Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-14 (section)

===== 14.5.10.2.1 Violence and crime =====

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'''Projections of future crime derived from the empirical relationships between temperature and crime in the USA show the potential for increased criminality under RCP8.5 compared with RCP4.5 (''' '''''low confidence''''' ''').''' For RCP8.5, holding all socioeconomic conditions at 2015 levels, violent crime could increase 0.6–2.1% by mid-century and 1.9–4.5% by late century ( [[#Houser--2015|Houser et al., 2015]] ). The rise in property crime is projected to be smaller as property crime flattens at higher temperatures ( [[#Hsiang--2013|Hsiang et al., 2013]] ). Using relationships between crime and monthly temperatures established for five US regions by [[#Harp--2018|Harp and Karnauskas (2018)]] , [[#Harp--2020|Harp and Karnauskas (2020)]] project 18,800 additional violent crimes annually beyond 2014 levels by the end of the 21st century under 1.5°C warming, rising to 48,200 under 4°C warming. Aggregating data by states weighted by population density, [[#Mares--2019|Mares and Moffett (2019)]] project an average annual increase of 0.94% across seven categories of violent and property crime for each anomalous degree Celsius of warming (an average annual increase of about 100,000 crimes). Changing socioeconomic conditions in the future may either reduce or exacerbate the projected contemporaneous relationship between temperature anomalies and crime ( [[#Agnew--2011|Agnew, 2011]] ; [[#Lynch--2020b|Lynch et al., 2020b]] ), whereas adaptation could weaken these relationships.

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