guevara et al., 2019]] ; [[#Thomson--2019|Thomson et al., 2019]] ). While energy poverty is much more prevalent in SEU and EEU ( [[#Bouzarovski--2015|Bouzarovski and Petrova, 2015]] ; [[#Pye--2015|Pye et al., 2015]] ; [[#Atsalis--2016|Atsalis et al., 2016]] ; [[#Monge-Barrio--2018|Monge-Barrio and Sánchez-Ostiz Gutiérrez, 2018]] ), climate change will also exacerbate energy poverty in European regions where heating thus far has been the major share of energy costs ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Sanchez-Guevara--2019|Sanchez-Guevara et al., 2019]] ; [[#Randazzo--2020|Randazzo et al., 2020]] ).

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==== 13.8.1.2 Migration and Displacement of People ====

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Most migration and displacement due to climate change is taking place within national borders and single regions (Cross-Chapter Box MIGRATE in Chapter 7). There is ''low confidence'' in climate change contributing to migration from outside Europe into Europe ( [[#Gemenne--2011|Gemenne, 2011]] ; [[#Topilin--2016|Topilin, 2016]] ; [[#Gemenne--2017|Gemenne and Blocher, 2017]] ; [[#Selby--2017|Selby et al., 2017]] ). Some economic models project that asylum applications to the EU might increase by a third at 2.5°C GWL and more than double beyond 4°C GWL by end of the century ( [[#Missirian--2017|Missirian and Schlenker, 2017]] ), but empirical evidence shows that applications might decrease due to growing economic and legal barriers in the capacity of populations to emigrate from Africa or other regions ( [[#Kelley--2015|Kelley et al., 2015]] ; [[#Zickgraf--2018|Zickgraf, 2018]] ; [[#Borderon--2019|Borderon et al., 2019]] ).

Migration of people within Europe is predominantly triggered by economic disparities among European countries ( [[#Fischer--2018|Fischer and Pfaffermayr, 2018]] ). There is ''limited evidence'' and ''low agreement'' for climate-driven impacts on these movements ( [[#Hoffmann--2020|Hoffmann et al., 2020]] ). Small-scale climate-induced displacement within Europe occurs in the aftermath of flood and drought disasters and over short distances ( [[#Cattaneo--2019|Cattaneo et al., 2019]] ). The unequal distribution of future climate risks ( [[#13.1|Section 13.1]] ) and adaptive capacity across European regions may increase pressure for internal migration ( [[#Williges--2017|Williges et al., 2017]] ; [[#Forzieri--2018|Forzieri et al., 2018]] ). For instance, projected SLR ( [[#13.2.1|Section 13.2.1]] ; Cross-Chapter Box SLR in Chapter 3) may result in planned relocation of coastal settlements and inland migration in the UK, the Netherlands and the northern Mediterranean ( [[#Mulligan--2014|Mulligan et al., 2014]] ; [[#Antonioli--2017|Antonioli et al., 2017]] ). The number of people living in areas at risk in Europe is projected to increase with future SSPs increasing exposure ( [[#Merkens--2016|Merkens et al., 2016]] ; [[#Byers--2018|Byers et al., 2018]] ; [[#Harrison--2019|Harrison et al., 2019]] ).

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==== 13.8.1.3 Loss and Damage to Vulnerable Livelihoods in Europe ====

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A number of livelihoods maintaining unique cultures in Europe are particularly vulnerable to climate change (Table 13.2): indigenous communities in the European polar region because of their dependence on cryosphere ecosystems ( ''high confidence'' ) (Cross-Chapter Paper 6; [[#Hayashi--2017|Hayashi, 2017]] ; [[#Huntington--2017|Huntington et al., 2017]] ; [[#Hock--2019|Hock et al., 2019]] ; [[#Meredith--2019|Meredith et al., 2019]] ; [[#Inuit%20Circumpolar%20Council--2020|Inuit Circumpolar Council, 2020]] ; [[#Douville--2021|Douville et al., 2021]] ; [[#Fox-Kemper--2021|Fox-Kemper et al., 2021]] ) and communities dependent on small-scale fisheries, traditional farming and unique cultural landscapes ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Kovats--2014|Kovats et al., 2014]] ; [[#Ruiz-Díaz--2020|Ruiz-Díaz et al., 2020]] ).

'''Table 13.2 |''' Examples of losses and damages to vulnerable livelihoods in Europe, differentiated by category according to non-economic loss and damage (Table SM13.20)

[[File:d153c5777ec429f853610663b40a21d0 IPCC_AR6_WGII_Chapter13_Table_13_2_1.png]] [[File:f9e41cd8c601cae3c2e3d3f08890d4f6 IPCC_AR6_WGII_Chapter13_Table_13_2_2.png]] [[File:a23cd5e94ac6601df19576a01e4218c2 IPCC_AR6_WGII_Chapter13_Table_13_2_3.png]]
For Sámi reindeer, herding impacts cascade due to a lack of access to key ecosystems, lakes and rivers, thereby threatening traditional livelihoods, food security, cultural heritage (e.g., burial grounds, seasonal dwellings and routes), mental health (see Box 13.2; Figure 13.13; [[#Feodoroff--2021|Feodoroff, 2021]] ) and growing costs, for example, as a result of the need for artificial feeding of reindeer.

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==== 13.8.1.4 Cultural and Natural Heritage ====

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Climate change poses a serious threat to the preservation of cultural heritage in Europe, both tangible and intangible ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Haugen--2011|Haugen and Mattsson, 2011]] ; [[#Daire--2012|Daire et al., 2012]] ; [[#Dupont--2013|Dupont and Van Eetvelde, 2013]] ; [[#Macalister--2015|Macalister, 2015]] ; [[#Phillips--2015|Phillips, 2015]] ; [[#Fatorić--2017|Fatorić and Seekamp, 2017]] ; [[#Graham--2017|Graham et al., 2017]] ; [[#Carroll--2018|Carroll and Aarrevaara, 2018]] ; [[#Sesana--2018|Sesana et al., 2018]] ; Iosub et al., 2019; [[#Daly--2020|Daly et al., 2020]] ). At higher GWL, building exteriors and valuable indoor collections become at risk ( [[#Leissner--2015|Leissner et al., 2015]] ). Coastal heritage, such as along the North Sea and Mediterranean, are under water-related threats (see Box 13.1; Cross-Chapter Paper 4; [[#Reimann--2018b|Reimann et al., 2018b]] ; [[#Walsh--2018|Walsh, 2018]] ; [[#Harkin--2020|Harkin et al., 2020]] ).

Disappearing cultural heritage can reduce incomes due to loss of tourism ( [[#Hall--2016|Hall et al., 2016]] ), as exemplified by glacier retreat, for example, in the Swiss Alps and Greenland ( [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/13#CCP5.3.2.4 CCP5.3.2.4] ; [[#Bjorst--2015|Bjorst and Ren, 2015]] ; [[#Bosson--2019|Bosson et al., 2019]] ). Glacier retreat can create a sense of discomfort, loss of sense of place, displacement and anxiety in people ( [[#13.7|Section 13.7]] ; [[#Albrecht--2007|Albrecht et al., 2007]] ; [[#Brugger--2013|Brugger et al., 2013]] ; [[#Allison--2015|Allison, 2015]] ; [[#Jurt--2015|Jurt et al., 2015]] ). Intangible cultural heritage, such as place names, and lost traditional practices can also be affected ( [[#Mustonen--2018|Mustonen, 2018]] ; [[#Dastgerdi--2019|Dastgerdi et al., 2019]] ).

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'''Box 13.2 | Sámi Reindeer Herding in Sweden'''
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Reindeer ( ''Rangifer tarandus'' ) are keystone species in northern landscapes ( [[#Vors--2009|Vors and Boyce, 2009]] ). Reindeer herding is a traditional, semi-nomadic livelihood of the Sámi. Reindeer migrate between seasonal pastures that cover 55% of Sweden and are simultaneously used for multiple other purposes ( [[#Sandström--2016|Sandström et al., 2016]] ). Reindeer herding is recognised as an indigenous right, protected by the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples, several UN conventions and through Swedish national legislation.

Temperatures in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions have increased on average by 2°C over the past 30 years ( ''very high confidence'' ) ( [[#Ranasinghe--2021|Ranasinghe et al., 2021]] ). Future warming is expected to further increase winter precipitation ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Ranasinghe--2021|Ranasinghe et al., 2021]] ) and rain-on-snow events, creating a hard ice crust on the snow after refreezing ( [[#Bokhorst--2016|Bokhorst et al., 2016]] ; [[#Rasmus--2018|Rasmus et al., 2018]] ).

The documented and projected impacts on reindeer are complex and varied. Warming and CO 2 increase result in higher plant productivity ( [[#13.3|Section 13.3]] ), changes in plant community composition and higher parasite harassment; unstable ice conditions affect migration; extreme weather conditions during critical winter months, more frequent forest fires and changes in plant community composition reduce pasture quality ( ''medium confidence'' ) (see Figure Box 13.2.1; [[#Mallory--2018|Mallory and Boyce, 2018]] ). High snow depth and rain-on-snow events impede reindeer access to ground lichen in winter and delay spring green-up during the critical calving period; both cause malnutrition and negative impacts on reindeer health, mortality and reproductive success ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Hansen--2014|Hansen et al., 2014]] ; [[#Forbes--2016|Forbes et al., 2016]] ; [[#Mallory--2018|Mallory and Boyce, 2018]] ). Lower slaughter weights and increased mortality reduce the income of herders ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Tyler--2007|Tyler et al., 2007]] ; [[#Helle--2008|Helle and Kojola, 2008]] ).

Reindeer herders already autonomously adapt to changing conditions through flexible use of pastures and supplementary feeding ( ''high confidence'' ), reducing and thereby hiding some of the negative impacts of climate change ( [[#Uboni--2016|Uboni et al., 2016]] ). However, adaptive herding practices have themselves added significant burden through increased workload, costs and stress ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Furberg--2011|Furberg et al., 2011]] ; [[#Löf--2013|Löf, 2013]] ; Rosqvist et al., 2021). Supplementary feeding increases the risk of infectious diseases and implies culturally undesirable herding practices ( ''low confidence'' ) ( [[#Lawrence--2019|Lawrence and Kløcker Larsen, 2019]] ; [[#Tryland--2019|Tryland et al., 2019]] ).

Rapid land-use change reduces the ability to adapt ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Tyler--2010|Tyler, 2010]] ; [[#Löf--2013|Löf, 2013]] ). National and EU policies expand land uses for mining, wind energy and bioeconomy in the area, causing loss, fragmentation and degradation of pastures, and increasing human disturbance to animals ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Kivinen--2012|Kivinen et al., 2012]] ; [[#Skarin--2014|Skarin and Åhman, 2014]] ; [[#Kivinen--2015|Kivinen, 2015]] ; [[#Skarin--2015|Skarin et al., 2015]] ; [[#Sandström--2016|Sandström et al., 2016]] ; [[#Beland%20Lindahl--2017|Beland Lindahl et al., 2017]] ; [[#Österlin--2020|Österlin and Raitio, 2020]] ). The cumulative impacts of these land uses on pastures are not adequately assessed or recognised in land-use planning ( [[#Kløcker%20Larsen--2017|Kløcker Larsen et al., 2017]] ; [[#Kløcker%20Larsen--2018|Kløcker Larsen et al., 2018]] ). Herding communities face strong barriers to protecting their rights and halting further degradation of pastures ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Allard--2018|Allard, 2018]] ; [[#Kløcker%20Larsen--2019|Kløcker Larsen and Raitio, 2019]] ; [[#Raitio--2020|Raitio et al., 2020]] ). Attempts by herding communities to stop mining projects have led to conflicts with other actors, including racist hate incidences ( [[#Persson--2017|Persson et al., 2017]] ; [[#Beland%20Lindahl--2018|Beland Lindahl et al., 2018]] ). Combined with land-use conflicts, climate impacts cause reduced psycho-social health and increase suicidal thoughts among herders ( ''low confidence'' ) ( [[#Kaiser--2010|Kaiser et al., 2010]] ; [[#Furberg--2011|Furberg et al., 2011]] ).

Reindeer herding is significantly affected by climate change directly and indirectly (Figure Box 13.2.1) ( [[#Pape--2012|Pape and Löffler, 2012]] ; [[#Andersson--2015|Andersson et al., 2015]] ). The cumulative effects of land-use and climate change have already increased vulnerability and reduced the adaptive capacity of reindeer herding to the extent that its long-term sustainability is threatened ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Löf--2013|Löf, 2013]] ; [[#Horstkotte--2014|Horstkotte et al., 2014]] ; [[#Kløcker%20Larsen--2017|Kløcker Larsen et al., 2017]] ).

[[File:6b439541042ee53ca351a4a602ecef69 IPCC_AR6_WGII_Figure_13_Box_13_2_1.png]]

'''Figure Box 13.2.1 |''' '''Cumulative impacts of climate and land-use change on reindeer herding as a traditional, semi-nomadic Sámi livelihood''' '''.''' (Table SM13.21)

Maintaining and improving the solution space to adapt reindeer herding is crucial for reducing existing impacts and projected risks of climate and land-use change ( [[#Andersson--2015|Andersson et al., 2015]] ; [[#Turunen--2016|Turunen et al., 2016]] ; [[#AMAP--2017|AMAP, 2017]] ; [[#Hausner--2020|Hausner et al., 2020]] ). Lack of control over land use is the biggest and most urgent threat to the adaptive capacity of reindeer herding and the right of Sámi to their culture ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Pape--2012|Pape and Löffler, 2012]] ; [[#Andersson--2015|Andersson et al., 2015]] ; [[#Kløcker%20Larsen--2019|Kløcker Larsen and Raitio, 2019]] ).

Box 13.2

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