Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-4 (section)

=== FAQ 4.4 | Globally, agriculture is the largest user of water. How will climate change impact this sector, and how can farmers adapt to these changes? ===

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''Climate-induced changes in the global hydrological cycle are already impacting agriculture through floods, droughts and increased rainfall variability, which have affected yields of major crops such as maize, soybeans, rice and wheat. These changes are projected to continue in a warmer world, which will cause yields of rain-fed crops to decline and reduce the amount of water available for irrigation in water-stressed regions. Farmers already use adaptation and coping strategies to manage agricultural water use. Some of the most important adaptation responses are the application of irrigation, on-farm water and soil conservation; changing cropping patterns; adopting improved cultivars; and improved agronomic practices. In many parts of the world, farmers increasingly use Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge to inform their decisions of what to grow, when to grow and how much to irrigate. To offset the risks of market-related volatility coupled with climate change, farmers also adopt economic and financial instruments such as index-based crop insurance. Training and capacity-building programmes and social safety nets are other forms of adaptation that farmers are using to respond to these changes.''

Worldwide, and especially in developing countries, agriculture (including crop cultivation and livestock and fisheries) is the largest water user, accounting for 50–90% of all water use. Moreover, a substantial part of the water used in agriculture is ‘consumptive’ use, which means that the water is ‘consumed’ for crop growth and is not immediately available for other uses. This is different from other sectors, such as energy production, where only a fraction of the water is consumed, and other downstream users can reuse the rest. Agriculture also accounts for a large share of employment in developing countries, with 60–80% of the rural population dependent on agriculture for their livelihoods. Agriculture provides food security for all. This makes farmers and agriculture particularly vulnerable to climate change.

Climate-induced changes in the global hydrological cycle are already impacting agriculture through floods, droughts and increased rainfall variability. For example, loss in yields has been reported for major crops such as maize (by 4.1%), soybeans (by 4.5%), rice (by 1.8%) and wheat (by 1.8%) due to changes in precipitation between 1981 and 2010. In addition, drought has affected both the area under cultivation and the yields of major crops. According to one estimate, globally, there has been a loss of 9–10% of total cereal production due to droughts and other weather extremes. Similarly, floods are one of the significant reasons for crop losses worldwide. Climate change-induced losses in livestock and fisheries have also been documented. In some parts of the world, especially in cold temperate zones, agro-climatic zones have become more conducive to yield growth in crops like maize and soybean due to increases in summer precipitation. Yet, negative impacts far outweigh positive impacts.

Projected impacts on agriculture due to changes in water availability are also severe. For example, yields of rain-fed crops such as maize are projected to decline by one fifth to one third by the end of the century. In contrast, many areas which currently support multiple crops may become unsuitable for rain-fed farming or support only one crop in a year. Irrigation, which is often one of the most effective adaptive strategies against water-induced stress, is also projected to be affected by a reduction of the amount of water available for irrigation in some parts of the world that are already water-stressed or as a result of groundwater depletion in places such as India, North China and the northwestern USA. Overall, future droughts and floods will pose a major risk to food security, and agriculture and impacts will be more severe on countries and communities that are already food insecure.

Given that farmers are already dealing with variability in the amount and timing of rainfall. In many places, demand for agricultural water is greater than supply, and farmers are using many adaptations and coping strategies to meet water demands for their crops, fish and livestock. Some of the most popular adaptation responses around crops and water include:

* changing cropping patterns to less water-intensive crops, and changes in the timing of sowing and harvesting to respond to unfamiliar trends in the onset of rains
* adoption of improved cultivars, such as drought and flood-resistant seed varieties
* improved agronomic practices, including conservation agriculture that helps reduce water application rates
* irrigation and water-saving technologies such as efficient irrigation and on-farm water management techniques
* on-farm water and soil moisture conservation

Most of these measures are beneficial across multiple indicators (water saving, increased incomes, etc.); however, whether they also reduce climate-related risks is not well understood and remains a knowledge gap. Irrigation and changes in crop choices and cultivars are also shown to be effective for future adaptation, especially at 1.5°C global warming, but much less effective at 2°C and 3°C when these responses will not mitigate a large part of the climate risk. Most of these adaptation measures mentioned above are autonomous. However, some, such as improved seeds and cultivars, are supported by national agricultural research agencies, international research coalitions such as the CGIAR [Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research], and private seed companies. In many parts of the world, farmers are also increasingly using IKLK to inform these decisions of what to grow, when to grow and how much to irrigate.

[[File:303da73837a42e90f910931dadee068c IPCC_AR6_WGII_Figure_4_FAQ_4_4_1.png]]

'''Figure FAQ4.4.1 |''' '''Water-related adaptation responses in agriculture sector: benefits, co-benefits with mitigation, and possible maladaptation'''

Given the predominance of market economies worldwide, most farmers also depend on the market to sell their produce, and market fluctuations affect their incomes. In addition, market-related volatility coupled with climate change is a source of increased risk for farmers. Several economic and financial instruments are being used with varying levels of success to offset some of these interlinked impacts. Index-based crop insurance is one such instrument that compensates farmers for losing crops due to hazards such as floods and droughts. However, several limitations in their implementation remain.

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FAQ 4.4

In cases of severe droughts and floods, which have debilitating impacts on already poor and vulnerable populations, national governments provide social safety programmes, such as food or cash-for-work programmes, which are shown to be successful in reducing risks for the most vulnerable people, even though there are often concerns with targeting efficiency. Providing training and capacity building of farmers to adopt new farming practices and technologies to manage risk better are also known to be effective when the training is conceptualised, targeted and implemented in consultation with farmers. Planned adaptation practices include managing weather and market risks through insurance products, social safety nets for vulnerable populations, and providing the right mix of training and capacity building. These adaptation practices are generally implemented by civil society, governments and the private sector.

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